USA Olympic basketball scenarios: How Puerto Rico game impacts quarterfinal matchups, path to gold medal

The United States men's national basketball team wasted no time as it took care of business to start the 2024 Paris Olympics.

After pulling away for a 26-point win over Serbia in the group play opener, Team USA clinched a spot in the quarterfinals with a 17-point win over South Sudan.

With a quarterfinal spot clinched, Team USA is one step closer to its ultimate goal of winning a fifth consecutive gold medal. However, as the competition at the tournament has shown, the path to winning won't be easy.

Who stands in the way of Team USA's medal aspirations? Here is a look at the potential path for the Americans as they look to finish on top of the basketball world.

MORE: Complete list of NBA players at the Paris Olympics

USA Olympic basketball scenarios

Here is a look at the standings and point differential for the top three teams in group play. Team USA has helped itself with its win differential but needs to beat Puerto Rico by at least four points to take the top spot from Germany.

MORE: Explaining Olympic basketball's tiebreaker rules

What happens if Team USA beats Puerto Rico to finish first?

Team USA will need to beat Puerto Rico by at least four points to earn the top seed among undefeated teams because of the point differential tiebreaker.

That will put Team USA and Germany on opposite sides of the bracket, saving a potential meeting for the gold medal game.

As the top finisher, Team USA would face one of two third-place qualifiers that advanced to the quarterfinals.

Per Olympic basketball rules, a team cannot draw another team from the same group in the quarterfinals, meaning Team USA could not have faced a third-place South Sudan or Serbia to open the knockout stage. The same goes for Germany, which could not face Brazil, as it was also in Group B.

With that in mind, Team USA's opponent to open the quarterfinals will be Brazil, which went 1-2 in Group B but had a point differential of -7.

What happens if Team USA loses to Puerto Rico?

Team USA will be heavily favored against Puerto Rico but a loss would not be a fatal blow to its aspirations.

The margin of victory in its first two group play games means that Team USA would likely still be the top finisher in the group, barring a massive decision in the game between Serbia and South Sudan.

Team USA has already clinched a spot in the quarterfinals so a loss would only drop Team USA out of a top-two spot, clearing the way for undefeated Canada to have a top-two spot.

MORE: Ranking Team USA's biggest threats at the Paris Olympics

Olympics basketball knockout stage schedule

Quarterfinals

Semifinals

Finals