Francine's track nudges east again; Vermilion Bay in center of path

The National Hurricane Center has once again changed the forecast track for Tropical Storm Francine, with that track nudging farther east.

According to the 10 p.m. CDT update, NHC forecasters have reverted to their forecast of a landfall in Vermilion Bay. That forecast mirrors the forecasts the NHC released Monday morning. According to the new track, Francine will make landfall between Intracoastal City and Marsh Island as either a Category 1 or Category 2 storm by 7 p.m. Wednesday. That’s about 50 miles farther east than projected by the models the NHC released at 4 p.m. and 7 p.m., which put landfall near the Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge along the Cameron/Vermilion Parish Line.

Francine’s maximum sustained winds are measured at 65 miles per hour. Francine will become a hurricane early Tuesday morning. The question of Francine’s intensity at landfall, however, remains unsettled.

“After strengthening this afternoon, Francine's intensity appears to have leveled off for now,” NHC forecasters wrote in their 10 p.m. forecast advisory. “Around 18Z today, microwave images indicated that the storm had a closed low-level eyewall and a relatively symmetric cloud pattern.  However, an intrusion of dry air has caused the inner core convection to degrade.  The Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating Francine this evening and have found that the maximum winds have changed little from earlier and remain around 55 kt.  However, the minimum pressure reported from the aircraft has dropped to 992 mb, which could indicate that strengthening will resume soon.”

Forecasters say environmental conditions are ripe for Francine to intensify rapidly before it picks up speed on Tuesday and approaches the Louisiana coast. While forecast models agree that an upper level trough will cause the storm to push northeast and accelerate towards Louisiana, the models disagree on the time of landfall.

The various spaghetti models also disagree on the exact location of landfall. The European and American models all put landfall somewhere in Vermilion Bay. However, the runs in both models are evenly split between landfall near Intracoastal City and landfall closer to Morgan City. The Global Ensemble Prediction System’s spaghetti plots all skew much farther west, putting landfall between Houston and Intracoastal City.

New Orleans and the surrounding areas remain under a tropical storm watch. The Louisiana coast from Morgan City to Grand Isle are under a tropical storm warning, while the Louisiana coast from the Texas state line to Morgan City are under a hurricane warning.

National Hurricane Center forecasters predict flash flooding across south Louisiana because of storm surge and heavy rains. A five- to 10-foot storm surge is expected along the Louisiana coast between Cameron and Port Fourchon. Parts of Acadiana are expected to receive between 10 and 16 inches of rain as a result of Francine. Forecasters say the New Orleans metro area could see between four to eight inches of rain Wednesday and Thursday, with the Slidell area receiving the heaviest rainfall.