Australia's central bank won't hesitate to raise rates if needed, governor says

SYDNEY (Reuters) -Australia's central bank will not hesitate to raise interest rates if needed to control inflation, its chief said on Thursday, reinforcing its hawkish messaging as the pace of underlying inflation remained high.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock, in a speech in her home town of Armidale, New South Wales, reiterated that the board was vigilant to the upside risk of inflation, days after the bank decided to hold rates steady.

"I know this (raising rates) is not what people want to hear. But the alternative of persistently high inflation is worse. It hurts everyone," Bullock said.

The central bank has held its policy steady since November, judging the current cash rate of 4.35% - up from the 0.1% during the pandemic - to be restrictive enough to bring inflation down to the bank's 2%-3% target band while preserving employment.

However, core inflation, which ran at 3.9% last quarter, is only projected to slow towards the end of 2025.

Bullock, who all but ruled out a near-term rate cut on Tuesday, said the central bank does not see rates coming down quickly given the inflation risk, still-strong employment data and anecdotes from businesses.

"We just cannot see what it is at the moment that is going to allow us to lower interest rates. Remember that we didn't go as far as everyone else.. So we need to be a little bit careful," she said.

If the economy does start to slow down more quickly than previously thought, the central bank won't hesitate to cut rates, she added.

Despite the hawkish comments from Bullock, markets are still wagering a 46% chance that the bank could begin lowering rates in November. A first easing in December is almost fully priced in.

Australian bank Westpac, however, now says it expects the first rate cut to happen in February, a delay from its previous call for a November rate cut.

"The RBA’s conviction levels around these forecasts are evidently not high enough to consider moving in the short term," said Luci Ellis, chief economist at Westpac.

(Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Christopher Cushing and Miral Fahmy)