Potential Tropical Storm Debby Could Bring Heavy Rain and Strong Winds to Gulf Coast and SE GA

Photo byNOAA

A developing tropical disturbance in the Caribbean is showing increasing potential to enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico, intensify, and impact areas along the Gulf Coast, likely between Florida and Louisiana. If the system gains a name, it will be designated Tropical Storm Debby. This system has the potential to bring significant rainfall to the eastern Gulf Coast, and depending on its strength, could also generate hazardous winds and a dangerous storm surge.

The west coast of Florida could start experiencing effects from rain and gusty winds as early as Saturday, with the greatest threat expected on Sunday. Should the system stall, impacts might persist into the following week. Historically, flooding from heavy rain is the deadliest hazard associated with tropical storms, and this system could deliver substantial precipitation both along the coast and inland. Some computer models suggest the system could stall near the coast, leading to extreme rainfall, while others predict a quicker northward progression, potentially affecting Georgia and the Carolinas by early to mid-next week.

The system, currently located near Hispaniola, is affecting the Dominican Republic with downpours and could impact Haiti as well. While significant winds have not yet developed, the system appears more organized than before, with increased shower and thunderstorm activity aiding its potential development. The National Hurricane Center estimates a 70 percent chance of the system becoming a named storm.

The future path and intensity of the system remain uncertain as it has yet to form a well-defined center of circulation. This uncertainty complicates forecasts, but the most likely impact zone is between Tampa and New Orleans. If the system moves slowly, it may intensify rapidly over the unusually warm waters of the Gulf, possibly evolving into a severe hurricane. Conversely, if it stalls inland, it could lead to severe flooding even if it doesn’t develop into a named storm.

Additionally, the system might be picked up by the jet stream and progress northward more quickly, which would generally reduce the risk of severe rainfall but could still spread storm impacts to Georgia and the Carolinas. Regardless of the exact path, storm surge and wind impacts are likely near the landfall location.

Attributions: National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service