US prepares for war as Biden warns Israel to end escalatory cycle with Iran

BIDEN ‘STOP BSing ME’: President Joe Biden returns to the White House from his Delaware home this afternoon to convene a meeting of his national security team, including presumptive presidential nominee Kamala Harris , to review the spiraling events in the Middle East, where Iran is threatening a major attack on Israel in retaliation for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week.

Israel has not confirmed it was responsible for the assassination, which initial reports suggested was carried out by a remote-controlled bomb planted in a guest house where Haniyeh was staying. Still, Iran says it was the result of a “short-range projectile” fired from outside the guest house.

Today’s 2:15 p.m. Situation Room meeting comes after Biden had what he called a “very direct” conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Thursday in which he indicated the assassination undercut his efforts to bring an end to the war on Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. “It’s not helped,” Boiden said at Joint Base Andrews Thursday. “We had the basis for a ceasefire. He should move on it and should move on it now.”

The phone call was described as tense by Israel’s Channel 12 news , which reported that at one point, Biden told Netanyahu to “stop bullshitting me” and warned him not to take U.S. support for granted.

Biden has a phone call scheduled this morning with Jordan’s King Abdullah II , whose military helped intercept Iranian missiles and drones fired toward Israel in April.

BIDEN WILL MEET WITH NATIONAL SECURITY TEAM AS MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS MOUNT

NETANYAHU: ISRAEL IN 'A MULTIFRONT WAR': As the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia launched a drone attack on northern Israel today, Netanyahu said Israel is ready for whatever comes next, as the region appears poised on the brink of a wider war.

"The state of Israel is in a multi-front war against Iran's axis of evil. We are striking every one of its arms with great force. We are prepared for any scenario — both offensively and defensively," Netanyahu told his Cabinet yesterday. "I reiterate and tell our enemies: We will respond, and we will exact a heavy price for any act of aggression against us, from whatever quarter."

Meanwhile, the U.S. is working furiously behind the scenes to keep the conflict from boiling over. "We still believe a ceasefire deal is the best way to bring this war to an end. It's also, we believe, very possible. We still believe the gaps are narrow enough to close," John Kirby , White House national security communications adviser, said on Fox News Sunday.

Kirby said that while the Biden administration is working to prevent the war from escalating to become a broader, regional war, it is also making sure Israel has what it needs to defend itself.

"Look, when the supreme leader says he's going to avenge, we have to take that seriously," Kirby said. "Now, I don't know what they're going to do or when they're going to do it, but we got to make darn sure that we're ready and that we have the capabilities in the region to help Israel defend itself and quite frankly defend our own people, our own facilities, our own national security interests."

US AND ALLIES PREPARE TO DEFEND ISRAEL AS NETANYAHU SAYS IT'S ALREADY IN 'MULTI-FRONT WAR' WITH IRAN

US DISPATCHES CARRIER, MISSILE DEFENSES, F-22S: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spokes by phone yesterday with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant to "reiterate ironclad U.S. support for Israel's security and right to self-defense against threats from Iran," according to a Pentagon readout of the call.

"They discussed U.S. force posture moves that the department is taking to bolster protection for U.S. forces, support the defense of Israel, and deter and de-escalate broader tensions in the region," the Pentagon said.

In a statement Friday, Sabrina Singh , the Pentagon's deputy press secretary, said Austin has ordered additional U.S. assets to be deployed to the region, including the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, which arrived in the Arabian Gulf over the weekend.

"Additionally, Secretary Austin has ordered additional ballistic missile defense-capable cruisers and destroyers to the U.S. European Command and U.S. Central Command regions," Singh said. "The secretary has also ordered the deployment of an additional fighter squadron to the Middle East, reinforcing our defensive air support capability."

According to several reports , a squadron of U.S. Air Force F-22s will forward deploy in the region.

US ANNOUNCES NEW MILITARY DEPLOYMENTS TO AID ISRAELI DEFENSE

Good Monday morning, and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre ( @jamiejmcintyre ) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie . Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com . If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email, and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre .

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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Richard Marles at the Pentagon this afternoon. The 4 p.m. meeting is a prelude to tomorrow’s Australia-U.S. Ministerial Consultations, known as AUSMIN, to be held in Annapolis, Maryland.

Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken will host Marles and Australian Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong for the daylong talks. “The ministerial and related bilateral meetings will build on the commitments made during the official visit of Prime Minister Albanese to the United States in October 2023 and last year’s AUSMIN,” the State Department said in a statement .

WARGAMING THE IRAN ATTACK SCENARIO: The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, is suggesting that Iran may mount a more robust attack on Israel, compared to April when Israel, the U.S., and other allies effectively neutralized Iran’s air assault by shooting down almost all of the 170 drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles launched at Israel.

“Iran and the Axis of Resistance will probably conduct an attack that is more escalatory than the drone and missile attack that Iran conducted against Israel in April 2024,” the ISW said in its latest Iran update , outlining four possible scenarios.

Iran could increase the volume of projectiles fired at Israel. Iran could fire more drones and missiles from Iranian territory or instruct its proxy and partner militias across the Middle East to fire more. Drones and missiles fired from Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria would be much harder to intercept than those launched from Iran, given the shorter distances and flight times to Israel. U.S. and Israeli forces would have significantly less time than they did in April 2024 to intercept those projectiles. Iran could change the number of locations in Israel that it targets. Iran targeted two remote locations in Israel in the April 2024 attack.  Iran could exploit the short flight times from Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria to concentrate fire on a single target rather than against two. Shorter flight times for drones from Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria could make it easier to coordinate them with ballistic missiles fired from Iran. Tehran could alternatively attack a greater number of targets across Israel. Iran could order simultaneous attacks on U.S. forces, especially in eastern Syria. Iran only targeted Israeli targets in the April 2024 attack. Iranian-backed militia attacks attacking U.S. positions could, in some circumstances, pull American attention and resources away from identifying and intercepting projectiles bound for Israel.  Iranian leaders may calculate that their projectiles have a higher likelihood of penetrating Israeli air defenses if the United States has to focus on defending its own forces. Iran and its allies could conduct a series of drone and missile attacks over several days. The April 2024 attack consisted of only one large volley of drones and missiles fired from Iran. But Iran and its allies could fire multiple volleys over an extended period in the next attack. Stretching attacks over this period could enable Iran and the Axis of Resistance to learn and adjust their attacks as they observe how successful each volley is.

The ISW assessment notes that as additional U.S. assets are moving into the region, Iran has “a shrinking window of opportunity” to attack Israel.

BIDEN HOPES IRAN WILL STAND DOWN AMID TENSE WEEK IN MIDDLE EAST

ABOUT-FACE ON 9/11 PLOTTERS PLEA DEAL: Facing a fierce backlash from families of those killed in the 9/11 terrorist attacks and outrage from members of Congress, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin invoked his authority to negate a plea deal that would have allowed alleged mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and two of his accomplices to avoid the death penalty.

“I have determined that, in light of the significance of the decision to enter into pretrial agreements with the accused in the above-referenced case, responsibility for such a decision should rest with me as the superior convening authority under the Military Commissions Act of 2009,” Austin said in a memorandum he issued Friday. “Effective immediately, I hereby withdraw your authority in the above-referenced case to enter into a pretrial agreement and reserve such authority to myself.”

Austin’s action came after House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) requested documents to determine what role the Biden administration played in the plea deal, and Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, fired off an angry letter calling the plea deals reached by military prosecutors “unconscionable.”

“Deals like this give hope to terrorists throughout the world that America is not willing to hold the worst of the worst accountable for their wicked crimes. In short, this deal signals willingness to negotiate with terrorists who deliberately harm Americans,” Rogers wrote.

“This was a decision made by the secretary of defense,” spokesman John Kirby said on Fox in response to whether Biden asked Austin to intervene. “It was an independent decision by him, certainly within his authorities, as in the chain of command at the Defense Department.”

LLOYD AUSTIN REVOKES PLEA AGREEMENT FOR 9/11 MASTERMIND, FIRES OFFICIAL IN CHARGE OF MILITARY COMMISSIONS

'NO APOLOGIES ABOUT MAKING THIS DEAL': The Biden administration is pushing back against criticism about its prisoner swap deal with Russia that freed political prisoners in exchange for eight Russians held in five other countries.

