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NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model backing Ravens, Buccaneers in Week 2, 2024
By CBS Sports Staff,
9 hours ago
Week 1 of the 2024 NFL schedule went well for the perceived stronger teams, as favorites went 10-4-2 against the spread. However, the largest favorite of the week not only failed to cover the spread, it lost outright, as the New England Patriots upset the Cincinnati Bengals, 16-10, despite being 8.5-point underdogs. Should NFL bettors expect favorites to dominate again in the Week 2 NFL odds? Only three of the Week 2 NFL spreads are 2.5 points or less, according to the SportsLine consensus, one being the Arizona Cardinals, who are 1.5-point favorites against the Los Angeles Rams in the latest Week 2 NFL Vegas odds.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 184-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 38-22 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 2 NFL picks is that the Ravens (-8.5, 41.5) cover at home versus the Raiders. The Raiders came into the season with relatively low expectations, particularly on offense. They didn't do much to help their case in Week 1, mustering just 10 points in a 22-10 loss to the Chargers. Quarterback Gardner Minshew had a respectable day, completing 75.8% of his passes for 257 yards. The Raiders, however, failed to get much going on the ground and they let Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins pile up 135 yards on the ground.
Those struggles could easily repeat themselves against a physical Ravens team that came within about an inch of forcing overtime against the defending champion Chiefs in Week 1. SportsLine's model projects that the Raiders score just 17 points in this matchup, helping Baltimore win by double digits and cover the spread in well over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here .
Another one of its Week 2 NFL predictions: the Buccaneers (+7.5, 51) cover on the road versus the Lions . Tampa Bay had the No. 2 scoring offense last week in its 37-20 win over the Commanders behind a dominant performance from Baker Mayfield. The 29-year-old quarterback completed 24 of 30 passes for 289 yards and four touchdowns last week. Mayfield had a resurgence last season, setting career-highs in completion percentage (64.3%), passing yards (4,044) and touchdowns (28) last year in his sixth NFL season. After some concerns about losing his offensive coordinator with Dave Canales becoming the Panthers head coach, Mayfield showed Week 1 he still has the tools to succeed.
Tampa Bay went 8-2 ATS on the road last season and were underdogs in nine of those 10 contests. The Buccaneers' offense has strong continuity back from last season and that showed with Mike Evans having five receptions for 61 yards and two touchdowns and Chris Godwin recording eight receptions for 83 yards and a score last week. The Lions needed overtime last weekend to knock off the Rams, 26-20, and allowed 317 passing yards to Matthew Stafford. The model simulates the Buccaneers to cover almost 60% of the time. The Under (51) is also forecasted to hit in over 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here .
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