Outsmart your league-mates by drafting this guy at his current ADP
Ole Reliable
For the past ten seasons, Mike Evans has been as steady as they come. He has had ten straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons and has never finished the year worse than a fantasy WR2. Evans clearly benefited from the few seasons he had with Tom Brady, but he also put together some solid seasons with below-average quarterbacks. (Mike Glennon, Josh McCown, Ryan Fitzpatrick, etc.) Although an aging veteran, Evans is a top fantasy asset and should be a great selection at his current ADP.
Should Evans’ Age be a Concern?
It is common for fantasy managers to move off of players when they get into their thirties. The age cliff is approaching, but is it too soon to move off Evans? Evans had a remarkable fantasy season in 2023 and showed no decline in production. He just ended the season as the WR7 but is being drafted as the WR14 .
In 2023, Mike Evans was among the top wide receivers in numerous statistical categories. Here is how he would compare to the 51 qualifying players with a minimum of 89 targets:
1,255 receiving yards (9th in the league)
13 receiving touchdowns (T-1st)
79 receptions (T-24th)
15.9 yards per reception (6th)
2.32 yards per route run (12th)
ADOT of 15 yards (1st)
*per PFF
While his reception total is not among the elite, Mike Evans has never really been a huge reception guy. His game has been a lot of downfield targets and touchdowns. His ADOT and yards per reception prove he is still the same Mike Evans we have seen for the past decade. His being another year older should not be a concern at this point.
Davante Adams or Mike Evans?
Davante Adams and Mike Evans are older receivers with fairly expensive price tags. Adams is currently being drafted in the middle of the second round as the WR10 and Evans can be found in the middle to end of the third round. It is good to draft players who are known commodities since sometimes the safe pick is the right pick. Adams and Evans have shown elite upside and have been productive fantasy contributors for quite some time. But, who is the better pick?
Among the same 51 players with a minimum of 89 targets last season, Davante Adams had:
1,144 receiving yards (15th in the league)
8 receiving touchdowns (T-7th)
103 receptions (T-10th)
11.1 yards per reception (T-34th)
1.97 yards per route run (25th)
ADOT of 11.1 yards (22nd)
*Per PFF
Davante Adams has started to show signs of decline and finished behind Evans in every category listed other than receptions. While his reception total is valuable, Adams did not produce like the elite receiver he has been in years past. His signs of slowing down and still being drafted as the WR10 show how much more of a value pick Mike Evans is as the WR14.
2024 Outlook
Mike Evans is still Mike Evans and is as good of a pick in round three as anyone. He has the same upside as everyone else around him and is still a safer pick. For example, Drake London is being drafted before him as the WR12 due to hype alone, yet never produced a WR2 season or even registered 1,000 yards in a season. Nico Collins is part of a crowded receiver room and being drafted as the WR13 , and Deebo is as boom/bust as they come in an offense that features Christian McCaffery, yet is being drafted right after Evans as the WR15 .
Even if Baker Mayfield regresses with the loss of OC Dave Canales, Mike Evans should still be among the top wide receivers in fantasy. He has been the most consistent piece of the Buccaneers offense and arguably in the NFL. There is no reason why he cannot have an 11th straight 1,000-yard season and finish as a top-12 fantasy receiver again.
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