More tropical trouble may be brewing for the US in Atlantic

AccuWeather meteorologists are watching a ripple in the tropical Atlantic for possible development and a turn toward the United States next week.

On the heels of Debby, confidence is growing that a new feature currently over the south-central Atlantic may become the next tropical storm or hurricane in the coming days, and it may have eyes for the East Coast of the United States, AccuWeather meteorologists advise.

The area being watched is one of many dozens of tropical waves of low pressure that travel from the Indian Ocean across Africa then across the Atlantic each year. Some of these waves even travel across Central America and into the Pacific.

"The tropical feature in question pushed off the coast of Africa at midweek and was located over the south-central tropical Atlantic on Friday," AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyssa Glenny said. "Into Sunday, this system is unlikely to organize into a tropical depression, but as it approaches the Leeward Islands early next week, it could be a vastly different story."

"There is not really much wind shear throughout the path of the tropical wave into early next week, and dry air seems to be fading fast," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

Steering breezes will guide the feature on a more northwesterly path than predecessors so far this season, especially later in the life cycle.

"There is a likelihood if this tropical feature survives to the zone near and just north of the Caribbean next week, it will go on to become a tropical storm, and from there, it could be drawn in close enough to the East Coast of the U.S. to be a direct concern," DaSilva said.

The next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Ernesto.

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Assuming that the system survives and organizes, that risk to the U.S. could ramp up toward past the middle of the month or, more specifically, next weekend.

The westward extension of the Bermuda/Azores high pressure area over the middle of the Atlantic is likely to help determine the tropical feature's future path next week.

More of a short-term risk will be for the Leeward Islands early next week, then Puerto Rico and the Bahamas later next week. These areas should, at the very least, expect an uptick in drenching downpours and gusty thunderstorms with locally rough seas.

A strengthening tropical storm or hurricane taking a more northwest path toward the U.S. could bring damaging and dangerous conditions to part of the Atlantic coast next weekend.

Should the system develop into a hurricane but take a more northerly track and remain to the east of the U.S. Atlantic coast, it would still bring a period of rough seas, building surf and strong rip currents. It may also be of concern for Bermuda, should it track farther to the east.

The feature doesn't represent a threat to the Gulf Coast at this point, but if it were to remain a weak feature longer, it might have a better chance of making a more westward trip.

When and where the feature develops into a tropical storm, a more definitive track will be determined.

AccuWeather meteorologists insist that a super-charged Atlantic hurricane season will unfold this year, with a large number of tropical storms and hurricanes. Some storms are likely to undergo rapid intensification due largely to the ongoing higher-than-historical average water temperatures.

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