Politicians in the German states of Thuringia and Saxony began wrangling over potential coalitions on Monday after state elections saw big gains for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), further complicating the already fractured state parliaments.
It appears likely that the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU), who eked out a narrow victory on Sunday in Saxony and finished second to the AfD in Thuringia, will end up leading coalitions in both states.
AfD leaders tried to claim a mandate to govern on Monday, pointing to their clear victory in Thuringia and a close second-place finish in Saxony, according to preliminary results from state election authorities. It's not yet clear when final official results will be published.
Yet despite the AfD's show of strength, the insurgent far right appeared destined to be frozen out of government after every other party rejected the AfD as too extremist and again ruled out any possible deal with them.
AfD wins big in Thuringia
The AfD's breakthrough victory in Thuringia behind its firebrand state leader Björn Höcke marked the first time since the defeat of the Nazis in World War II that a far-right party has won a statewide election in the country.
Höcke, who's become well-known in Germany for his fiery extremist rhetoric and use of banned Nazi slogans, lost his own constituency election to a CDU rival and will only take a seat in Thuringia's parliament through the party list.
Höcke's bid to host coalition talks was pre-emptively rejected by every other party. Sahra Wagenknecht, the founder and namesake of the upstart Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), denounced Höcke's "völkisch," or ethno-nationalist, world view as too fringe and extremist to consider.
That leaves the CDU's top candidate in Thuringia, Mario Voigt, as the man most likely to lead the next coalition government in the state. The CDU finished second in the election with 23.6% of the vote.
Calculations will be tricky, however - especially since CDU party policy has long ruled out any cooperation with the hard-left Die Linke ("The Left"), which remains a strong force in the state. The AfD and Die Linke would take 44 of the 88 seats in Thuringia's parliament, based on preliminary results.
Voigt warned that talks could be drawn out as he arrived as CDU national headquarters in Berlin on Monday.
"You don't decide something like this overnight," Voigt said. "But it is also clear that the CDU has made gains and now has the task of conducting the talks, and that is what we will now do."
A possible CDU coalition with the BSW appears necessary, but would also be difficult. The CDU, the BSW and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) would together account for 44 seats, a single seat shy of the necessary majority.
Wagenknecht, the BSW's leader, has demanded clear signs of opposition to Germany's military aid for Ukraine and opposition to stationing US missiles in Germany as a condition for coalition talks.
Voigt on Monday morning retorted that "world politics are not decided in Thuringia."
Wagenknecht's background as a member of the former communist East Germany's SED ruling party and a long-time icon of the German extreme left also make her an uncomfortable ally for many in the traditionalist CDU.
She belonged to Die Linke before quitting the party after repeated conflicts over her anti-immigration views and right-wing stances on some social issues.
Thuringia's current state premier, Bodo Ramelow of Die Linke, said on Sunday night that Voigt has the responsibility of forming the next coalition - and vowed to do everything he could to support a pro-democracy government that excludes the AfD.
Ramelow has been leading a minority left-wing government with the tacit support of the opposition CDU in state parliament.
Saxony leader says deal with BSW 'possible'
Saxony's incumbent CDU state premier, Michael Kretschmer, has expressed confidence that he'll remain in office at the head of a new coalition, and said on Monday that the CDU could find common ground with the BSW.
But Kretschmer warned that months of difficult negotiations may lie ahead. His current coalition with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens will not hold a majority in the next parliament.
"It won't be easy, it will take time, but it is possible," Kretschmer said about an alliance with the BSW in an interview with Deutschlandfunk radio.
He said his CDU would follow its "values" but set "party ideologies" aside to focus on the "content" of any deal. Like Voigt, Kretschmer has also stressed that foreign policy matters won't be decided at the regional level in Germany.
Election officials in Saxony on Monday corrected an error in the way preliminary results were calculated, giving the AfD one seat fewer than previously projected.
According to the corrected result, the CDU has 41 seats and the AfD 40. The BSW has 15 seats, the SPD 10 and the Greens 7. Die Linke has 6 seats and the small Free Voters party 1 seat. There are a total of 120 seats in the Saxon state parliament.
That would leave the AfD just shy of holding a so-called blocking minority which could veto certain types of legislation or judicial appointments that require a two-thirds vote.
In Thuringia, however, the AfD will hold enough seats to exercise that kind of veto power, adding a further challenge for whatever multi-party coalition emerges from the talks.
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