Sergio Perez: What changed in the 24 hours after the Belgian Grand Prix?

Just 24 hours after Sergio Perez’s underwhelming Belgian Grand Prix, Red Bull made safe his position for the foreseeable – what changed?

Having raced his way to a subdued eighth place from his second-place grid slot at Spa-Francorchamps, it appeared Perez was set for an uncomfortable summer, only for Red Bull to immediately confirm the Mexican will remain in his seat after the August break.

What changed over the course of the Belgian Grand Prix weekend?

There had been weeks of build-up of pressure on Perez, with the 2023 championship runner-up having endured a nightmare second quarter of the season.

The first part of F1 2024 had been stellar – Perez’s form was such that it kept him a very comfortable second place to Max Verstappen in the points standings as the RB20 started life in formidable fashion.

But with upgrades – for Red Bull and the other teams – completely changing the complexion of this year’s title fight as the RB20 fell into the clutches of its pursuers, Perez’s form fell off a cliff.

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Uncomfortable and unhappy with the feel of the car beneath him, Perez crumbled – to the point where he scored just 15 points across six race weekends, including two Sprint races.

It was a fumbling of monumental proportions, sending Perez crashing down the order to sixth after the British Grand Prix.

It was at this point that the pressure on Perez really started to ramp up, with Red Bull’s Helmut Marko pointing to the summer break as being the point at which decisions – if any – would be made about the driver line-ups at the two Red Bull teams.

Speculation mounted about all sorts of clauses, such as Perez needing to be within a certain number of points of Verstappen by the conclusion of the Belgian Grand Prix, or needing to be within a certain number of positions of the Dutch driver by the time the summer break started.

Certainly, there was little doubt left that Perez was on thin ice – his scoring was so low that, even with taking a risk on the likes of Daniel Ricciardo or the rookie Liam Lawson, there appeared to be little to lose for Red Bull by swapping out the Mexican driver.

Perez did little to help his cause over the crucial Hungarian and Belgian grand prix weekends.

Crashing in Hungary qualifying doomed him to a race of recovery, which actually turned into quite a respectable race from Perez as he kept his nose clean en route to seventh with strong pace throughout.

Logging the third-quickest time in qualifying at Spa, moving up to second due to Verstappen’s 10-place grid penalty, Red Bull was thrilled with Perez – perhaps the worst was finally over, and he could finally start helping his team-mate by scoring points and getting in the fight among the frontrunners in a way he had been so conspicuously absent from for so long.

But, come race day, the fade began as Perez failed to move forward.

By the chequered flag, he was eighth – last of the eight drivers driving the four quickest cars on the grid, and, worse, he had been passed by Verstappen as the Dutch driver only moved forward from his 11th-place grid slot.

On Sunday evening in Belgium, it appeared the wheels were fully in motion. Perez had failed to respond to his team urging him to perform at a higher level, and a crucial filming day outing awaited Ricciardo and Lawson at Imola as a last opportunity to impress.

The intention had been to run the filming day outing as a ‘shoot-out’ between the Australian and the Kiwi, with both drivers having had their turns as the frontrunner to be the person to replace Perez if the trigger was pulled.

With nothing to choose between Ricciardo, a seasoned veteran – albeit with questionable form – and Lawson, the promisingly fast – but unproven – rookie waiting in the wings, the shoot-out was to give both the chance to set out their stall and show a clean pair of heels to the other.

But… we never got that far. On Sunday evening at Spa, even Christian Horner appeared to have lost some of his patience with Perez as he debriefed the race with media including PlanetF1.com.

“Starting on the front row, the objective really was, pre-race, we felt that third and fifth would be achievable,” the team boss said.

“We achieved the fifth [before George Russell’s DSQ], but we didn’t achieve the third. So we obviously need to go through the data to understand where his loss of pace was.”

Confirming a meeting between himself and Helmut Marko for Monday, on the agenda of which would be Perez’s form, Horner said he was confused by how the season had unfolded for Perez.

“We’ve got a meeting [Monday], but it’s not just about Checo,” Horner said.

“It’s going to have other topics on the agenda as well, which we always do going into the summer break. For us, the focus is on the Constructors’. That we’ve seen another seven or eight points taken off us again today, we need to turn that around coming out of the break in Zandvoort.