"We will make no apologies about bringing innocent people home. Far better to have those folks home than rotting in a Russian jail for crimes they didn't commit," Kirby said during his Fox appearance. "So, no apologies about making this deal, and for all the arguments about whether it was good or bad, the previous administration did it, too — twice with Iran, with Turkey, with the Houthis."

At his Atlanta rally Saturday , former President Donald Trump insisted he would have freed the unjustly held prisoners without making any concessions.

"I'd like to congratulate Vladimir Putin for having made yet another great deal. Did you see the deal we made?" Trump said. "Now, look, we want to get people in. You know, we got 59 hostages, I never paid anything. They released some of the greatest killers anywhere in the world, some of the most evil killers they got."

"Those Trump claims are untrue. Another way to say it more directly is, once again, Donald Trump is lying to the American people," Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) said on CNN. "He traded the release of very high-ranking Taliban officials, three of them for one American and one Australian. In the case of the Houthis, he authorized Oman, the country of Oman, to release 250 Houthi prisoners for two Americans."

"I think that President Trump's struck the appropriate accord — for the families, for the hostages, absolute victory, and for Americans. We're glad that they're back home on American soil," said Rep. Brian Mast (R-FL) on Fox News. "We took back people that were wrongfully detained, and we released individuals that were very justifiably detained. It was unbalanced, and President Trump, knowing him well, he wants us to get back to making deals that are unbalanced but in the favor of the United States of America."

"It just reinforces the value of the Russian government detaining, wrongfully, Americans in Russia to use for trades like this," John Sullivan , a former U.S. ambassador to Russia, said on CBS Sunday Morning. "It was important to celebrate the return of our fellow Americans, but having been involved in these matters for as long as I have been, I know the serious side of this and the fact that Russia will continue to do this."

"My concern now is that other countries are gonna see what the Russians have been able to do. So, this is becoming not just a Russian problem; it's a global problem," Sullivan said.

"While I'm glad for the individuals released, trading innocents for criminals and spies with hostile states incentivizes our enemies to detain American citizens wrongfully," former national security adviser John Bolton said in an interview with Newsweek. "If people think we'll deal with hostages, they'll take hostages. … The deal itself is a bad idea."

"You have to think about the concern for the people who are being held today, but the president should also think about the risk to Americans tomorrow and the day after that," Bolton said.

THE HEARTBREAKING RATIONALE FOR NOT PAYING RANSOM TO FREE US HOSTAGES

THE RUNDOWN:

Washington Examiner : Biden will meet with national security team as Middle East tensions mount

Washington Examiner : US announces new military deployments to aid Israeli defense

Washington Examiner : US and allies prepare to defend Israel as Netanyahu says it's already in 'multi-front war' with Iran

Washington Examiner : Biden hopes Iran will stand down amid tense week in Middle East

Washington Examiner : Lloyd Austin revokes plea agreement for 9/11 mastermind, fires official in charge of military commissions

Washington Examiner : Trump Jan. 6 case to resume after presidential immunity ruling

Washington Examiner : Senators introduce bipartisan bill to end military draft

Washington Examiner : Kirby says Biden had no say in defense secretary’s revoking of plea deal with 9/11 mastermind

Washington Examiner : The implications of the wide-ranging Russia prisoner deal

Washington Examiner : White House ‘had been working’ to include Alexei Navalny in prison swap deal before his death

Washington Examiner : Opinion: Thank the CIA director, not Harris, for Russia prisoner swap

Washington Examiner : The Whelan family’s nightmare ends

Washington Examiner : Children of freed Russian spies learned of heritage on returning flight

Washington Examiner : Biden’s border turnaround? Illegal immigration drops to Trump-era levels

Washington Examiner : Biden DHS halts immigration program amid fraud claims after admitting 500,000 migrants

Washington Examiner : Biden DOJ secures likely delay in Texas border buoy trial

Air & Space Forces Magazine : US Deploying F-22s to Middle East as Iran Seeks Revenge on Israel

