Top Dolphins-Jaguars prop bet predictions from Chris Perkins, David Furones
By David Furones, Chris Perkins, South Florida Sun-Sentinel,
2024-09-06
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and offensive tackle Terron Armstead talk Thursday, Aug. 29, 2024, at the Baptist Training Complex in Miami Gardens. Joe Cavaretta/South Florida Sun-Sentinel/TNS
The Sun Sentinel’s Miami Dolphins writers are picking out a pair of prop bets each week in the 2024 season.
Dolphins columnist Chris Perkins and Dolphins reporter David Furones, neither of whom condone gambling, will make predictions on player props they believe will occur for every Dolphins matchup.
Each writer will offer their “best bet,” a near 50-50 proposition they believe will occur, and a “long shot,” which has to be given betting odds of at least +300, or 3-to-1 probability.
It starts with Miami hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday in a 1 p.m. kickoff at Hard Rock Stadium.
Perk’s Best Bet: Total touchdowns — Over 5.5 (-120)
If the Dolphins don’t have cornerback Jalen Ramsey, this would seem a lock. Both quarterbacks, Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, can spin it.
And both defenses have first-year coordinators. Miami has Anthony Weaver and Jacksonville has Ryan Nielsen. To me, that means there will probably be some growing pains in the season opener.
You know the Dolphins’ offense is good for at least three touchdowns, especially playing at home (13-4 under coach Mike McDaniel), and playing in September (6-1 under McDaniel).
Considering Ramsey, at best, will be limited, I’m thinking the Jags are also good for at least three touchdowns.
Furones’ Best Bet: Jaylen Waddle over 60.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Tyreek Hill receiving yards line is set at 96.5 receiving yards. I debated going with that one, but to get Waddle just hitting the over at a discount of more than 30 yards, I’ll take it.
The Jaguars return the No. 26 pass defense from 2023 and lost safety Rayshawn Jenkins in the offseason. They should struggle with the top passing offense from last season.
I believe much of their resources will be assigned to preventing Hill from going berserk, so Waddle will get his opportunities. Plus, Hill himself said he sees Waddle taking his game to the next level this season.
Perk’s Long Shot: Dolphins’ first touchdown — Tyreek Hill (+550)
This isn’t really a stretch considering Hill can score from almost anywhere on the field. In last year’s opener, a Dolphins 36-34 victory at the Los Angeles Chargers, Hill had two touchdowns, one a 35-yarder and the other a 4-yarder. He totaled 215 yards receiving.
Jacksonville will likely focus its defense on stopping Hill and Waddle. The Jags will probably play two deep safeties to take away the big play.
Hill has seen that. Hill has beaten that. He can’t be stopped.
I’m thinking Hill scores Miami’s first touchdown, probably on a big play.
Furones’ Long Shot: Jonnu Smith anytime touchdown (+325)
I’ve even gone as far as predicting on Dolphins Deep Dive that I believe a tight end will catch the first touchdown of the season for the Dolphins, even though they were the only team to go without a touchdown from a tight end last season.
For the sake of this prop, I don’t have to go that far. I like the Dolphins to score with a tight end Sunday. I feel Smith, the free-agent acquisition, has the best shot at it as the shiny new toy McDaniel has in the offense.
Miami has a number of ways it can get the ball to the FIU product, and I see him scoring at some point Sunday.
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