Will extreme heat push grocery prices higher?

Over the past few months, shoppers felt some relief at the grocery store with food prices either falling or staying relatively steady. The price of fresh fruits and vegetables was down 1% in June, compared to June 2023, according to the Consumer Price Index.

But there's been little relief from the heat.

According to NASA , July 22 was the hottest day on record. The record-breaking heat is taking a toll on many different aspects of life, including for the nation's farmers.

"It does make them ripen a little faster, so we have to get rid of fruit a little faster," said Megan Fields, a farm manager at Eckert's Orchard in Versailles, Kentucky.

"Because of the intense heat, you have produce that shrivels in certain areas," said Danny Munch, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation. He said fruits such as table grapes and blueberries are more likely to be impacted in persistent time periods of heat.

The sweltering temperatures also impact foot traffic. At Baugher's Market in Westminster, Maryland, assistant manager Nick Wilhide said their bread and butter is "pick-your-own" traffic, but it's waning.

"No one wants to come and pick peaches, or cherries or blackberries or whatever, in 100-degree heat," he said.

When thinking about extreme heat and crops, Ohio State University agricultural economist Seungki Lee said there is added stress on the plants.

"We usually call it threshold, or maybe some tipping points, that the plant cannot survive anymore or cannot be productive as usual," he said.

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Lee adds we can't ignore the human side, with heat also impacting farm labor.

"They will be challenged with finding people who will be actually stressed by this extreme heat," he said.

A study by the Atlantic Council found the supply of corn, one of the top-produced crops in the U.S., could fall about 10% percent by 2050 due to higher temperatures and reduced labor.

Its study found, "Reduced corn supply could cause prices to rise, resulting in higher prices for foods and fuels that use corn as a major input."

According to the American Farm Bureau Federation , production costs for corn, wheat and soybeans are all up 25% or more compared to 2019, much higher than peak inflation for consumers.

"We've seen in a lot of industries that we've started to import more fruits and vegetables into the United States than we used to," Munch said. "Not all of that is weather related. Some of it's because labor costs are so high."

Lee said extreme heat in other countries will shake up the market as well.

"Price is actually kind of jumping around, which is really challenging farmers to make their financial strategy at the end," he said.

Heat is not the only factor impacting food prices: the Farm Bureau said wet conditions, wildfires, and invasive species — particularly in citrus — can push prices higher.

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But Munch said the heat doesn't always spell trouble.

"Even though it's been very hot out there, corn and soybeans have actually looked pretty decent," he said. "The conditions of 'good' and 'excellent,' that is rated by USDA, are actually higher this year at this time of year than it was last year."

Fields pointed out one perk of the heat: it's "good for the fruit because it brings that sugar content," she said.