The 2024 NBA preseason officially begins in less than one month, which means that if you are in the prediction business, we are approaching the buzzer to get in your last-minute prognosis on the season.
There is plenty of allure surrounding the Oklahoma City Thunder, partly due to the incredible rise of star big man Chet Holmgren. As a rookie, the 22-year-old established himself as one of the best young players in the association.
The crucial next step?
Entering the upcoming season, Holmgren isn’t even one of the top five shooters on the Thunder roster. But if you think that the big man has already reached his ceiling as a shooter from the perimeter, think again.
Chet converted a few ticks below 40% from the 3-point line on a touch over four attempts per game, which is solid but even more impressive when you consider he did that at over seven feet tall in only his debut campaign. There is plenty of room for improvement in his inside-outside game — but how much growth will he show in Year 2?
According to USA Today’s Clemente Almanza, a huge step forward is on the horizon, which can only mean great things for the Thunder. In a recent article, the writer listed his three biggest predictions for Holmgren as a sophomore, and perhaps the most intriguing one is how he’ll showcase his expanded scoring arsenal.
“What helped make Holmgren into a top-two pick was his offensive potential,” he writes . “He's shown signs of being a seven-footer who can handle the ball and stretch the floor. He shot 37% from 3 on 4.3 attempts last season. Expect that number to improve as he will get more off-dribble opportunities to score around the perimeter. If he can increase his outside volume and stay around 37% from 3, that's a massive player development victory for OKC that opens up its offensive ceiling. Pair that with being used more as a lob threat in pick-and-rolls, defenses must account for Holmgren at all three levels.”
As a rookie, the ascending big man indicated his intriguing shooting potential. One of the biggest things that stood out was the diversity in his shot type. The majority of his shots came from 2-point range (63.4%), which is typical for a big man. But only 29.6% of those attempts were within the restricted area (0-3 ft.), not to mention that he took 20.8% of his shots between 3 and 10 ft. from the basket and 36.6% from beyond the arc.
It shows he has confidence in his three-level scoring ability and isn’t married to a particular area on the court. He converted a rock-solid 38.5% on catch-and-shoot triggers from beyond the arc and 35.7% with his closest defender 2-4 ft. from him.
All these numbers reflect a deep shooting profile for a player whose entire skillset — let alone his 3-point shooting — is in its infancy. It is safe to say that Holmgren’s transition to elite outside shooting will directly help the Thunder win more regular and especially postseason games. Deep-range proficiency in a player is one thing. But when you have someone on the roster who can do it at over seven feet tall, it changes everything.
Related: Chet Holmgren impresses NBA players in latest open run
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