Buccaneers are going to have to beat the Lions the old fashioned way and it won't be easy

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' 2023 season came to a screeching halt in Motown thanks to a 27-24 loss to the Detroit Lions in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. So, it's easy to see why the upcoming Week 2 matchup is highly anticipated amongst those donning the pewter and red.

“Any time you finish the season against somebody on the road, especially, and then you play them early on, it’s something that you always look forward to,” Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield told reporters on Monday. “Especially the competition level, Detroit is a fun place to play. Dan Campbell always has those guys ready to play, so yeah, we’re looking forward to it.

"There’s a lot of things to learn on from this tape, but whenever you’re playing them, you expect it to be a really physical game, so we have to be ready for that."

Bucs have to stop Lions' physical ground attack, first and foremost

Mayfield is right. The Lions are one of the NFL's most physical teams and they picked up right where they left off on Sunday night against the Los Angeles Rams. All one has to do is put in the overtime tape and they'll see Lions RB David Montomgery pound LA's defense for 45-yards and the game-winning touchdown on just five carries.

The catalyst behind the Lions' overtime drive, and game in general, was their all-star offensive line. After one week, Montgomery has the third-highest yards before contact rate (5.4) among running backs with at least 15 carries. For the full drive, the Lions didn't register one negative play and gained nearly nine yards per play.

Said offensive line is the backbone of the offense and it allows offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to run the scheme that's allowed Jared Goff and co. to flourish over the last couple of seasons. When people think of the Lions, they typically think of Goff, Amon-Ra St.Brown, and Sam LaPorta leading the way and that's understandable considering the points and highlights they provide. However, it's the Lions' physical running game, begat from the top-end offensive line, that gets things going.

It allows the Lions to run play-action, which is one of their biggest strengths. The Lions ran play-action on 26.2% of pass plays in 2023, which was sixth-most among quarterbacks that started at least 16 games, per Pro Football Focus. Goff threw 10 touchdowns to just one interception and finished with the second-most passing yards (1,502) among 28 qualifying quarterbacks with at least 356 drop backs. That's about a third of both his passing touchdowns (30) and passing yardage (4,574) for the entire year off play-action, alone. Per Sports Info Solutions, the Lions averaged 0.24 EPA/attempt running play-action in 2023, compared to 0.008 EPA/attempt without it.

34.4% of Goff's pass attempts were of the play-action variety against the Rams and he was effective as usual, completing 7-of-9 passes for 87-yards. When the running game is clicking, that allows the Lions passing attack to remain varied, which in turn spreads the defense out. Case in point: Montgomery faced a stacked box, which is eight men or more within five yards of the line of scrimmage/tackle box, on just 5.9% of carries Sunday night, which is currently the second-fewest attempts among running backs with at least 15 carries, per NFL's Next Gen Stats.

The Buccaneers are going to have to bring their run defense with them to Detroit and fortunately, defense travels. However, the injuries along the defensive line leave the group, as a whole, in question. If Calijah Kancey and Logan Hall or even one of the two can't go, then it's going to make this an even bigger challenge than it is.

The pass rush must be a factor, as well

Per NGS, the Bucs did what they usually do and blitzed the crap out of Jayden Daniels and co. to the tune of the league's seventh-highest rate (32.4%) that resulted in the seventh-highest pressure rate (38.2%). That only resulted in two sacks and a rate of 5.9%, however, with the latter number ranking 21st out of the 32 teams.

The Bucs' front seven is going to have to win its battles and match the Lions' physicality on offense if they want to win this game. If it can't then it better hope the offensive side of the ball is doing its thing or else it's going to be a very long day.

Which brings us to the second goal the Bucs have to accomplish if they want to beat the Lions on Sunday...

Bucs offensive line has to keep improving against what will be their toughest test yet

The Lions blitzed the Rams on just 12.9% of pass attempts, but still managed to yield a 35.5% pressure rate against Matthew Stafford and co. That's because the front four of Aidan Hutchinson, Marcus Davenport, Alim McNeil, and Levi Onwuzurike had a good night, logging 17 of the defense's 18 pressures on the night.

Things are going to get even better for Aaron Glenn's crew: Big (no pun intended) free agent pickup, D.J. Reader, is expected to make his Lions debut against the Bucs on Sunday.

"Yeah, I mean, I think the plan was, ultimately, if we couldn’t get DJ up last week... Tampa was always the target," Lions head coach Dan Campbell told reporters Monday. "So, providing there’s no setbacks, we’d like to get him going this week. He looked pretty good in practice."

Now, it's extremely vital to take into consideration the state of the Rams' offensive line on Sunday night. Entering the game, they were already down two of their top guys in Alaric Jackson and Rob Havenstein. They lost Joe Noteboom, Jackson's replacement, during the game and had to insert AJ Acuri, a practice squad player, into the lineup. On top of all that, star guard Kevin Dotson left the game early and Steve Avila, another starter on the interior offensive line, got hurt and left, too.

Talk about a damn headache, man.

It's suffice to say the Bucs offensive line will represent a much larger challenge in Week 2 and it will go a long way in determining just how effective the Lions defense is. Naturally, Hutchinson had a day against Acuri, racking up a team-high 1.0 sack and six QB pressures. That really hurt the Rams offense and was a big reason the unit struggled to score points for most of the night. Davenport also looked pretty damn good and he's healthy, which is typically bad for opposing offensive lines, as well.

The Rams' front five also couldn't get much of a push on Sunday night and that killed their chances at having an effective running game. It was clear they wanted to use the quick passing game to offset the Lions' pass rush/help the offensive line, but they couldn't run it, either, when they wanted to.

The Bucs offensive line is going to have secure the edges against Hutchinson, hold its own against Reader and McNeil, and pave the way for the run game when called upon. The good thing is the unit is completely capable of doing this - and it should do this, which will in turn help an ailing defense just trying to hang on, health-wise, at this point.

Final Word

Remember when these two teams played in the NFC Central, then dubbed the "Black and Blue" division? Well, that's the tone required to win this game. Whichever team is most physical and puts the other in its place will emerge as victors.

The Bucs are going to have to win both sides of the trenches, regardless of circumstance. We'll see how the rest of the week plays out in terms of injuries, but the mission stands, no matter what.