Shapiro? Buttigieg? Why Harris should pick — or pass over — contenders for VP

Kamala Harris' first major decision as her party’s nominee is picking a running mate who can help her not only govern, but win .

“It really does come down to a political calculus,” said former Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana, a veteran of two Democratic veepstakes, including Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign, where he finished behind Joe Biden and Sen. Tim Kaine . “The modern thinking is you reinforce your message and you do things at the macro level.”

It’s a media play as much as an electoral one. The last time a vice presidential pick was widely seen as helping the ticket carry a state was when Lyndon Johnson helped bring in Texas voters for John F. Kennedy in 1960. Still, as Bayh put it, “You don’t get bonus electors for running up the score in California.”

If Harris is looking for help in a swing state, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro or Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly would fit the bill. Of course, Harris might also prioritize choosing a partner who can help her govern — someone like Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, with his extensive relations in Congress, or Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, with his record working in the domestic policy machinery of the executive branch.

Here, a list of reasons for Harris to pick — or pass over — each candidate widely viewed as on her short list.

Gov. Josh Shapiro

Reasons to pick

The first-term Pennsylvania governor won the most crucial of swing states by nearly 15 points in 2022, and he could help Harris moderate her image. In 2020, running as state attorney general, he outperformed Biden, winning more votes than any other statewide candidate there in history. Harris could park him in his home state and the broader Rust Belt and capitalize on his unique in-state brand. During his gubernatorial bid, Shapiro showed an ability to campaign and resonate in rural parts of his state.

Shapiro raised big bucks during his own campaign — including $73 million in 2022. A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll this week found that he has one of the highest favorable ratings among swing state Democrats among potential picks , second only to Pete Buttigieg.

Shapiro, who is Jewish, is conversant in talking about faith more broadly in a way that some of his fellow Democrats haven’t always been as capable or comfortable of doing.

A vocal activist faction in the Democratic Party has come out strongly against Shapiro because of his outspoken support for Israel. He has criticized Benjamin Netanyahu’s government but also played a role in disbanding pro-Palestinian encampments on the campus of the University of Pennsylvania. Shapiro’s presence on the ticket could fracture swaths of the Democratic coalition.

While labor leaders in Pennsylvania — including some teachers unions — are backing Shapiro, some public education advocates critical of his support for school vouchers have urged Harris not to pick him. Shapiro also has faced pushback from the National Women’s Defense League about his handling of sexual harassment accusations in his own office after a Cabinet member allegedly harassed and retaliated against a female aide — all of which could complicate Harris’ image as a defender of women.

Then, there is the matter of experience. Harris’ campaign said she is looking for a governing partner with an executive’s profile. Shapiro is not even two years into his first term, and doesn’t yet have a well-defined national brand.

Sen. Mark Kelly

Reasons to pick

On paper, vice presidential picks don’t get better: Kelly, 60, is a an honest-to-God former NASA astronaut and Navy captain and the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords, who survived an assassination attempt, in addition to being a popular senator from a crucial swing state.

He has a proven record of appealing to the maverick state’s independents, an electoral brand that could be exported to other swing states across the map. And he can also help Harris raise big bucks, having banked nearly $200 million during the course of his two Senate runs in 2020 and 2022.

But then there’s Kelly’s arguably biggest value add: His border-state bona fides could help Harris navigate one of her biggest vulnerabilities. He voted for the Senate’s bipartisan border deal, and embattled Democrats like Sen. Jon Tester , facing a tough reelect in Montana, back his selection . It’s not executive experience. But it reflects Kelly’s deep familiarity with an issue of significance not just in the campaign, but in governing after.

Kelly isn’t warmly embraced by labor, even though he has its backing in his home state. Though he signaled his support after the veepstakes kicked off, Kelly was not a co-sponsor of the Protecting the Right to Organize Act. “I just don’t see how she can put somebody in who does not have a strong pro-labor record ,” said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.)

