3 big takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries: An incumbent loss, Trump’s endorsement power and more

Another incumbent bit the dust on Tuesday.

Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) became the fourth member of Congress — and the second member of the progressive Squad — to lose a primary election this year. Her race drew millions of dollars in spending, largely driven by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which has targeted candidates it doesn’t deem as sufficiently pro-Israel.

Bush, like the other two incumbents who have fallen to challengers this cycle, had made key missteps that left them in political peril before the onslaught of outside spending arrived.

Elsewhere on Tuesday, other vulnerable incumbents managed to hang on. And the latest slate of battleground races is now set.

Here are some takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries:

Money matters, but Bush’s vulnerabilities opened the door

Bush was already a vulnerable incumbent even before AIPAC’s super PAC started spending against her. Personal scandal involving a federal investigation into her campaign spending on security services and her alienation of some labor allies with her vote against the infrastructure package had weakened her position.

But the deluge of outside spending and St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell’s strong candidacy made the race even more competitive. Although the Israel-Hamas war had barely factored into their campaign messaging, Bush’s strident criticism of the Israeli government prompted the United Democracy Project to spend over $8 million against her, helping to make this primary the second-costliest in House history.

Rep. Jamaal Bowman ’s loss in June, where AIPAC and other pro-Israel groups also heavily spent against him, only further energized those seeking to unseat Bush. Bell — like Bowman’s opponent, George Latimer — accused the incumbent of neglecting her constituent duties and alienating key allies. Bush had attempted to cast the outside spending as “disinformation” and accused Bell of opportunism for dropping down from a planned Senate bid to challenge her.

And another Democratic incumbent had an unexpectedly close race , but under entirely different circumstances. Democratic Rep. Shri Thanedar , an Indian-American lawmaker representing a predominantly Black district based in Detroit, won a closer-than-expected contest with Detroit City Council member Mary Waters, who is Black. That’s a shock for Thanedar; a more serious primary challenger ultimately didn’t qualify for the ballot, and he dramatically outspent Waters.

Trump’s participation-trophy endorsement tactic

The power of former President Donald Trump’s endorsement has faltered in recent races , failing to take candidates over the finish line. And now, he’s hedging his bets.

Trump has issued endorsements to multiple candidates in a handful of primaries in the last couple of weeks. That includes in the contentious GOP primary for Missouri governor on Tuesday, where he threw his backing behind all three of the leading candidates: Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft and state Sen. Bill Eigel. Kehoe won.

He pulled a similar gambit in the primary for Missouri state attorney general, where he backed both incumbent Andrew Bailey and challenger Will Scharf. Bailey won.

In Washington’s 4th District, Trump sought to enact revenge on Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse , one of the last two Republicans who voted to impeach Trump left in the House. Trump endorsed former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler earlier this cycle, but tacked on an eleventh-hour endorsement for Tiffany Smiley, the party’s unsuccessful 2022 Senate candidate. Sessler and Newhouse were on track as of early Wednesday morning to advance to the general election, but the race remains uncalled.

It’s a move that Trump pulled for the first time this cycle last week, when he issued a second endorsement in an Arizona House primary after he already endorsed one candidate last year. The candidate who had the endorsement longer ended up winning. Trump spreading his endorsement around raises some questions about its strength in a primary. If he is backing all the leading candidates — or hedging his bets late in the process — is he still influencing primary voters?

Trump also notched some other endorsement wins on Tuesday in races where he only backed one contender, including former state Sen. Bob Onder in Missouri’s 3rd District, and former state Attorney General Derek Schmidt in Kansas’ 2nd District. Both are open, safe red seats.

No big surprises in battleground matchups

Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers will face off for an open Senate seat in Michigan after primaries that were largely preordained. Slotkin’s candidacy scared off most major competition, and Rogers saw three of his Republican opponents drop out before primary day.

The lineups for competitive House races were also set. National Republicans weren’t thrilled about Paul Junge’s comeback bid in central Michigan — especially when Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee decided to retire. But they couldn’t stop him. Some preferred Mary Draves, a former Dow Chemical exec, but Junge’s name ID and stronger fundraising pushed him over the top. He’ll face Democrats’ preferred candidate, Kristen McDonald Rivet.

It was a similar story in Washington’s 3rd District, where some Republicans hoped the party could provide voters with a palatable alternative to 2022 candidate Joe Kent, whose ties to far-right groups doomed his campaign even in a district Trump won two years earlier. But it will be a rematch between Kent and freshman Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez .

Democrats also had a retread candidate in a Lower Peninsula Michigan district, where Carl Marlinga won the primary. He’ll again face GOP Rep. John James . He waged a surprisingly strong run against him in 2022 in a race that drew comparatively little outside spending, but some Democrats were eager for a fresh face in 2024.

In Slotkin’s open seat, Republican Tom Barrett and Democrat Curtis Hertel Jr. were uncontested in their respective primaries. In Michigan’s 3rd District, attorney Paul Hudson will take on first-term Democratic Rep. Hillary Scholten , where Joe Biden won by around 9 points in 2020. And Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier will be up against Republican Carmen Goers in Washington’s 8th District, another battleground.

In Kansas’ 3rd District, oncologist Prasanth Reddy won a closer-than-expected primary for the right to take on Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids . Reddy is the preferred candidate of national Republicans, but the suburban Kansas City district increasingly favors Democrats.