Francine takes aim at Louisiana, where it's expected to hit as a hurricane

Updated September 10, 2024 at 19:20 PM ET

A hurricane warning is in effect for much of southern Louisiana as Tropical Storm Francine is expected to arrive on Wednesday from the Gulf of Mexico.

It's expected to bring storm surge, strong winds, heavy rainfall and flash flooding to Louisiana and parts of Mississippi and Texas. On Tuesday afternoon, forecasters said southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle could also face severe weather.

“We need to keep our eyes on this one. It won’t be Laura , it won’t be Ida , but it is still going to be an extensive impact in terms of the role of that storm as it rolls into south-central and southeastern Louisiana," state climatologist Jay Grymes told reporters.

The storm is currently in the Gulf, about 130 miles east of Mexico's Tamaulipas state, as of 5 p.m. ET. Forecasters said the storm is moving northeast and away from the coasts of northeast Mexico and southern Texas.

Its maximum sustained winds were 65 mph on Tuesday, but it's expected to strengthen and to make landfall on the central Louisiana coast as a Category 1 or Category 2 hurricane, according to the National Weather Service .

Louisiana will start to see the tropical-storm-force winds moving inland by mid-morning on Wednesday, with Francine making landfall mid-afternoon, Grymes said. Residents will need to have any preparations complete by then.

Rainfall across southern Louisiana could total 4 to 8 inches through Friday morning, forecasters said, with parts of eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle accumulating 12 inches. The heavy rainfall will push some rivers over flood stage. "All of south-central and southeastern Louisiana under the gun with this storm," Grymes said.

The south-central Louisiana coast is at greatest risk of storm surge, with the coast from Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon potentially seeing 5 to 10 feet, the NWS said.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for coastal areas not under a hurricane warning, including Louisiana's far southeast, along with the coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the upper Texas coast.

Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry declared a statewide state of emergency on Monday.

Cameron Parish, in the state's southwest, and a large section of Terrebonne Parish, in the southeast, are under mandatory evacuation orders . South-central Louisiana's Iberia Parish recommended that residents south of Highway 90 evacuate. Nearby St. Martin Parish also recommended evacuation for residents in the low-lying areas of Lower St. Martin Parish (Stephensville and Belle River).

Louisiana's department of transportation offered a map of evacuation routes .

Both New Orleans and Baton Rouge are located in a large section of southeast Louisiana that could see major flooding rain and several tornadoes . Baton Rouge's mayor declared a state of emergency and schools are closed Wednesday and Thursday. School systems across the state will be closed Wednesday. NPR member station WWNO has a list of which school systems are closing .

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