Taking a closer look at Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s recent hot streak

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is having one heck of a season.

Since his breakout year in 2021, where he finished second in AL MVP voting and smashed 48 home runs with 111 RBI, Guerrero has struggled to maintain a consistent level of performance. His OPS, which was a stellar 1.002 in 2021, dropped to .818 in 2022 and further dipped to .788 in 2023. Despite showing flashes of brilliance, he couldn't sustain his peak form.

This year, however, Guerrero has flipped the script. Through 110 games, he's posted an OPS of .915, emerging as one of the only bright spots in Toronto’s lineup this season. Guerrero is currently on a tear, arguably playing the best baseball of his career.

During his ongoing 16-game hit streak, he's been slashing .525/.588/1.136 while hitting nine home runs and driving in 18 RBI. His metrics this season also resemble those of his 2021 campaign more than the last two years, with a wOBA of .391 (compared to .419 in 2021) and a wRC+ of 157 (down slightly from 166 in 2021). Guerrero's ability to sustain this high level of play throughout the season is an incredibly promising sign for Blue Jays fans.

Impact on the Blue Jays’ future

Guerrero and the Blue Jays reached an arbitration agreement this past offseason, settling on a $19.9M salary for 2024. Although the two parties have not made much progress on a long-term extension, the Blue Jays front office has made it clear that they intend to keep Guerrero around.

GM Ross Atkins reiterated after Wednesday’s trade deadline that they had no intention of trading Guerrero and would like for him to be a part of the team's future.

Atkins' actions back up his words, as the Blue Jays focused on acquiring major league-ready talent at the trade deadline, signaling their intent to compete in the near future. If Guerrero can sustain this level of performance into next season, the Blue Jays could not only contend for a playoff spot but also make a legitimate push for the World Series. That's the magnitude of Guerrero's impact on this team.