“Checo’s had a tough run over the last few races. What’s so confusing for us is the season started so well for him, and then tailed off.”

Red Bull makes the call: Sergio Perez to remain in his seat

Whatever unfolded during the meeting between Horner and Marko resulted in a very clear decision being made – even before the hungry drivers awaiting their chance to impress got that opportunity.

Rather than let the speculation grow and discomfort fester in the camp for days, if not weeks, longer, Horner made his choice – Perez would stay in his seat. For now.

On Monday afternoon, Horner informed the employees at the Milton Keynes campus that Perez will remain a Red Bull Racing driver after the summer break, while the VCARB line-up also goes unchanged.

The ‘shoot-out’ aspect of the filming day at Imola was also tweaked, with Lawson being taken off filming day duties and, instead, being put behind the wheel of a 2022 AlphaTauri AT03 for a private test under previous car (TPC) regulations.

Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda duly carried out the filming day aspect, while Ayumu Iwasa took over from Lawson for TPC on Thursday.

But why the turnaround, given that all the signs appeared to be there that Red Bull will do what it has done on numerous occasions and make an in-season switch of driver line-up?

Rather than it being down to contractual difficulties or a rumoured intervention by Liberty Media or Carlos Slim (Perez’s extremely wealthy backer) – both of which PlanetF1.com understands to be wide of the mark – the decision appears to be something rather more simple.

The question marks over the potential of Ricciardo and Lawson were simply too big to ignore, with neither representing a clear-cut case that would unquestionably net the team greater results – even if it appeared the team had nothing to lose at this particular junction.

While Ricciardo has improved as the season has gone on, his form is too sporadic, too inconsistent over the course of several seasons, to present a clear step up from Perez – even if the Australian’s loyalty and desire isn’t in question.

Lawson, too, has question marks. While undeniably fast and level-headed – his mentality is constantly singled out for praise within the Red Bull camp – the Kiwi has just five races of data from last year upon which Red Bull can call upon.

Scoring points in the most difficult of these five, Singapore, is a big plus for Lawson but there is a huge difference between standing in as a substitute driver in a relatively low-pressure scenario at a midfield team and being called upon to deliver a Constructors’ Championship over 10 races alongside Max Verstappen, while going up against the seasoned line-ups at McLaren, Mercedes, and Ferrari.

What must be pointed out is the very different approach from Red Bull compared to when founder Dietrich Mateschitz was around.

Up until 2019, Red Bull was well-known for their ruthless approach to driver selections, with young drivers kept under intense pressure to deliver, and immediately, or risk being discarded entirely.

Drivers performing more strongly than Perez have recently found themselves cast aside, with the Mexican driver perhaps even being given a little too much understanding at a team hell-bent on scoring yet another championship.

Does this point to Horner being more sentimental in his approach, willing to assess and judge people’s potential on their personalities and traits, historic or otherwise, rather than being solely focused on metrics such as the numbers and data?

The fact Red Bull has been willing to be more understanding of Perez points to this possibility, or a desire to distance the team from its formerly ruthless approach.

For now, Perez has another lifeline, although Horner’s statement from Monday makes it clear that the Mexican can’t just relax until season end.

“Checo remains a Red Bull Racing driver despite recent speculation and we look forward to seeing him perform at tracks he has previously excelled at after the summer break,” read Horner’s statement, with an eye to looking ahead to the likes of Monza, Baku, and Singapore.

But if Perez continues to fumble the bag at circuits where Red Bull knows he can be fast and has even equaled or beaten Verstappen in the recent past – further allowing McLaren the chance to close in or even overcome the team – then there is still the possibility of driver changes before the end of 2024.

But Perez is being given every opportunity to respond and PlanetF1.com understands changes are on the way within Perez’s environment to try to help the Mexican driver perform at his best.

The loyalty being shown towards Perez is somewhat unprecedented in Red Bull’s two-decade history in F1, but it shows the high regard in which the team has held him in the past.

Having had slumps in every season he’s raced with the Milton Keynes-based squad, Perez has shown a knack for being able to bounce back, and, having weathered more than a quarter of the season with an underperforming driver, Red Bull seems to believe the worst may be over.

Only time will tell whether this turns back to reward Red Bull, or becomes a prime F1 example of the sunk-cost fallacy.

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