There is also the matter of Kelly vacating a key swing-state Senate seat when he is up for reelection in 2028. “I don’t think it’ll be an issue,” he told reporters this week. “I think we’ve got a great slate of other Democrats, but this is not about me.”

Gov. Tim Walz

Reasons to pick

The affable governor of Minnesota — a linchpin of the Blue Wall — brings a journeyman’s résumé that some Americans could find reassuring and relatable: teacher, high school football coach, member of Congress, high-ranking member of the National Guard. The former National Rifle Association member could also speak to Republican-leaning independents in a way that isn’t alienating.

Walz, who served 12 years in Congress, knows his way around Washington and, as governor, demonstrated an ability to enact a progressive agenda in Minnesota.

On top of that, Walz showed Democrats in recent days that he can land effective hits on the opposition, casting Sen. JD Vance and his allies as “weird,” a lunchroom taunt that Harris and other party leaders have since run with. And it’s not difficult to imagine Walz delivering a robust performance in a vice presidential debate.

Walz’s record of enacting progressive policies in Minnesota would reinforce Harris’ progressivism in a way that the GOP could make it an issue, including supporting tuition-free colleges and universal school lunches.

It’s a hit Walz is preparing for. “What a monster! Kids are eating and having full bellies so they can go learn and women are making their own health care decisions,” Walz said in a joking response to the idea that he’s too progressive.

The other downside is that Walz is relatively unknown nationally except among the most dialed-in of Democrats. And while Trump aspires to flip Minnesota, it is not one of the most competitive battlegrounds — like Shapiro’s Pennsylvania.

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg

Reasons to pick

At 42, Buttigieg is among the Democratic Party’s youngest but also most vetted picks, having navigated four years in a Senate-confirmed role in the Biden administration, his own presidential campaign and any number of national media interviews in unfriendly territory on Fox News.

Buttigieg, a new resident of swingy Michigan and formerly of deep-red Indiana, would bring strong Rust Belt vibes, and he performed well in conservative-leaning areas of Iowa during the state’s Democratic caucuses in 2020. He is, like Vance, a millennial Midwesterner with a military background, having served in Afghanistan in the Navy Reserves.

Buttigieg also brings in potential donors. He cultivated a money machine for a presidential campaign in 2020, raising nearly $100 million. When Harris became the party’s likely nominee, he urged those donors to back her.

And if Harris wants a governing partner, Buttigieg has spent recent years implementing a historic infusion of cash backing new infrastructure projects in the Biden administration and as the head of a department with 50,000 employees.

Republicans would quickly make Buttigeig the face of high-profile transportation meltdowns in the Biden era, including mass flight delays and the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, even as he introduced consumer protections for air travelers and with the train derailment response falling under another federal agency’s purview.

His presence on the ticket would limit it to veterans of the Biden administration — not exactly suggestive of change. He would also be the first openly gay candidate on a national ticket, testing swing voters’ attitudes on the matter.

Gov. Andy Beshear

Reasons to pick

The 46-year-old Kentucky governor is the rare Democrat with red-state appeal, having won statewide in Kentucky three times. That makes him among a few candidates on Democrats’ short list who could moderate more progressive elements of Harris' brand. Beshear could prove a capable foil to his would-be GOP counterpart, Vance , who also built his brand on his Kentucky background: Beshear overperformed in Appalachian rural counties in 2023.

Beshear’s 2023 race advanced Democratic arguments for abortion rights, no easy task in a red state, and something that could complement Harris’ campaign.

“I want America to know what a Kentuckian is, and what they look like, because let me just tell you that JD Vance ain’t from here,” Beshear said during an interview with MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” Beshear is reportedly being vetted for the position.

Beshear won both of his gubernatorial races narrowly, and Kentucky is nowhere close to approximating a swing state. He has little profile nationally. And he may lack some of the charisma and dynamism of his competitors, as his veepstakes auditions on television have been occasionally stilted.

He also lacks the D.C. governance experience that the Harris campaign has said it is looking for: That of a “governing partner who has the experience to step into the job and be effective on day one.”