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South Florida Sun Sentinel
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills: Who has the edge in division rivalry game on Thursday night?
By David Furones, South Florida Sun-Sentinel,
2 days ago
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen passes Sunday, Jan 7, 2024 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens in the 21-14 win over the Miami Dolphins. Joe Cavaretta/South Florida Sun-Sentinel/TNS
When the Dolphins run: Miami had a modest ground game in its opener against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and now the Dolphins’ top two running backs are banged up. Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane are dealing with chest and ankle injuries, respectively . The rushing attack went for 81 yards on 25 attempts Sunday, a 3.2 average, in the first game of the Robert Jones-Aaron Brewer-Liam Eichenberg interior offensive line combination in 2024.
A bright spot was found late in veteran Jeff Wilson Jr., who had an efficient 26 yards on five carries. Rookie Jaylen Wright, who was a healthy inactive Sunday, could make his NFL regular-season debut if one or both of Mostert or Achane can’t play Thursday night against Buffalo.
The Bills surrendered 5 yards per carry in their opener against the Arizona Cardinals, but that number was inflated by 57 yards allowed to scrambling quarterback Kyler Murray. Buffalo returns the defensive tackle combination of Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones with solid young middle linebacker Terrel Bernard, but remember this unit was vulnerable against the run in 2023. The Miami ground game, though, appears hampered. Edge: Bills
When the Bills run: When Buffalo reeled off a six-game winning streak from the end of the regular season through the wild-card round of the playoffs last season, it leaned on its running game. The Bills stuck to that formula in Sunday’s win over the Cardinals, keeping quarterback Josh Allen to 23 pass attempts while running the ball 33 times as a team.
Running back James Cook, the former Miami Central High product, saw the bulk of that workload, getting 19 carries and going for 71 yards. Allen, always a threat with his legs, rushed for two touchdowns. The Bills no longer have Mitch Morse to anchor the offensive line in the middle, but now have Connor McGovern at center.
The Dolphins didn’t have a great debut against the run, allowing 4.9 yards per carry to the Jaguars, letting Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne both reel off big chunk plays. They did make the game-changing play in run defense, though, albeit while nearly allowing Etienne to run for his second touchdown, when safety Jevon Holland forced the key fumble that shifted momentum . Miami has the personnel to be better at stopping the run, between Sieler, Calais Campbell and linebackers David Long Jr. and Jordyn Brooks. Edge: Even
When the Dolphins pass: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa came away from Week 1 like he did the 2023 season, leading the NFL in passing yards. His 338 yards were enough to lead the league in the opening week. He hit some big plays down the field to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, including the 80-yard touchdown to Hill after the fumble recovery. He still was shaky at times in the opener and could find more consistency, when targeting others not named Hill, Waddle or Achane out of the backfield, who had seven catches for 76 yards.
The Bills secondary seems vulnerable this year after overhauling on the back end. Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp are the starting safeties after Buffalo cut ties with its longtime combination of Jordan Poyer (now with the Dolphins) and Micah Hyde. The Bills also released cornerback Tre’Davious White, and nickel cornerback Taron Johnson is out for Thursday’s game , creating a huge hole for Buffalo. The Dolphins’ speedy playmakers should get their opportunities against this secondary.
That said, they did hold Arizona in check through the air in the opener. The pass rush was a big reason. Former University of Miami standout Greg Rousseau sacked Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray three times. Veteran, former star pass-rusher Von Miller had a sack, and they also have A.J. Epenesa on the edge. Tackles Terron Armstead and Austin Jackson will have their hands full, but Tagovailoa gets the ball out quick, regardless. Edge: Dolphins
When the Bills pass: Allen, who has historically torched Miami , was an efficient 18 of 23 for 232 yards and two passing touchdowns to go with his two rushing scores in the opener against Arizona. He is turnover-prone, and did lose a fumble, while not throwing an interception Sunday. The Dolphins know what it’s like to face him, but he also lost a lot in his receiving corps this offseason.
Buffalo no longer has star wide receiver Stefon Diggs or No. 2 option Gabe Davis. Rookie Keon Coleman led the Bills with 51 receiving yards in Week 1. Khalil Shakir had one touchdown, and Mack Hollins had the other. He has strong second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid and can throw to Cook out of the backfield. Playing four days after his 2024 debut on a bad hamstring, the hope is Dolphins cornerback Jalen Ramsey is running more comfortably in his second game after giving up a pair of big plays Sunday.
But he and outside linebacker Jaelan Phillips surpassed their projected snap counts , as Phillips played his first game coming off the torn Achilles of last November. He had a sack, as did Campbell and Emmanuel Ogbah. Miami will need to apply that pressure against Allen against tackles Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, while containing the dual-threat quarterback in the pocket so he can’t devastate you with this legs. Edge: Even
Special teams: Buffalo is always solid in the third phase of the game. Dolphins special teams coordinator Danny Crossman knows this, having been there previously and falling victim to a crucial punt return touchdown in last year’s regular-season finale.
But Deonte Harty, who scored that backbreaker the last time the teams squared off, is no longer with the Bills. Former Buffalo gunner and special teams ace Siran Neal is now actually with Miami — and exceptional at downing punts. Miami punter Jake Bailey had a strong season debut, flipping the field consistently on Jacksonville while the Dolphins trailed. And, of course, kicker Jason Sanders kicked a game-winner from 52 yards Sunday, bouncing back from an earlier miss . Edge: Even
Intangibles: The Bills have devastated the Dolphins in recent years, winning 11 of the past 12 pairings. That’s got to create a mental edge. But there has been a lot of turnover on that roster. Many of those players aren’t even there, Allen notwithstanding, of course. The Bills coming back from three games down with five weeks remaining last season feels like the tipping point that starts shifting this rivalry Miami’s way. The Dolphins don’t get the early afternoon sun advantage this trip to Miami Gardens for the Bills, but it’s still going to be plenty hot and humid and the western New Yorkers will be sweating profusely. Plus, visiting teams have an even harder time on the road when playing on a short week. Edge: Dolphins
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