Summer of Soccer best bets: USWNT faces a familiar foe in Japan

International soccer tournaments are set blind — teams are broken into seeds based on performance and selected randomly — but somehow, the same old matchups seem to happen all the time. The 2018 men's World Cup saw Brazil, Switzerland and Serbia face each other in the group stage; the 2022 World Cup saw them face each other again. Argentina and Nigeria are drawn together so often that their fans have started referring to one another as cousins. (The two met in World Cup play in 1994, 1998, 2010, 2014 and 2018, five of the last six World Cups Nigeria qualified for.)

Women's soccer has its own seemingly random but endlessly repeated cross-continental rivalry: the United States versus Japan. Its next chapter will be written when the two teams meet in France this weekend to fight for a spot in the Olympic semifinals.

While the USWNT and Japan have seen a lot of each other over the years, it's been over a decade since they last met in Olympic play. But that game — a gold-medal decider at London 2012 — was as spicy as games come. The USWNT won 2-1 thanks to a Carli Lloyd brace, but Japan should've had a penalty for a clear handball in the USWNT box in the first half. This was pre-VAR, though, and the referee missed the call.

The USWNT viewed it as redemption, still smarting from Japan winning the World Cup a year earlier; Japan, understandably, viewed it as something of a disgrace. So while there's plenty of standard-issue baggage coming into this oft-played match, there's a healthy dose of Olympic-specific irritation, too. Japan will be eager to avenge its controversial loss in the 2012 final.

Both teams enter this quarterfinal high on positive momentum. The USWNT won all three of its group stage matches, beating difficult opponents like Zambia, Australia and Germany by massive margins. (Zambia and Australia played out a 6-5 draw with one another and the USWNT still managed to outscore both of them.) Japan, meanwhile, beat Nigeria and Brazil before falling 2-1 to world champion Spain. That loss stung, especially considering Japan beat Spain 4-0 in the 2023 World Cup, but the match was close and the Japanese women took a lot of positives out of their performance.

The USWNT has a clear lead in the head to head against Japan: it's 31-1-8 all-time. But the global women's soccer landscape has never been as balanced as it is today, and the USWNT is still working through the kinks of hiring a new manager and dropping its long-serving legends. Will Japan be able to pull off a historic upset to keep this rivalry fresh? We'll find out on Saturday.

In the meantime, we think the best bets are here:

A win, but not one without concession. The USWNT is highly favored here for a reason: it's looked fabulous in Olympic play. But despite its strong goalscoring record the USWNT has conceded goals in two of its three matches thus far. Japan has always been a strong goalscoring outfit, so we're backing a USWNT win with at least one Japan goal at +220 .

Rodman's moment in the sun. If the 2023 World Cup was all about Sophia Smith, the 2024 Olympics have been all about Trinity Rodman. The Washington Spirit striker has had a blistering start to her tournament and looks to be in fine form. We're backing her as an anytime goalscorer at +220.

A USA debut for Mina Tanaka. There are many fascinating players on this Japan side, but we're especially interested in striker Mina Tanaka . She impressed in the World Cup last summer, scoring a goal against eventual champion Spain, and recently signed a contract to join NWSL expansion team the Utah Royals. This will be Tanaka's biggest American audience prior to her NWSL switch, and we think she'll be hungry to impress--especially since many of her future NSWL golden boot competitors will be playing against her on the USWNT. We're backing her as an anytime goalscorer at +260.

The USWNT will take on Japan in an Olympic quarterfinal in Paris on Saturday, Aug. 3 at 9 a.m ET.