New York Times : With Smugglers and Front Companies, China Is Skirting American AI Bans

AP : North Korean leader marks the delivery of 250 nuclear-capable missile launchers to frontline units

Voice of America : Taiwan's 'Zero Day' depicts Chinese invasion, stirring debate

Nikkei Asia : China on Edge Over Prolonged US Missile Deployment in Asia

AP : Vietnam’s coast guard visits Philippines for joint drills as both face maritime tensions with China

Defense One : The US Is Helping the Philippines Modernize Its Military

Inside Defense : Senate Appropriators Advance Bill to Increase Defense Budget Above Spending Cap

Air & Space Forces Magazine : Senate Committee Adds More Fighters, Boosts USAF and USSF Budget

Military.com : Funding for 5.5 Percent Junior Enlisted Pay Raise Included in Senate's Pentagon Spending Bill

Air & Space Forces Magazine : ‘A New Reality’: Ukraine Unveils Its First F-16 Fighters

The War Zone : More Top Secret F-35 Stealth Fighter Data Given to NATO Members

Military.com : Attorney Says Air Force's Osprey Accident Report ‘Adds to the Deep Pain’ of Gold Star Families by Blaming Crew

Air & Space Forces Magazine : Gearbox Failure Caused Air Force V-22 Osprey Crash, Investigation Finds

Soldier of Fortune : In Prisoner Swap, Moscow Recoups Street Creds Within Ranks of Expeditionary Hitmen and Arms Dealers

Washington Post : Putin’s Arrest Tactics Pay Off as Russia Brings Home Its Own—Even a Killer

Breaking Defense : Air Mobility Command Tries AI to Speed Up Airlift Planning

Air & Space Forces Magazine : Air Force Relieves Group Commander for Loss of Confidence After B-1 Crash

Colorado Springs Gazette : New Air Force Academy Superintendent Promises a ‘More Demanding’ Experience for Cadets

Air & Space Forces Magazine : New DOD Suicide Report Falls Short in Key Areas

Forbes : Opinion: Retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula: The Ground in Gaza: What I Saw of Israel’s Military Operations

National Security Journal : The Russian Navy’s Decline Won’t Be Easy to Stop

AP : High jumper Yaroslava Mahuchikh wins Ukraine’s 1st individual gold of the Paris Olympic

THE CALENDAR:

MONDAY | AUGUST 5

11 a.m. 2401 M St., NW — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group coffee-conversation with Elizabeth Allen , the undersecretary of state for public diplomacy RSVP: alaysia.mckenzie@gwu.edu

11 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: "Russia's big prisoner swap, political repression, and regressive foreign policy," with Leonid Gozman , Russian opposition politician (virtual); Christian Caryl , former editor of the Washington Post Opinion Section; Evgenia Kara-Murza , advocacy director of the Free Russia Foundation and wife of Russian opposition leader Vladimir Kara-Murza; and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst , senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/russias-big-prisoner-swap

TUESDAY | AUGUST 6

TBA — Annapolis, Maryland — The 34th Australia-U.S. Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN), with Secretary of State Antony Blinken ; Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ; Australian Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong ; and Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence Richard Marles https://www.state.gov/2024-australia-u-s-ministerial-consultations/

9 a.m. Washington Convention Center — National Defense Industrial Association Electronics Division meeting, with the theme "Market Pull: The Express Bus past the Valley of Death,” with Nick Martin , director, Defense Microelectronics Activity; and Scott Bukofsky, director of capabilities, Commerce Department CHIPS National Semiconductor Technology Center Program RSVP:  Evamarie Socha, esocha@ndia.org https://www.ndiatechexpo.org/

WEDNESDAY | AUGUST 7

8 a.m. Washington Convention Center — National Defense Industrial Association Emerging Technologies for Defense Conference and Exhibition," with Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks ; Heidi Shyu , undersecretary of defense for research and engineering; Arati Prabhakar , director, Office of Science and Technology Policy; Christopher Lawman , assistant secretary of defense for sustainment; Army Lt. Gen. Mark Simerly, director, Defense Logistics Agency; Lt. Gen. Heidi Hoyle , Army deputy chief of staff for logistics; Daniel Fri , Air Force assistant deputy chief of staff; William LaPlante , Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment; Nickolas Guertin , Assistant Navy Secretary for Research, Development and Acquisition; Andrew Hunter , assistant Air Force secretary for acquisition, technology and logistics; Frank Calvelli , assistant Air Force secretary for space acquisition and integration; and Young Bang , assistant Army Secretary for Acquisition, Logistics and Technology RSVP: Evamarie Socha, esocha@ndia.org https://www.ndiatechexpo.org/

