Caleb Williams and How Roster Talent Impacts Rookie QB Production

There is a new hope in Chicago, and his name is Caleb Williams. The rookie passer has taken the city by storm before taking a regular-season snap . It feels like yesterday I was doing this same analysis on Justin Fields . But with a new quarterback comes a new set of numbers to consider. The goal here is to look at how closely correlated rookie QB production is to the offensive talent around him. We look at overall talent levels and combinations of position groups, weighed against historical rookie QB stats.

This data is months, or maybe years in the making. After reviewing last year's analysis, I decided to make a few changes from last year's methodology. Most notably, I added some adjusting factors for players with major breakouts or fall-offs during the season under review. Ultimately, the product is similar and hopefully improved.

First, we will look at how the Bears' offensive roster compares to other rookie quarterbacks selected in the first round in previous years. Then, we will review some correlations between rookie quarterback stats and the offensive roster talent around those quarterbacks.

Offensive Support for Rookie Quarterbacks

To determine “talent” at each position, I used five factors from the two seasons before the year in question (i.e. for the 2024 Bears roster, all figures are from 2023 and 2022):

• Player Age: Older players tend to be less reliable throughout the season.
• Net Positive Play %: The percentage of a player’s snaps where they achieved positive plays, netted against their percentage of snaps resulting in negative plays. Positive plays are first downs, explosive runs, contested catches, and touchdowns. Negative plays are pressures or sacks allowed, penalties, drops, fumbles, or targeted interceptions. While this is not perfect, its simplicity generates solid logical rankings that we can blend with other factors to find the middle.
• PFF Grades
• Contract Annual Average Value as a percentage of that year's salary cap.
• Snap Percentage: Percent of any NFL team's snaps that the player has played in the last two seasons.
• All-Pro, Pro Bowl, and Awards: AP All-Pro, MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, and Rookie of the Year voting, as well as Pro Bowl nods.
• Draft Capital used on each player.

The final grade is a percentage above or below average for the position. For example, DJ Moore is the Bears WR1, coming in at 10.8% better than the average WR1 in the dataset. Therefore, DJ Moore is considered to be an above-average WR1. The dataset is limited to the QBs and rosters detailed in the graphic.

Overall, the Bears offense ranks near the top in overall talent. Their score is firmly in the "elite" tier, with impressive pass-catching talent and depth. The fact that there are three rookies at the top of the list can be explained by projection versus reality. For all other QBs analyzed, we know who got hurt and who played the majority of snaps at each position. If Teven Jenkins gets injured and misses significant time, that will impact who the "starter" at left guard will be and the overall score for the 2024 Bears.

It is also notable that while DJ Moore is considered a high-end WR1, Keenan Allen is considered an elite WR2, and Rome Odunze is an excellent WR3. The wide receiver talent is overwhelmingly strong here before taking the tight end position into consideration.

Correlating Offensive Talent to Rookie QB Success

Now that we have established how the rankings work, I want to look at how correlated the amount of “talent” around rookie QBs might be to their performance. In this chart, the x-axis represents offensive supporting cast talent, while the y-axis represents each quarterback's EPA/Play in their rookie season.

We see a loose correlation between overall offensive talent and rookie QB EPA per Play. Additionally, I see a floor for rookie passers with above-average supporting casts. Six of seven QBs with an above-average supporting cast posted positive EPA/Play as a rookie. The exception was Daniel Jones, who fell slightly below the mark (-0.021 EPA/Play). Remember, Caleb Williams and the Bears ranked at the high end of this category, so all good, so far.

Correlating WR and TE Talent to Rookie QB Success

In this chart, the x-axis represents the combined WR and TE talent, while the y-axis represents each quarterback's EPA/Play in their rookie season. We see a REAL correlation between pass-catching talent and rookie QB EPA per Play. The results are clear to me. Get your rookie QB pass-catching talent . Ryan Poles followed suit this offseason, almost as if he has been reading these articles for years. I love to see it.

Correlating OL Talent to Rookie QB Success

Next, we look at offensive line talent around each rookie QB. Anyone who has followed the results of these articles in the past already knows the conclusion here. Offensive line talent is not nearly as correlated to quarterback success as skill position talent. Interestingly, few rookie QBs in the dataset showed success with an above-average offensive line. However, few of the rosters reviewed had a good offensive line and good pass catchers. Typically, teams have one or the other, but not both.

The Bears rank in the middle of the pack for offensive line talent, which appears to be just fine based on the historical norms. However, this is a position that can be derailed quickly by injuries. I like the Bears' offensive line depth this season and applaud Ryan Poles for building that up. But it does not guarantee that the pass protection doesn't fall apart. Good pass protection is a fragile thing — one the Bears haven't experienced consistently in quite some time.

Final Thoughts

My read on this is that young passers can overcome a poor offensive line with good pass-catching weapons who separate quickly, win contested opportunities, and make life easy for the passer.

A good offensive line doesn't necessarily make for a more effective passing offense. Pass protection does not make your pass catchers better at getting open or winning jump balls. It can buy more time for the passer to scan the field, but route runners still need to win against man coverage. If you don't have players who can beat man coverage against good cornerbacks, the passing offense will have limitations.

A strong offensive line CAN make for a more effective run game, bleeding into the threat of play-action and creating more offensive space. Carson Wentz, Mitchell Trubisky, and Mac Jones benefited from a strong rush threat opening up the aerial attack. But look at players like Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson, and Joe Burrow who had more success with far worse offensive lines and better weapons. Seems like the way to get young QB success is with high-end weapons more than physical protection.

It is a good thing Ryan Poles has surrounded Caleb Williams with tons of pass-catching talent. The offensive line has some concerns but appears to be fine overall, which historically has been a good combination for offenses around the league.

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