Hurricane Francine bearing down on Louisiana; Landfall early Wednesday evening

Francine may gain some additional strength as it spins northeastward over the Gulf of Mexico with its sights set on blasting ashore in Louisiana with a significant risk to lives and property from flooding and high winds.

An area under AccuWeather meteorologists' radar for weeks recently gave birth to Tropical Storm Francine, which is forecast to strike Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane. Francine could be strengthening at landfall rather than weakening, which could increase impacts.

"Steering breezes will guide Francine onshore in Louisiana early Wednesday evening, so the tropical storm will spend the better part of the daylight over the Gulf of Mexico, where it will have the opportunity to strengthen," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said Wednesday morning.

The latest on Francine

As of 8 p.m. EDT Tuesday evening, Francine had become a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph and higher gusts. By Wednesday morning, Francine had gained further wind intensity, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph--just 6 mph shy of Category 2 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane was moving northeast at 12 mph, and is forecast to pick up additional forward speed. Francine was located less than 200 miles to the southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana.

A hurricane warning was in effect from Texas/Louisiana state line to Grand Isle, Louisiana, and a tropical storm warning was in effect for the Louisiana coast from Grand Isle through Lake Pontchartrain. A tropical storm warning was also in effect for the southern Mississippi and Alabama coasts.

As Francine continues to move over warm, open waters offshore for several hours on Wednesday, some additional increase in strength is likely.

• Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+

At this time, Francine is a 2 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes, which gauges the risks to lives and property, damage to infrastructure, and economic loss due to wind damage and flooding from rainfall and storm surge. The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale only accounts for the sustained winds of a hurricane.

Should Francine strengthen beyond a Category 2 on the Saffir Simpson scale, the storm surge would be greater and impacts from wind and rain would be significantly higher. Similarly, a farther east track that brings greater impacts to New Orleans may result in a higher RealImpact level.

Minimal impacts in Texas from Francine

"The forecast track of Francine will prevent big rain from falling over most of interior Texas as dry air continues to sweep southeastward on the storm's western flank," DaSilva said.

Houston's stormwater infrastructure should handle the anticipated sporadic rainfall well, but minor travel problems due to downpours and runoff are possible, especially to the east of the city.

Some torrential downpours will occur in far northeastern Texas, with the likelihood of flooding rain near and north of where the tropical cyclone makes landfall along the central Gulf coast.

Surf will remain dangerous for swimmers throughout the Texas coast into Wednesday evening, and seas and surf will build throughout the Gulf Coast region as Francine intensifies and moves northward.

Louisiana to bear brunt of Francine's wind, rain and storm surge

The most dangerous aspect of a landfilling hurricane is the rapid rise of coastal waters that penetrate inland, known as storm surge.

"AccuWeather meteorologists, based on the track and intensity of Francine, are projecting a storm surge of 6-10 feet along much of the Louisiana coast with a pocket of 10-15 feet on some of the inland bays in south-central Louisiana," DaSilva said. "As long as Francine tracks into central Louisiana, the storm surge in New Orleans, including Lake Pontchartrain, should be 3-6 feet. Should Francine track a bit farther to the east, which some data suggests, then the storm surge could be greater in southeastern Louisiana."

Francine will pack a punch in terms of strong winds with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ gust of 130 mph along the south-central Louisiana coast.

A broad zone of wind gusts frequenting 60-80 mph will occur over much of southern and eastern Louisiana and southern and central Mississippi. Winds of this intensity and even lower at sustained speeds are plenty strong enough to knock down trees and trigger regional to widespread power outages, including in New Orleans, Baton Rouge and Lafayette, Louisiana, as well as Jackson and Biloxi, Mississippi. Wind gusts of 100-120 mph are anticipated from Morgan City to near New Iberia and Houma, Louisiana.

Where tornadoes occur, damage can be more severe and pose a greater risk to lives and property.

The highest risk of inland tornadoes will be north and east of the storm center. Because some dry air has become entrained into Francine's circulation, it may increase the number and intensity of severe thunderstorms, which could boost the number of tornadoes beginning Wednesday and possibly continuing into Friday.

The most far-reaching impacts from Francine will be heavy rainfall, which can trigger everything from small stream and low-lying area flooding to significant rises on some of the south-central United States region's secondary rivers and bayous.

A broad area where 4-8 inches of rain will fall is likely, centered on the Mississippi Delta region, with 8-12 inches of rain and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 24 inches forecast in southern Louisiana.

Rain, water level rise needed on Mississippi River for barge transport operations

"Water levels on the Mississippi River have plummeted in recent weeks and were at near-historic lows once again for the third year in a row," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

Areas of significant drought have been expanding over the Mississippi Basin.

The rain and reasonable water level rise on the Mississippi River are much-needed from a tug and barge transport impact. The waterway is invaluable for the low-coast transport of grains and other commodities.

Since the amount of rain will tail off quickly over the Ohio River Valley and no rain from Francine will reach the upper Mississippi Valley, not enough of a water level rise, or one that lasts very long, is likely to occur on the mid-Mississippi stem. The Ohio River contributes more than the main stem of the Mississippi River at the Ohio-Mississippi River confluence.

Slow movement of Francine while inland will boost rainfall amounts over the South Central region.

However, Francine's northward movement into much of the Midwest may be blocked by high pressure. As a result, the northward extent of the system's moisture, as a tropical rainstorm, will likely diminish.

Could a spinoff tropical storm develop?

As Francine loses wind intensity over the interior Central states, a new tropical concern may spin up just off the Carolina coast this weekend.

That feature has the potential to evolve into a tropical storm this weekend and drift inland over the Southeastern states early next week packing torrential rain, severe thunderstorms and strong winds.

The next name on the list of Atlantic tropical storms is Gordon.

Francine to affect petroleum operations in Gulf

It has been a few years since the petroleum industry in the central Gulf of Mexico had to weather a hurricane and Francine will lead to disruptions.

How strong Francine becomes will determine the scope of impact on the petroleum industry over the Gulf of Mexico and refinery operations along the Gulf coast.

However, the strengthening tropical cyclone will likely have some negative effect on operations, which could be reflected as higher prices at the pump for a time.

Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.