United States Continues to Lead World in Oil Production as Prices Hit 9 Year Low

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The United States produced more crude oil than any nation at any time, according to the International Energy Statistics Report, for the past six years in a row. Crude oil production in the United States, including condensate, averaged 12.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2023, breaking the previous U.S. and global record of 12.3 million b/d, set in 2019. Average monthly U.S. crude oil production established a monthly record high in December 2023 at more than 13.3 million b/d.

The crude oil production record in the United States in 2023 is unlikely to be broken in any other country in the near term because no other country has reached production capacity of 13.0 million b/d. Saudi Arabia’s state-owned Saudi Aramco recently scrapped plans to increase production capacity to 13.0 million b/d by 2027.

Together, the United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia accounted for 40% (32.8 million b/d) of global oil production in 2023. These three countries have produced more oil than any others since 1971 (counting production in the Russian Federation of the Soviet Union prior to 1991), although the top spot has shifted among them over the past five decades.

In the near term, no country is likely to surpass the record production achieved by the U.S. in 2023, as no other producer has ever reached a daily capacity of 13.0 million barrels. Recently, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned Saudi Aramco scrapped plans to increase production capacity to 13.0 million barrels per day by 2027.

In 2024, analysts forecast that the U.S. will maintain its position as the top oil producer. In fact, according to Macquarie Group, U.S. oil production is expected to achieve a record pace of about 14 million barrels per day by the end of the year.

Goldman Sachs adjusted its expectations for OPEC+ oil production saying it now expects three months of production increases starting from December instead of October, the bank said in a note this week. OPEC+ has agreed to delay a planned oil output increase for October and November, the producers group said on Thursday after crude prices hit their lowest in nine months, adding it could further pause or reverse the hikes if needed.

Big oil is beginning to lean in to the Harris ticket for president. In her interview Thursday the vice president reiterated that she no longer supports the fracking ban that she had called for during her last campaign for president in 2019. She cited President Joe Biden’s 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, on which Harris cast the Senate’s tie-breaking vote, as a sign of what’s possible on climate change and clean energy policy.

“What I have seen is that we can grow and we can increase a thriving clean energy economy without banning fracking,” the Democratic presidential nominee told CNN’s Dana Bash.

Fossil fuel advocates welcomed Harris’ comments, but with a big asterisk — including what she believes on a host of other energy issues.

“Obviously it’s great that she has reversed her position on hydraulic fracturing,” said Dustin Meyer, head of policy at the American Petroleum Institute.

U.S. shale production growth, and the energy sector more broadly, has continued to defy skeptics because, quite simply, American energy producers are getting better at their jobs. Both operators and supporting service companies are making incredible strides in better understanding the rock, drilling wells faster, and deploying significantly longer horizontal laterals. The advances in efficiency are so significant that the rig count is no longer a proper indicator of future production.

Privately owned oil and gas companies have played an important role in this shift.

This is an impressive underdog story — one all Americans can celebrate — in this economy as U.S. oil and gas production growth has contributed directly to U.S. energy security, global energy security, and domestic jobs.

Natural gas production growth has also allowed for a dramatic decline in air pollution and CO2 emissions, a near antithesis to China. The U.S. produces more oil and gas than anywhere in the world, and does so with the rule of law, human rights standards, and the most stringent air quality standards in the world. The U.S. is a world leader in environmental quality, with air pollution plummeting 78% since 1970.

The growth of U.S. natural gas in power generation is also directly correlated to a decline CO2 emissions since the mid 2000s. Furthermore, exporting American natural gas to Europe yields fewer lifecycle emissions than natural gas piped from Russia. American oil and gas is produced more efficiently, with better emissions controls, and stronger pollution control technology than anywhere else in the world.

As such oil production has become increasingly more efficient the last 4 years in the united States and as thst trend continues and American production continues to expand crude oil prices will become increasingly determined by US production and less so by the middle east.