During a rally in Mosinee, Wisconsin, on September 7, 2024, former President Donald Trump criticized Vice President Kamala Harris, claiming that her tiebreaking votes in the Senate led to the worst inflation in U.S. history and cost the average American family $28,000. As Trump ramps up his bid to regain the presidency, these bold assertions have stirred significant public and media attention. However, an in-depth analysis reveals that Trump's claims are a mix of exaggerations and partial truths.
The Facts Behind Harris' Tiebreaking Votes
Trump's statement centered on Harris' role in casting a tiebreaking vote on the motion to proceed with the 2021 American Rescue Plan Act, a $1.9 trillion relief package designed to mitigate the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. This legislation included $1,400 direct payments to most Americans, substantial aid to state and local governments, and expanded unemployment benefits. Notably, Harris did not cast a tiebreaking vote on the final passage of the bill; the Democrats had sufficient votes due to a Republican senator's absence.
Economists broadly agree that the American Rescue Plan contributed to inflation but was not the sole or primary cause. The pandemic's supply chain disruptions and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which led to surging oil prices, played significant roles. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, pointed out that the American Rescue Plan sits "at the bottom of the list" of inflation drivers, with the pandemic and the war in Ukraine being the top contributors.
Inflation Under Biden: A Historic Perspective
Trump claimed that inflation under Biden and Harris reached historic levels. Indeed, inflation peaked at about 9% in 2022, the highest rate in 40 years. However, it was not the worst in U.S. history; during the 1970s and early 1980s, inflation rates reached between 12% and 15%, and in 1946, post-World War II, inflation exceeded 18%.
While the recent spike in inflation was significant, it has since cooled. By July 2024, the year-over-year inflation rate had dropped to 2.9%. Over Biden's presidency, cumulative price increases amount to about 19.4%, averaging roughly 5.5% annually. These figures, while noteworthy, do not constitute the most severe inflationary period in American history.
The $28,000 Claim: Misleading or Contextual?
Trump's assertion that the average American family has lost $28,000 due to inflation under the Biden-Harris administration stems from an inflation tracker by the Republican staff of the Joint Economic Committee. This figure accounts for increased costs in essentials such as food, shelter, transportation, and energy since Biden took office in January 2021.
However, this estimate overlooks wage growth during the same period. Wages rose by 17.7%, nearly offsetting the 19.4% rise in prices, resulting in a net impact of less than half a percentage point per year on household spending power. When considering the period since February 2020, before the pandemic's economic impact, wages have actually outpaced inflation, increasing by 23.3% compared to a 20.9% rise in prices.
Verdict: Exaggeration Meets Partial Truth
In evaluating Trump's claims, it's evident that his statements contain grains of truth but are overshadowed by exaggerations and omissions. Harris' vote did contribute to the passage of the American Rescue Plan, which had some impact on inflation. However, attributing the entirety of the inflation surge and the specific financial burden on American families solely to this legislation is misleading. The more substantial causes lie in global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, which were beyond the control of any single policy or individual.
Economists and analysts from various ideological perspectives agree that while the American Rescue Plan may have added 1 to 4 percentage points to inflation, the broader economic context is essential to understanding the full picture.
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Itâs really funny that the poorest states in the USA are republican states. Democrats have tried to raise minimum wages. But the republicans say that the minimum wage is enough to live on. Itâs not the Biden-Harris administrationâs fault. Orange turd was in charge when Covid hit. The whole country shut down. Many many people died lost their jobs. The country hasnât recovered yet. Plus thereâs wars going on. The grain prices are way higher now because the country gets most of the grain from Ukraine. Poultry prices and eggs are way higher due to the bird flu outbreak.
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