The San Francisco 49ers round off a wild Week 1 in primetime when they host the New York Jets on Monday Night Football.
Incredibly, it is the 49ers' first Week 1 home game with fans since the 2017 season. That was Kyle Shanahan's first game as head coach. San Francisco hosted the Arizona Cardinals in 2020, the pandemic season in which fans were not permitted to attend games at Levi's Stadium.
With Aaron Rodgers making his long-awaited return for the Jets, much of the focus will be on his quarterback battle with Brock Purdy . The fact Shanahan is going against his former defensive coordinator Robert Saleh makes the game even more compelling.
But there are several more granular things to watch for that will be crucial to the defending NFC champions' hopes of making it a return to forget for Rodgers.
Interior protection
As was the case during his tenure as the 49ers' defensive coordinator, Saleh is blessed with an ultra-deep defensive line that can throw waves of pass rushers at their opponents.
With Haason Reddick still away from the team as his bizarre contract drama continues, the Jets won't have the top-tier edge rusher available to attack a 49er offensive line that is particularly vulnerable at right tackle.
But the Jets could have a distinct advantage attacking the middle of the O-Line, with that advantage made up largely of All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams.
Only Aaron Donald and Dexter Lawrence had a better pass rush win rate among interior defensive linemen than Williams (19.5%) last season, per Pro Football Focus.
Asked about Williams, offensive line coach Chris Foerster said last week:
"He’s got a great, low center of gravity. He’s gotten bigger. Our guys were laughing the other day. He’s listed at 303 pounds. I don’t think he’s at 303 anymore. That might have been his Combine weight. But he is a load and he plays with a great center of gravity. He plays with great energy. He’s got explosion in his body. So he is one of those guys. We listed a bunch of guys the other day as to where he would rank with and I’m not going to give you the ranking between the great defensive tackles that we face and we face a lot of them. And he’s just one of those real strong and explosive guys that you don’t get on him quick if you don’t take care of your business, you’re not recovering. He’s too strong and too powerful a guy, and it makes it hard to recover. So you got to be on your business early to take care of if you have a chance to take care of him."
In addition to the threat of Williams, the 49ers will also have to deal with the array of stunts the Jets are likely to throw at them, with Jermaine Johnson II and Will McDonald IV sure to get plenty of opportunities to attack the interior as well as chances to exploit the weakness of Colton McKivitz at right tackle.
It will therefore be an acid test in his NFL debut for rookie right guard Dominick Puni , while center Jake Brendel and left guard Aaron Banks, who has been dealing with a finger injury , will each face stern examinations.
For the 49ers to prevent the Jets' defense from wrecking the game and making life much easier on Rodgers on the other side of the ball, it is imperative that trio rise to the primetime occasion.
The surprising Shanascope target
Shanahan hasn't put a lot of stock in going against his former defensive coordinator in this game, but the 49ers head coach emphasized why the Jets' defense can be so difficult to exploit.
"It's a very sound scheme that there's not a lot of holes in it," said Shanahan. "And if you have good players and you have a scheme that doesn't have a lot of holes, it's tough to expose it on offense."
The Jets have a host of good players on defense, especially in the secondary, with Shanahan attributing little importance to Jets corners not traveling with receivers.
"It would, if one of them wasn't very good," Shanahan replied when asked if that made it easier on an offensive play-caller. "But they're both [Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed] really good players. They've got a real good nickel [Michael Carter II]. So it's not much of a difference."
So where can the 49ers exploit the Jets' defense? Well, a popular meme on social media among a section of NFL writers features Shanahan looking down a superimposed microscope, and is frequently followed by a picture or clip of an opponent's off-ball linebacker. Shanahan consistently puts off-ball linebackers in hell, and there is a potential target of the Shanascope in this game.
C.J. Mosley is a five-time Pro Bowler at linebacker, but his coverage numbers from last year indicate he will be the target.
Among off-ball linebackers targeted at least 25 times in 2023, Mosley gave up the highest Expected Points Added per target (0.40). By contrast, fellow starter Quincy Williams was the 11th-best linebacker in the NFL by that measure.
The 49ers' offensive gameplan has long since been built around putting linebackers in conflict. Isolating Mosley and giving him unfavourable matchups in coverage by getting him one on one with some of the 49ers' top pass-catchers will be critical to San Francisco's hopes of triumph.
Bottling up Breece
San Francisco defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen was hugely complimentary about Jets running back Breece Hall when asked about him last week.
"He’s a dynamic player. He’s explosive, he’s got speed, he’s got size," Sorensen said. 'He can really cut back and get on edges of people. He’s had so many catches in the pass game. He’s just, he’s a weapon. He’s a weapon. They get him the ball and he’s explosive in any way that he gets it."
Yet for all the plaudits thrown Hall's way after a season in which he had 1,585 yards from scrimmage and nine total touchdowns, the numbers from the 2023 campaign were disappointing in terms of his efficiency and do not reflect his explosive traits.
Indeed, Hall had only nine percent of his carries go for 10 yards or more, compared to 16.2 percent for 49ers star Christian McCaffrey. Hall, however, did significant damage on those explosive rushing attempts, equaling McCaffrey with three rushing touchdowns of 10 yards or more.
Hall was dealt a raw hand in 2023, running behind a Jets offensive line that ranked 29th in adjusted line yards (which takes running back yardage and assigns responsibility to the offensive line), per FTN Fantasy, with an average of 3.64 yards per carry. On Hall's carries, the Jets averaged just 2.5 ALY per attempt.
New York remodeled its offensive line in the offseason, acquiring three veterans. Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses were brought in to play tackle, with Olu Fashanu waiting in the wings, while John Simpson was signed from Baltimore to man the left guard spot.
Their experience should be invaluable to the Jets, but it shouldn't be ignored that Moses and Smith are both 33, the latter with a checkered injury history. Going against Nick Bosa and Leonard Floyd, they will have their hands full to prevent that duo from blowing up outside runs.
If Bosa and Floyd can consistently win that battle and Maliek Collins and Javon Hargrave can create enough disruption on the interior to limit Hall's room to run, that will pile more pressure on a 40-year-old quarterback whose movement is unlikely to be what it once was coming off an Achilles injury.
Related: The most important defensive players for the 49ers in the 2024 season, not including their captains
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