Ukraine war briefing: Waves of Russian bombings and infantry assaults drive major gains in east

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  Russian assaults are raising pressure on the strategic eastern logistics hub of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, Ukraine says, as waves of guided bombs and infantry lead to some of Moscow’s largest territorial gains since the spring. The push is fuelling a surge in civilians fleeing, with requests for evacuation in the area increasing about tenfold over the past two weeks, according to a volunteer helping people leave. Russia’s gains of about 57 sq km (22 sq miles) in the space of a week are the third-largest recorded since April after they made only modest gains in June, Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with the Black Bird Group, told Reuters.

• Russian forces are using warplanes and artillery fire to support waves of infantry assaults in the area near Pokrovsk , a spokesperson for Ukraine’s National Guard said in televised remarks. “These assaults are not always supported by armoured vehicles, often it is infantry assaults,” Ruslan Muzychuk said on Friday, flagging the bombing by Russian warplanes as a particular problem. “It’s a significant threat … because the Pokrovsk and Toretsk fronts are taking a large share of the daily aviation strikes carried out on the positions of Ukrainian defenders.” Russian forces have been steadily inching forward on several fronts in the eastern Donetsk region, staging particularly fierce attacks near Pokrovsk, with Kyiv’s troops stretched thin.

• Russia’s defence minister said its forces had captured five settlements in the Donetsk region in the past week . Russia’s use of warplanes to fire guided bombs was crucial for Moscow’s battlefield tactics, said Valeriy Romanenko, a Kyiv-based aviation expert, who compared it to a “conveyor belt”. “The Russians are not piercing our defence, they are pushing it back. They are advancing 100, 150, 200 metres every day using this tactic: dropping guided bombs, then a ‘meat assault’, [and if those are] repelled, dropping guided bombs again, a ‘meat assault’ again.” He said the supply of US F-16 fighters to Ukraine could disrupt that dynamic if the jets were able to threaten Russian warplanes, but that such operations were unlikely for now given the risk it would present for the new pilots operating expensive jets.

• Ukraine said on Friday it had received the bodies of 250 killed soldiers in one of the largest exchanges of remains since Russia invaded in February 2022. Kyiv said it handed over the remains of 38 Russian soldiers in the deal, which was mediated by International Red Cross. DNA analysis will be used to identify the bodies before releasing them into the custody of the families for funeral ceremonies and burials.

• Ilya Yashin, a Russian activist jailed for his opposition to the war in Ukraine, said he had not given his consent to being deported from Russia in a prisoner exchange and warned that the move would encourage president Vladimir Putin to take more “political prisoners”. “What happened on August 1 is not an exchange,” he told reporters in Bonn. “This is my expulsion from Russia against my will. My first wish in Ankara was to buy a ticket and go back to Russia.” Yashin’s comments came as Russian dissidents freed as part of Thursday’s historic prisoner swap between Moscow and the west shared their mixed feelings about the deal and vowed to continue their political activity from abroad.

• Ukraine’s central bank has predicted emigration levels this year will be far higher than previously forecast , largely due to power cuts caused by Russian attacks on energy facilities. “The worsening of the energy situation and slow normalisation of the economic conditions will lead to a larger outflow of migrants abroad in 2024 and 2025 than previously expected,” the National Bank of Ukraine said in a report. It predicted there would be a net outflow of 400,000 people this year, while next year’s outflow would be 300,000. The bank predicted a net return of 400,000 people in 2026 but said the process would be “gradual”.

• The US rating agency S&P cut Ukraine’s credit rating to “selective default” on Friday, citing the country’s failure to make a coupon payment on an existing bond. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has signed a law allowing Ukraine to suspend foreign debt payments until 1 October, paving the way for a moratorium to be called that would formally mark a sovereign default.

• This article was amended on 5 August 2024. An earlier version said that the Russian activist Ilya Yashin was jailed for supporting the war in Ukraine. In fact he was jailed for his opposition to the war in Ukraine.