Michigan’s season outlook, record prediction updated by ESPN’s FPI

The Michigan Wolverines have to pick themselves up off the mat after a 31-12 loss to Texas on Saturday. Following the win, some of the analytics have been adjusted to account for the first two weeks of performances.

ESPN’s Football Power Index has Michigan finishing the year with an 7.2-4.9 record this season, falling three spots to the metric’s No. 17 team in the country. It plays the No. 100 team in the FPI on Saturday with the Arkansas State Red Wolves coming to town. The Wolverines came into the year as the metric’s No. 12 team nationally.

A few other FPI numbers of note are a 7.3% chance of winning the Big Ten, a 23.4% chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoff and a 2.6% chance of making the national championship game. Michigan has a better than 50% chance of victory in 9 of its 11 remaining games, according to FPI. The exceptions are Texas (26.2%) this weekend and Ohio State (22.3%) on Nov. 30 to end the regular season.

So what exactly is FPI?

“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 134; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”

After this week’s update, here’s the breakdown of the numbers and win percentages.

Michigan football’s updated FPI outlook and win projections

Aug. 31 vs. Fresno State (FPI rank: 81st): 30-10 W
Sept. 7 vs. Texas (1st): 31-12 L
Sept. 14 vs. Arkansas St. (100th): 92.5% chance of victory
Sept. 21 vs. USC (8th): 44.4% chance of victory
Sept. 28 vs. Minnesota (56th) : 77.3% chance of victory
Oct. 5 at Washington (22nd): 45.1% chance of victory
Oct. 19 at Illinois (52nd): 68.4% chance of victory
Oct. 26 vs. Michigan State (66th) : 82.3% chance of victory
Nov. 2 vs. Oregon (13th): 55.1% chance of victory
Nov. 9 at Indiana (26th) : 52.7% chance of victory
Nov. 23 vs. Northwestern (70th) : 85.8% chance of victory
Nov. 30 at Ohio State (4th) : 13.6% chance of victory

What’s next for the Wolverines?

Michigan hosts Arkansas State on Saturday at noon on Big Ten Network. The Wolverines are 23.5-point favorites with the over/under set at 45.5 points.

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