The UK’s beaches have been packed with emergency services around the country, with authorities issuing warnings over temperatures and swimming safety in recent weeks. But could the heat be short-lived? And could another weather extreme be on its way soon?
That is the opinion of weather experts, who have weighed in on the possibility of an icy blast hitting the UK in the coming months. Later this year, the ‘Beast from the East’ is expected to batter Britain, with plummeting temperatures for months on end.
According to the Met Office , the extreme weather phenomenon La Niña starts forming in April-June, around every three years, and happens when sea temperature drops out in the equatorial Pacific. When it happens, it normally leads to brutally cold periods from late autumn and all through the winter.
According to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Centre, it is expected to continue for the next several months, with La Niña favoured to emerge during August-October (in the Southern Hemisphere) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (79% chance during November-January).
So what is the naturally occurring El Niño weather system and its opposing phase, La Niña?
What are the El Niño and La Niña weather events?
El Niño and La Niña refer to fluctuation in the Earth’s climate system, according to the Met Office . They mean little boy and little girl in Spanish respectively. It is believed that they got their names from South American fishermen in the 1600s, who noticed periods of unusually warm water. It was initially called El Niño de Navidad (Navidad means Christmas in Spanish) because El Niño typically peaks around December.
During El Niño the sea surface temperature rises, usually in the central-east equatorial Pacific, and it typically occurs every few years. During this phase, the tropical eastern Pacific will experience warmer than average weather.
On the other hand, La Niña is when the sea surface temperature becomes cooler than average, with sea temperatures often dropping by 3C to 5C below average. This results in cooler than average weather in the tropical eastern Pacific.
The Earth’s climate system experiences neutral phases when the temperatures are closer to the long-term averages.
What are the impacts of El Niño and La Niña?
El Niño and La Niña affect weather around the world. For example, El Niño can increase the chance of the UK having cold winters but it also limits the development of tropical storms in the North Atlantic. These phases can last anywhere from around nine months to a few years, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration . According to the WMO, the Earth has been in the La Niña phase for the past three years, which has “temporarily reined in the longer-term warming trend”.
However, La Niña ended in March 2023 and El Niño developed in June 2023.
There is a 98 per cent chance of at least one of the next five years breaking temperature records, as well as a 98 per cent chance that the next five years will be hotter on average than the past five years.
Research from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has found that it is highly likely that the world will experience record-breaking temperatures in the next five years. Scientists have said that the increasing global temperatures are down to both human activity as well as the developing El Niño weather system.
“A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” said the WMO’s secretary-general, Professor Petteri Taalas, in the WMO report .
He added: “This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment . We need to be prepared.”
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