Players retire, leaguemates bail but one thing never goes away … ADP.
Season after season, we use average draft position data (ADP) as one of our primary reference points for when to draft players based on their perceived value. But how can we use ADP to our advantage in 2024?
Remember that a player's ADP is a suggestion — not a directive. ADP represents the average draft position of players across a wide range of fantasy drafts at a given time. ADP is often thought of as one of the most critical parts of your fantasy draft. So, as we prepare for the fantasy season, let’s talk about what to keep in mind when it comes to ADP.
Theme for 2024: Inflated receiver ADPs
Gone are the years of heavy running backs in the first round! There are currently seven receivers being drafted in Round 1 of 12-team leagues and the madness doesn’t stop there. Around 30 receivers are being drafted in the first five rounds. Rookies like Marvin Harrison Jr. (overall ADP 18.7) and Malik Nabers (Overall ADP 70.4) boast aggressive ADPs, and we haven’t even hit the peak of draft season hype.
But there are several things we should keep in mind with receivers ADP specifically. The Round 1 receivers are there for a reason. They’re reliable, consistent and elite components of their respective offenses that will not disappear. Draft them with confidence.
Round 2 is where things start to get a little tricky. We’ve got several young players like MHJ and Drake London (actually going in Round 3) who we are potentially drafting at their ceiling along with veterans like Davante Adams and Mike Evans in potentially risky offenses. Rounds 3 and 4 feature receivers in crowded offenses like Deebo Samuel, Jaylen Waddle, Nico Collins and DJ Moore.
Be wary of reaching on already inflated ADPs. Don’t be afraid to veer from the crowd and draft a higher-tier player from another position. While it might feel critical to grab multiple receivers early on, don’t force the issue. There are fine mid-round options later you can pair as a solid WR2 with one of the elite Round 1 receivers and still build a strong roster.
The Fallout: RB Dead Zone isn’t quite dead
With receiver ADPs pushed up, something has to be pushed down, and the result is depth at other positions. The RB Dead zone is typically seen as Rounds 3 through 6. Round 3 features a high-upside player like De’Von Achane. Round 4 features James Cook. But, Round 6 in particular offers true value RB1s in Rhamondre Stevenson, Zamir White and Raheem Mostert.
The Patriots will likely be very run-heavy this season and the recently-paid Stevenson should be a focal point of their offense. Zamir White has a chance to be this year’s Rachaad White. Mostert is coming off an RB1 season.
Don’t be afraid to dip your toes into the dead zone. There are certainly some red-flag players, so don’t attack it with reckless abandon. Focus on upside and value. Selecting the right dead-zone running back could be a league-winning move.
Added Bonus: Quarterback depth
With the rise of young players like Anthony Richardson, C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love, quarterback is extremely deep this season. Last year's overall QB3 — Dak Prescott — is being drafted as QB9. Players like Justin Herbert (who is expected to be ready for Week 1 after a foot injury) and Trevor Lawrence are being drafted outside the top 15 at the position. Add to that exciting incoming rookies in Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams, advantageous schedules for players like Jared Goff and injury discounts for players like Kirk Cousins and Deshaun Watson. You can target the player of your choice at any point during the draft.
That type of freedom allows you the flexibility to build your lineup as you set fit.
Keep in mind, however, that quarterback depth doesn’t mean you have to abandon early-round quarterbacks. This is not a late-round quarterback mandate. The top quarterbacks are still excellent values, and I’ve personally drafted both Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts in redraft teams this offseason. The beauty of this season, however, is not being beholden to drafting one within a certain range.
A New Look: Tight end tiers
In prior seasons, Travis Kelce was the standard, often drafted in the first round and generally separated from his peers. In 2024, tight end ADP will look vastly different. Sam LaPorta is the consensus top-ranked tight end with either he or Kelce the first tight end off the board in late Round 2/early Round 3 — the two have nearly an identical ADP. Then, there's a bit of a gap in ADP to the next few guys.
The way I’m approaching tight end this season is by adhering to tiers. While I use tiers throughout all positions, I’ll be very strict with tiers for tight ends in 2024. There’s a clear and defined Tier 1 with LaPorta, Kelce, Trey McBride and Mark Andrews. These players are unquestioned top-two looks in their respective offenses with proven TE1 upside and no competition from another tight end on their team. I’d feel extremely comfortable with any tight end in Tier 1 and have no problem, say, missing out on LaPorta to snag Andrews because they offer a similar range of outcomes.
Tier 2 features Dalton Kincaid, George Kittle, Kyle Pitts and Evan Engram. Again, these guys have similar ranges of outcomes — and similar hurdles to clear.
Tier 3 is extremely big, featuring players with more defined roles but limited upside, like Dallas Goedert and Dalton Schultz, and players who face new offenses or unknown factors, like Pat Freiermuth and Brock Bowers.
Zeroing in on a tier and planning accordingly will be the key to nailing your tight end picks in 2024.
Don’t forget: Fantasy is more fun when you draft YOUR guys
Fantasy football is just flat-out more fun when we roster the players we truly believe in. Are you a Drake London truther, like me? Get your man! Get him in the first round? Nah, don’t go wild. Instead, draft him with confidence in the second round and don’t be worried that you’re “reaching” or “drafting a player at his ceiling” because of ADP.
Assemble a team that will win your league AND have you doing backflips every Sunday.
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