New tire compound expected to create major falloff for NASCAR playoff race at Watkins Glen

Goodyear is bringing a drastically different tire to Watkins Glen this weekend for the NASCAR Cup Series and it could change the entire complexion of the race.

First, the official description from a Monday press release from the tire manufacturer:

The racing at the Southern Tier, New York track will look dramatically different this year, with the new Goodyear tire producing three seconds of lap-time fall-off over the course of a run.  Fall-off will change the thinking of teams that may not just be able to back-time from the end of the race and pit when their fuel window opens up.  Tire wear will be a factor and tire management will come more into play as race runs progress.  Goodyear tested at The Glen this summer and this tire came out of that test, with overall positive feedback from the drivers who participated.

“In our ongoing efforts to introduce more fall-off, we tested at Watkins Glen in June and came out with a new tire that will accomplish that goal,” said Greg Stucker, Goodyear’s director of racing.  “Based on our test, and a subsequent WFT test with the manufacturers, we should see around three seconds of fall-off per lap over a run.  That, of course, can mean more passing throughout the race.  It’s always tricky on road courses as drivers take advantage of a limited number of ‘passing zones,’ so the increased fall-off should lead to more comers and goers as some drivers manage their tires and gain on the field as the runs go on.”

Three seconds is quite a lot.

At one point, during the initial test earlier in the year, which was conducted with Tyler Reddick, Austin Cindric and Daniel Suarez, the number six seconds was thrown around and then two for the follow-up wheel force test last week.

So, this weekend is still a bit of an unknown.

“Yeah, the Watkins Glen thing is interesting because they said it was six seconds and then they tested again last week and I heard much less than we thought but it’ll be interesting to see what actually happens,” says playoff driver Alex Bowman.

Assuming there is a significant amount of tire falloff, it will change how teams approach the ends of the stages. Typically, the drivers who feel they have the best chance to win will flip the stage , meaning they will pit before the stage break, so they can retain their track position at the start of the next stage and for the final run to the finish.

They do that because passing is so unreasonably challenging in this generation of car due to its increased mechanical grip and aerodynamic underbody properties. But flipping the stage also means giving up stage points, which is another interesting wrinkle to the race on Sunday, because there are drivers who may also feel compelled to take them if they’re available to them.

This is a playoff race after all and Denny Hamlin says these tires could change the race.

“I certainly think that it could definitely play a role in strategy,” Hamlin said. “It’s been so straightforward in the past that you just want to get to those stage points, and then you go ahead and pit.

“But certainly, if tires are going to matter like it seems like they might, it throws a whole new element in it — and it’s not a huge gimmicky element because you have to strategize around tire wear. The driver plays a huge role in that, so certainly I’ve got my fingers crossed that it’s a race that’s going to be unlike any road course we’ve seen.”

Christopher Bell said a lot of tire wear will place those who flip the stage at a disadvantage if fresher tires mean that much coming behind them.

“If there is tire deg., which we’re expecting there to be, then yes, there will be a huge incentive to not jump the stage to have fresh tires at the start of the next stage,” Bell said. “On the same breath, the road courses and having that yellow flag – the stage breaks – it really entices a lot of different strategy calls.

“I’m sure that might hurt the ability to flip the stages if we have high tire deg but there are going to be some people that try it if you’re mired at the back.”

In other words, as Tyler Reddick puts it, there might be less strategic deviation because no one is going to want to be on the wrong side of the degradation.

“Watkins Glen, I feel like is a bit more straight forward,” said the regular season champion. “It seems like the tire we’re going to go with is going to be much different than we’re used to. So, I mean, it’s very possible with that it takes a little bit different formula than what you’ve seen in the past to win there so that has the potential.”

Bur defending champion Ryan Blaney still sees the potential for a lot of mix-up, especially if cars are falling off at different paces.

“If you can grab some stage points, you’re probably going to do that, and it depends where you’re running,” Blaney said. “If you’re top five and you feel like you’ve got winning pace, maybe if the leader pits you have to make a big decision of, do you go grab nine or 10 stage points and restart in the back? You have to see how big the fall-off there is.

“Like, ‘Hey, is two laps going to be three-quarters of a second of fall-off if you have two-lap older stuff?’ I don’t know. Is that going to overcome the track position? That’s all in-game decisions that crew chiefs and drivers have to kind of assess and make.”

Truex thinks the difference will be enough to create speed disparity, which is why there would be less incentive to flip the stage.

“We’ve gone there the last few years with no tire fall off, so you can’t get close enough to a guy to make a pass,” Truex said. “It’s simple as physics, right? You go up through the esses and lose five-to-six car lengths, it’s over. So, it’s going to help us be able to make passes if our car is good and that’s what we need at those kinds of places.”

With such a drastically different tire, NASCAR is increasing the amount of practice time, two 20 minute sessions across two groups; so 40 minutes overall; for teams to get a better idea of what the true falloff number is.

And two-time Cup Series champion Joey Logano isn’t buying any number until he sees it himself after 36 cars are all on the track together and laying down rubber on Saturday before qualifying.

“It just really depends on what it is when we get there, right?” Logano said. “I mean, you’ve got to assume that somebody in practice will go for a long run, and you’ll get to see what that is, right? Maybe it’s you who does it, but we’ll see, and you’ll see what the tire deg is.

“But I think until then, you know, we’re all speculating a little bit, right? … Is it going from five seconds of fall-off to three seconds? Or one second? We don’t know that for sure, right? We can speculate as much as we want, but we don’t know that till we get there, and that’ll adjust your strategy from there.”

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