The Gunners face away trips to Tottenham on Sunday and then Manchester City next weekend, in between a trick first Champions League test of the season away at Atalanta.
And the Arsenal great believes his former side’s title challenge will be extinguished if they don’t pick up at least four points from those two games.
“Arsenal's Premier League season all comes down to the next two games against Tottenham and Man City,” he told Sky Sports. “They need four points. It's as simple as that.
“If they get anything less, then you start to worry because you're playing catch-up against a machine in Man City. If they draw against Spurs and lose at Man City a week later, they're probably going to be seven points behind and I think that would be it.
Paul Merson is concerned for Arsenal going into the North London Derby (Getty Images)
“I know there are 30-odd games left but I just can't see how they make up the seven points. I was very bullish last year saying Arsenal would definitely win the North London Derby but I'm not so sure this season - and it's a game they can't afford to lose in the title race.”
Arsenal will be without Declan Rice after his red card against Brighton, while new signing Mikel Merino is out injured and has been joined on the sidelines by captain Martin Odegaard after a nasty-looking ankle injury picked up while on international duty.
“I'm a bit worried for Arsenal without the suspended Declan Rice and Tottenham being at home,” Merson added. “Last season, Arsenal dominated and then all of a sudden they let in a goal and you could only see one result, and that was Tottenham coming back.
“I don't think there's a lot wrong with Tottenham at the moment. They have been bang unlucky. They could easily be sitting on nine points and top of the league. Tottenham dominated Leicester and then should have got a draw against Newcastle at worst. They end up drawing and losing those two games.
“With experience, you make sure you don't get beat at Newcastle and at Leicester when it did go 1-1, they didn't look like they were going to score again and that would have been worrying. But that comes with experience and another year and another year. Look how long it took Man City to win the Champions League.
“It's the same with the Premier League, the manager would have come away and gone, you know what, we should have just not lost against Newcastle. At the time you're thinking if they don't win this game, they've just dropped two points.
There's not a lot in it at the moment with Spurs. They've not been as bad as what people probably think only because of the points they've got. The performances haven't been that bad.”
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