Next Charles Leclerc curse to break on horizon with unwanted Baku data

Formula 1 lands in Azerbaijan for the eighth time in its history to race on the iconic Baku street circuit.

It does so on the back of a Ferrari victory at Monza with Charles Leclerc breaking McLaren’s big chance of a 1-2 finish. After also winning in Monaco and breaking his most famous curse, can Leclerc also break his mighty Azerbaijan GP curse? Yes, he has one there too!

THE CURSE OF CHARLES LECLERC AND FERRARI IN BAKU

Leclerc has achieved the last three pole positions at the Azerbaijan GP but has failed to hammer home the benefit of starting the race in pole position on Sunday.

Leclerc’s Baku curse is even more terrifying than his Monaco hoodoo, which he has already managed to break this year.

After the famous ‘I am stupid’ radio message after his accident on the ‘castle climb’ on his debut with Ferrari at this circuit, Leclerc has made Baku a ‘cursed’ circuit for him. A circuit where only Mercedes and Red Bull have won in its seven editions since 2016. Therefore, it is also a curse that also extends to the entire Ferrari team.

But this year everything can change. After what happened in the Italian GP and seeing the growth of Ferrari after the summer break, the Italian team and Leclerc have a great opportunity to break this curse, too. Of course, they will not be the favourites in Baku.

McLaren, unless there is a surprise, will once again be the reference in the Azerbaijan GP. With a car that has solved its top speed problems after the latest update and clearly the best in cornering, the papaya team should occupy the top positions.

The Woking-based team already had the best package at Monza, but once again the team failed with both race approach and strategy. Ferrari was better in this regard… but in Baku their SF24 should also be better suited to the characteristics of the circuit than Mercedes and Red Bull.

In Baku, a narrow and technical street circuit, the differences should also be affected by the driver factor with a Sector 1 that features heavy braking, a very twisty and kerby Sector 2 and a Sector 3 with a very problematic Turn 15, which is key to find a good lap time.

More on the next race on the F1 calendar: The Azerbaijan GP

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👉 The updated Drivers’ and Constructors’ standings after the Italian Grand Prix

GOOD NEWS FOR LANDO NORRIS IN BAKU

The Baku street circuit has the shortest pole run to Turn 1 at just 141 metres, the shortest on the calendar. This is undoubtedly great news for Lando Norris if he takes pole position in Azerbaijan. The McLaren driver still hasn’t finished an opening lap of the race without losing the lead every time he has started from P1 on the grid.

To his credit, the start in Italy was relatively good. However, Oscar Piastri was braver and less conservative and did not hesitate to attack his teammate a few corners later.

SERGIO PEREZ, THE ONLY MULTIPLE TIME RACE WINNER IN BAKU

In the seven editions of the Azerbaijan GP, we have had six different winners. Only one driver has repeated race wins in Baku… and that driver is Sergio Perez.

The Mexican usually stands out for his performance on high-speed street circuits and the Baku track in particular has become one of his specialties on the F1 calendar.

Except for the 2016 and 2022 seasons, the victories in Baku have been really tight. Affected also by the appearance of the Safety Car, the average winning margin at the Azerbaijan GP is only 6.989s after seven editions held already. Excitement is always guaranteed at this track!

WHAT MAKES BAKU A UNIQUE CIRCUIT?

If there is one thing that distinguishes the Azerbaijan GP from other circuits, it is the very long main straight and the narrow corners of Sector 2. The Hermann Tilke-designed circuit has a 2.2 kilometre straight – counting the succession of turns 16 to 20 which are flat-out – making it the longest in the F1 calendar.

Valtteri Bottas holds the record for the highest speed recorded in an official Formula 1 session. Thanks to this long straight, the Finnish driver achieved a top speed of 378 km/h in qualifying in the 2016 season, when the GP was held under the name of European GP before changing to Azerbaijan GP for the 2017 season.

In addition, the passage between turns 8 and 9 of the Baku circuit has the narrowest point on the entire Formula 1 calendar. Only 7.6 metres wide, the climb to the ‘Old Town’ is a nightmare for the drivers, especially in qualifying.

RACE STRATEGY AND TYRES

For the first time in its seven editions, Formula 1 visits Azerbaijan in September. This may lead to higher track temperatures than experienced in previous years as the races were held in April or June. We can also expect areas of the track shaded more than others due to the buildings close to the circuit, making some parts of the track colder in this 6.003 kilometre long circuit.

But even so, the race strategy should be a one-stop with the hardest compound being the main choice for the teams. The drivers will be using Pirelli’s softest range – C3 for the hard tyre, C4 for the medium tyre and C5 for the soft tyre.

The Safety Car has appeared in six of the seven editions that have been held at this circuit. In both 2017 and 2021 the safety car was deployed up to three times in the race!

Therefore, there is a high probability that in this 2024 edition we will again have the group compacted in the middle of the race and making the strategy a little less predictable than it is on paper.

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