10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: "Navigating Global Challenges," with Coast Guard Vice Commandant Adm. Kevin Lunday https://www.brookings.edu/events/navigating-global-challenges

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW— Center for Strategic and International Studies International Security Program and U.S. Naval Institute in-person and virtual Maritime Security Dialogue: “Preserving the Free Flow of Commerce in the Red Sea and Beyond: An Update from 5th Fleet Commander,” with Vice Adm. George Wikoff , commander, U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, U.S. 5th Fleet and Combined Maritime Forces, retired Rear Adm. Raymond Spicer , CEO and publisher, U.S. Naval Institute; and Seth Jones , CSIS senior vice president https://www.csis.org/events/preserving-free-flow-commerce-red-sea

10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: "The Future of the U.S.-Australia Alliance," with Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Richard Marles https://www.csis.org/events/conversation-australian-deputy-prime-minister

11 a.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual forum: "Mapping Iranian External Operations Worldwide," with Hans-Georg Engelke , state secretary of the German Ministry of the Interior and Community; Magnus Ranstorp , strategic adviser at the Swedish Defense University's Center for Societal Security; Norman Roule , nonresident senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program; and Matthew Levitt , director of the WINEP Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence https://washingtoninstitute-org.zoom.us/webinar/register

12 p.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: "The Middle East on the Cusp of a Regional War," with Amos Harel , Haaretz military correspondent https://carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/08/the-middle-east-on-the-cusp

THURSDAY | AUGUST 8

8 a.m. Washington Convention Center — National Defense Industrial Association Emerging Technologies for Defense Conference and Exhibition," with David Honey , deputy undersecretary of defense for research and engineering;  Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli , commander of U.S. European Command and Supreme Allied Commander Europe; Undersecretary of the Army Gabe Camarillo ; and former Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work deliver remarks on "Service Perspectives" https://www.ndiatechexpo.org/

10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: "Assad's Return: Regional Changes, and Future Outlook," with Sawsan Abou Zainedin , CEO of Madaniya; Maria Fantappie, head of the IAI Mediterranean, Middle East and Africa Program; Abdullah Baabood , CEIP nonresident senior scholar; Armenak Tokmajyan , CEIP nonresident scholar; and Sinan Ulgen , CEIP senior fellow https://carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/08/assads-return

1 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: "Over the Brink: Escalation Management in a Protracted U.S.-PRC (People's Republic of China) Conflict," with Austin Long , deputy director for strategic stability for the Joint Staff; Justin Anderson , senior policy fellow at the National Defense University's Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction; Andrew Metrick , fellow at the CNAS Defense Program; and Stacie Pettyjohn , senior fellow and director of the CNAS Defense Program https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-over-the-brink

3:30 p.m. — Wilson Center Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy, Wilson Center Indo-Pacific Program and Wilson Center's History and Public Policy Program virtual discussion: "One Year Later: The Path Forward for U.S.-ROK-Japan Trilateral Relations," with Dayna Barnes , associate professor at the National Defense University; Sung-Yoon Lee , fellow and professor of Korean studies and assistant professor at Tufts University's Fletcher School; Hayoun Ryou-Ellison , assistant professor of the National Defense University; and Kayla Irta , senior associate at the Hyundai-Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/one-year-later-path-forward

FRIDAY | AUGUST 9

8 a.m. Washington Convention Center — National Defense Industrial Association Emerging Technologies for Defense Conference and Exhibition," with Heidi Shyu , undersecretary of defense for research and engineering; Maryna Bezrukova , director, Defense Procurement Agency; and Joint Chiefs of Staff Vice Chairman Adm. Christopher Grady https://www.ndiatechexpo.org/