ECR stands for "Expert Consensus Ranking," which means the average rankings of the fantasy football industry and is typically similar to ADP (which differs from site-to-site). This ongoing positional serieswillhighlight some big differences between ECR and my own ranks.
Go here for quarterbacks.
Running Backs I like more than consensus
Breece Hall, New York Jets (ECR = RB3 vs My Rank = RB2)
Hall averaged the third-most 0.5 PPR fantasy points (17.3) from Week 5 on last season once he started seeing full snaps while returning from ACL surgery. Only Christian McCaffrey totaled more fantasy points over that span despite Hall playing for a New York offense that managed the second-fewest yards per play (4.3). Jets quarterbacks were truly disastrous without Aaron Rodgers, as New York averaged just 15.8 points per game (fourth-fewest) while providing Hall with the 43rd-most red-zone rushes; the Jets somehow had just one carry inside the five-yard line and none at the goal line last season. Hall had just 3.3 expected rushing touchdowns — yet remained a fantasy star.
He's a special back who somehow leads all RBs in YPC after contact and yards per route run since entering the league. Hall has a better YPRR rate than CMC despite playing in a bottom-three situation and recovering from major knee surgery.
Running backs historically show real improvement in Year 2 post-ACL surgery, and Hall already led all RBs in receptions last season. Hall feels back to his old self, and a returning Rodgers will be a major upgrade at quarterback. The Jets have a dominant defense and overhauled their poor offensive line early in the draft and through free agency. Hall averaged the most fantasy points when his team was leading and the second-most weighted opportunities as a favorite last season, and the Jets are favored in 14 of 17 games entering 2024.
Given the lack of Tier 1 RBs, Hall is the No. 2 player on my board in 0.5 PPR leagues, but his ECR is seventh. I'm closer to moving Hall to RB1 than RB3.
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens (ECR = RB8 vs My Rank = RB6)
Henry's declining numbers over the last two seasons (when he still scored 25 TDs) were more of a product of a bad Titans offense than Henry's performance; he remained explosive and ranked top-three in YPC after contact against stacked boxes in 2023. He's 30 years old now, but Henry's touches were limited early in his career, and he's also simply built different. Henry's snap share was reduced to 53% last season, yet he still led the league in carries for the fourth time in five years on an offense that got a lowly 4.9 yards per play.
It's hard to understate just how big of an upgrade Henry saw when leaving Tennessee for Baltimore this offseason. Henry has run into 120-plus more eight-man boxes than any other RB over the last three seasons, while Lamar Jackson helped a depleted Ravens RB group score the fourth-most fantasy points last year. Gus Edwards benefited from a ton of short-yardage touchdowns, and Henry's style appears to be a great fit for Baltimore's offense; his career YPC has jumped more than a full yard out of shotgun and pistol (5.1 YPC).
Henry has averaged almost twice as many 0.5 PPR fantasy points during wins throughout his career, and no team led more than the Ravens last season. Henry has averaged 98.4 rushing yards (5.1 YPC) with 65 touchdowns over 59 wins compared to 49.1 rushing yards (4.0) and just 15 scores in 44 losses during his career. Baltimore is projected to win 11-plus games in 2024. The Ravens would love to give Henry 300 carries on an offense that averaged 28.4 points per game last year, and The Kingremains motivated.
Henry’s ADP is no longer a gift like earlier this summer, but he remains undervalued at draft tables.
De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins (ECR = RB11 vs My Rank = RB7)
Achane averaged the fourth-most 0.5 PPR fantasy points (16.5) last season despite playing five snaps or fewer in two games and never eclipsing 18 carries (or 38 snaps). He had the highest YPC (7.8) and rushing DVOA of any running back in NFL history. Achane's healthy full season's pace was 1,541 yards from scrimmage and 17 touchdowns despite sharing the backfield with an RB who led the NFL in rushing TDs.
Achane averaged 115 yards from scrimmage when playing 40% of the snaps. He led the league in yards after contact per touch among manyotherrushing categories. Achane outperformed Mostert and had the same number of first-read targets as Rachaad White over just nine healthy games as a rookie, so he has legit receiving upside as well.
Even with a healthy Raheem Mostert, Achane averaged more opportunities per game (15.1) than Jahmyr Gibbs (14.0) did with David Montgomery. Mike McDaniel expects a bulked-up Achane to have a bigger role in Year 2, and the 32-year-old Mostert has an extensive injury history. Miami running backs racked up 50+ more 0.5 PPR points last season than any RB group since 2020, and a healthy Achane could explode in an expanded role.
The argument against Achane comes mainly down to health, as he costs a top-30 pick after playing just nine full games while dealing with multiple injuries as a rookie. He's 5-9 and 188 pounds, so asking for 250+ touches might be a stretch.
Achane is undoubtedly a riskier fantasy pick whose historic efficiency is sure to regress, but he also possesses league-winning upside given his individual ability and the likelihood of Mostert going down. Even if Achane misses games, few players are more likely to help win your week when healthy.
Achane is a steal in Round 3.
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (ECR = RB21 vs My Rank = RB13)
It's typically best not to target 29-year-old running backs with a history of missing games, but Conner's ranked too low thanks to injury concerns and Trey Benson. Conner scored the most RB fantasy points from Week 13 on last season and finished third in rush yards over expectation, behind only Christian McCaffrey and Achane. Conner is an underrated three-down back who quietly led all RBs in 20+ yard rushes last season.
The Cardinals were a top-10 offense post Week 10 after Kyler Murray's return last season, when Arizona's rushing attack led the NFL in YPC (5.3) and EPA per attempt. Murray should improve during his second year back from surgery, and the Cardinals added weapon Marvin Harrison Jr. early in the draft. Trey McBride looks like a star at tight end, and Arizona snapped the ball with the sixth-most seconds left on the play clock last season (despite shaky QB play before Murray returned).
Benson could eventually emerge as nice insurance for Conner's fantasy managers, but the third-rounder is currently in a fight for Arizona's RB2 job, had a low athleticism score and is unlikely to steal many touches. Conner is likely to miss a few games once again this season, but it can't be emphasized enough that ALL running backs carry significant injury risk. And Conner has a real chance at being a top-five fantasy back when healthy.
You don’t even have to draft Conner where I have him ranked, since he’s the clear best target in the “RB dead zone.”
Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans (ECR = RB32 vs My Rank = RB25)
Spears was the only RB to force 25+ tackles on fewer than 100 carries last season, and he ranked third among backs in first-read targets as a rookie. Spears recorded the fourth-most scrimmage yards (1,837) his final year in college, where he especially thrived out of shotgun; Brian Callahan's Bengals ranked third in shotgun rate last season.
Meanwhile, his competition for touches has gone from Derrick Henry to Tony Pollard. Pollard has admitted he didn't feel totally healthy coming off TightRope surgery until the middle of last season, and there's no question he improved down the stretch. Still, his numbers remained disappointing over the second half, and Pollard somehow finished as just the RB22 (11.5 fpg) despite seeing the second-most red-zone touches (72) in the league behind a strong offensive line. Spears had more targets and 24% more receiving yards while running 75 fewer routes than Pollard last year.
Spears may not have a long NFL career, but he's a much better bet than Pollard in 2024. Their ADPs should be flipped.
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