Concerns grow about energy security as Francine approaches oil-rich Gulf Coast

As Tropical Storm Francine makes its way toward the U.S., many drivers might be worried about how the storm will affect their gas tanks and their wallets.

Gas prices and gas supply, at least in terms of tropical storms and hurricanes, have much to do with whether the storms impact oil refineries.

Hurricane Francine disrupting travel from Texas to Florida as she prepares to make landfall

Nearly half of America’s petroleum refining capacity is located along the Gulf Coast, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, so a tropical storm or hurricane moving in that direction raises concerns.

Despite the Gulf Coast being in Francine’s crosshairs, the storm’s impact on gas prices and supply may be minimal.

“Given the fact that the storm is going to be somewhat low level, it doesn’t appear that it will have a major impact on refineries that are along the Louisiana coast,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

Hurricane Francine intensified into a Category 1 as millions prepare for life-threatening impacts

He noted that gas prices today are at their lowest level since 2021, so any impact on gas prices would require a significant departure from what is expected of the storm’s intensity.

In contrast, Hurricane Harvey, a Category 4 hurricane at landfall caused refineries to shut down for more than a week or so in 2017, De Haan said.

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Since Francine is expected to be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, De Haan noted the lower rainfall totals and lower flood risk to refineries.

“It wouldn’t eliminate it, of course, but there’s certainly a wide range of possibility,” he said. “Flooding and wind damage is primarily the thing we look at when it comes to refineries and the storm. Thankfully, we may be limited in both of those regards.”

De Haan also advised drivers against rushing out and filling up their gas tanks ahead of Francine. In addition to the storm’s minimal impact on gasoline supply, he said that gas prices have been falling for the past six weeks and will likely continue falling.

“Motorists that are needlessly filling up today could be spending more on filling their tank than they have to,” he said.

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