Nate Silver’s Latest Forecast Has Trump Winning Every Single Swing State in Electoral College Blowout

(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Pollster Nate Silver predicted an Electoral College landslide for former President Donald Trump after his model’s latest forecast showed the Republican now has a 63.8 percent chance to win the majority of the Electoral College vote , while his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris , trails with just a 36 percent chance.

Silver’s model, published on his blog Silver Bulletin , marks a shift from earlier projections that favored Harris, or Trump narrowly. The pollster notes the impact of Sunday’s New York Times /Siena College poll , one of his model’s “highest rated pollsters,” that put Trump ahead of Harris – 48 percent to 47 percent – well within the survey’s 3-point error margin.

Per Silver’s model, Trump is now predicted to win 312 electoral votes compared to Harris’s 226. This dramatic upswing surpasses Trump’s previous wins, including his 304-vote victory against Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Crucially, Silver’s prediction places Trump ahead in all the swing states ahead of Tuesday’s ABC News-host presidential debate — which, the pollster caveats, could blunt the impact of the New York Times /Siena poll.

While Silver’s latest prediction paints a bleak picture for Harris, other models show a more competitive race. RealClearPolitics has Harris narrowly ahead with 273 electoral votes, while Project 538 forecasts a victory for Harris with 281 electoral votes to Trump’s 257. Still, the margin between the two candidates remains razor-thin in key states.

Interestingly, Silver’s forecast still gives Harris a slim edge in the popular vote, with a 56 percent chance to come out on top there compared to Trump’s 44 percent.