Examining Aaron Judge’s path to breaking Barry Bonds’ home run record

After home run No. 300 , Juan Soto tried to envision the even greater — and more historic — milestone that might await Aaron Judge.

“I hope he breaks the home-run record,” Soto said Wednesday in referencing Barry Bonds’ 762 career home runs. “Why not? I think he’s the guy who can literally break the record. He’s been showing it off every time. I hope he got the health to do it. I’m going to enjoy it as much as I can, too.”

If Soto can try to pin down where Judge, a unique superstar in just about every way — including his relatively late-in-baseball-life breakout — eventually might land, why can’t we?

To start with: It is very, very unlikely that Judge threatens the all-time marks of Bonds and Henry Aaron (755 career homers) in part because Bonds debuted at 21, Aaron at 20 and Judge at 24, not breaking through until his age-25 season.

The 32-year-old Judge likely will finish his year in the 315-homer neighborhood; Bonds already had smacked 374 and Aaron 442 before they reached 33.

Judge was fastest to 300 by games played (955) and at-bats (3,431) , both by significant margins, but his long journey to the majors — spending three years at Fresno State before three seasons in the minors — would hurt him if he wants to hunt down the all-time greats.

Judge’s 300 are tied with Ryan Howard for the 62nd most ever before turning 33.

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The all-time under-33 leaders: Alex Rodriguez (who debuted at 18) with 553; Jimmie Fox (17) with 500; Albert Pujols (21) with 475; Ken Griffey Jr. (19) with 468 and Mickey Mantle (19) with 454.

Judge, who still has about six weeks this season to stalk 60 again, has averaged about 45 home runs per year since 2021.

If that same pace continued into his late 30s and early 40s — let’s call it the Tom Brady career arc, in which his growing smarts seem to compensate for dips in athleticism — a 43-year-old Judge would pass Bonds’ and Aaron’s marks in 11 years, which would be four years after his current, nine-year contract with the Yankees expires.

What if Judge’s arc more resembles Bonds’?

Beginning in 2000 — a year in which he turned 36 — a slugger whose season-high in home runs had been 46 (achieved seven years prior) exploded and averaged about 52 for the ensuing five seasons.

Bonds had performance-enhancing help that lifted his game into his late 30s and early 40s.

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Judge, who has continued to evolve as a hitter as he has aged, has improved with more experience.

Maybe the kind of never-seen-before dominance he has unlocked this season continues in a burst of spectacular seasons: A solid finish over the next six weeks followed by a 58-homer-per-year pace would take him past Bonds in eight years.

Neither of the above trajectories can be considered even close to likely, but they are fun to think about — particularly in an era in sports in which LeBron James can dominate at 39 and Aaron Rodgers is giving the Jets hope at 40 .

The Yankees know what they are witnessing is historic and, at least at this absurd level, could be fleeting.

“What Aaron’s doing,” manager Aaron Boone said after Wednesday’s win in Chicago over the White Sox, “a select few in the history of the game [have enjoyed] the kind of season he’s having.”

All-time-record speculation might be ridiculous, but so is the kind of campaign and career Judge is having.

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A player who struck out 42 times in his first 27 major league games has continued to identify holes in his game and patch them.

He has figured out a swing that works and a training routine that has largely kept him on the field after too many injuries in his early years.

There are no holes remaining for a solid center fielder who is hitting .333 with a .467 on-base percentage, 43 home runs and 110 RBIs and would be on his way to a Triple Crown if not for Bobby Witt Jr.’s .349 average.

If the largest obstacle toward history for No. 99 is the time he already has missed, the second-most significant probably would be the time he could miss.

He sat for nearly two months last season with the torn ligament in his toe .

He missed more than 100 games combined in 2018-19, first with a fractured wrist and then an oblique strain.

Among the miracles he would require for all-time history would be uncommon good health in the later stages of his career.

However his season and career finishes, the Yankees’ captain has begun to place himself in conversations with legends.

“Hopefully we keep doing some things to stay in the likeness of them,” Judge said.

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