Preview: UFC 306 ‘O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili’

UFC 306 on Saturday provides plenty of intrigue, and for once, that does not entirely have to do with the proceedings inside the cage. The Ultimate Fighting Championship finally plans to get out of the box with its production by running the Sphere in Las Vegas, and it looks to be an ambitious one-off project due to the work needed to pull it off and the excessive costs that have made headlines ahead of the show. That alone provides reason to tune in, but the top few fights sell themselves to an extent, particularly the main event. Sean O’Malley seemingly arrived as not just a champion but an elite fighter with a complete performance in his first title defense, but Merab Dvalishvili is the first of what figures to be many tough challengers for the bantamweight belt. Beyond that, there is the long-overdue trilogy fight between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko for the women’s flyweight title, and an intriguing featherweight showcase pitting divisional stalwart Brian Ortega against recent arrival Diego Lopes . Add in some fun fights to open up the main card, and there is not much to complain about.

Now to the UFC 306 “O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili” preview:

UFC Bantamweight Championship

#6 P4P | Sean O'Malley (18-1, 10-1 UFC) vs. #1 BW | Merab Dvalishvili (17-4, 10-2 UFC)

ODDS: O’Malley (-135), Dvalishvili (+114)

UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!
O’Malley’s rise has felt somewhat preordained, at least promotionally, but he has fully lived up to the hype. Now that he’s champion, it’s time for “Suga” to start making his case for greatness with a tough test here. O’Malley was a clear standout on the first edition of Dana White’s Contender Series back in 2017, showing some potential as an exciting striker with some charisma. The UFC quickly decided it was in the O’Malley business, slotting him in high card placements that were above the level of his accomplishments. O’Malley looked solid in his first few appearances, but then disaster struck in his win over Andre Soukhamthath , as he was lucky to survive to a decision victory after suffering a major foot injury late in the fight. O’Malley was then a forgotten man for about two years, owing to both his injury recovery and drug testers railroading his career over a minor issue, but on the plus side, he did appear to put the time off to good use, looking sharper than ever and absolutely electric as a knockout artist. Unfortunately, things quickly went sideways for O’Malley once again, this time in what figured to be a big test against Marlon Vera . “Chito” did well to damage O’Malley with a lot of hard leg kicks, leading him to eventually crumple due to injury. That meant another layoff, and at this point, it was an open question if O’Malley’s body would hold up well enough for him to realize his potential. Upon his return, the UFC slow-played O’Malley to an obvious degree, giving him a series of showcase fights that served their purpose—at least up until the point when he was suddenly thrown into the deep end against former champion Petr Yan at the end of 2022. While O’Malley might not have deserved the decision win that went his way in a close fight, it’s hard to argue that it was by far the most impressive victory of his career. He had not reacted particularly well to the few moments of true adversity that he had experienced throughout his career, and he put in three complete rounds against a dedicated buzzsaw of violence. The result also gave O’Malley enough credibility to be rushed into a title shot against Aljamain Sterling , and he cashed in on the opportunity in impressive fashion. After a slow first round, O’Malley blasted Sterling with a knockout counter to close the show, validating both the hype and the comparisons to Conor McGregor . O’Malley’s first title defense was a bit controversial, at least in the leadup. With no shortage of potential next challengers in a deep division, the call was made to give O’Malley the opportunity to avenge his loss to Vera, who had won his most recent fight but seemed to be clearly outside the list of next contenders. Even adjusting for that, O’Malley’s victory over Vera in March continued his streak of raising the bar. It’s not a shock that he was able to pick Vera apart at will early on, but it was highly impressive that he kept it up for five rounds, addressing both the cardio and durability issues that had been ongoing threads throughout his career. O’Malley is putting together something special, and the best part of it all is that he has a murderer’s row of contenders lined up to try and unseat him. Next up is the long-awaited title shot for Dvalishvili.

It’s a bit funny to go back six or seven years and look at Dvalishvili as he was starting in the UFC, given where he is now. For one, “The Machine” earned his contract when UFC President Dana White watched him score a 15-second knockout via spinning backfist, which was false advertising of sorts. While it reflects Dvalishvili’s balls-to-the-wall approach, the Georgian—both then and now—has been at his best as a relentless wrestler and rarely a finisher. Given how unstoppable Dvalishvili has looked in recent years, it’s still a bit shocking to look back and see that he started his UFC career with two straight losses. Frankie Saenz threw enough volume to win a decision in the face of Dvalishvili’s massive advantage in control time, and a controversial result against Ricky Simon saw Dvalishvili lose via submission when he was unconscious in a guillotine choke at the final horn. Since then, Dvalishvili has been firing on all cylinders with 10 straight wins, some of which have been absolutely inhuman performances where the Georgian has set a breakneck pace and broke multiple records in terms of takedown volume. Dvalishvili’s last two victories have been particularly difficult to comprehend. A main event win over Yan saw Dvalishvili attempt 49 takedowns while completing 11 of them, and after a rough first round against Henry Cejudo in February, he wound up exhausting and bullying a former Olympic champion wrestler without much trouble. The other impressive part is that Dvalishvili was clearly a top contender even before raising the bar with those two performances. He likely would have gotten his title shot by now if not for his friendship with Sterling, who at one point was even willing to leave the weight class as champion in order to give his friend the opportunity at championship glory. Of course, no fighter is unbeatable, so there are some drawbacks to Dvalishvili’s approach. Even as he has developed as a striker, there still isn’t much in the way of defense in his game. To his credit, Dvalishvili hasn’t really needed it. While some opponents, most notably Marlon Moraes , have cracked him hard in the early going, Dvalishvili has kept bouncing back surprisingly well and going back to breaking his opponent with pace. However, giving O’Malley those openings is an entirely different matter. It’s just a question of whether or not the champion’s precision is enough to close the show on his challenger before Dvalishvili gets things rolling downhill. O’Malley’s gas tank looked much improved against Vera, but history still shows that his cardio is breakable. Given that Dvalishvili is only surviving in this fight if he keeps finding takedowns and that O’Malley is a solid enough grappler to fight the Georgian off, it will probably take multiple rounds of a fast-paced grind for the challenger to find the champion’s breaking point. While it wouldn’t be a shock if Dvalishvili found some takedowns early on, his lack of an immediate submission threat and the rinse-and-repeat nature of his wrestling game means that O’Malley will keep finding opportunities as the fight resets; and it’s hard not to see O'Malley landing a knockout blow when given so many chances to do so. The pick is O’Malley via second-round knockout.

Jump To »
O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili
Grasso vs. Shevchenko
Lopes vs. Ortega
Zellhuber vs. Ribovics
Rodriguez vs. Osbourne
The Prelims

UFC Women’s Flyweight Championship

#1 WP4P | Alexa Grasso (16-3-1, 8-3-1 UFC) vs. #3 WP4P | Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-1, 12-3-1 UFC)

ODDS: Grasso (-135), Shevchenko (+114)

UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!
A long-overdue trilogy fight takes place for the women’s flyweight title, and while this remains a well-matched series of bouts, it does seem like the time is right for the division to move on. By 2023, it did seem like Shevchenko’s dominant reign over the proceedings at 125pounds was nearing its end. Initially neck-and-neck with Amanda Nunes as the top bantamweight on the UFC roster, “Bullet” cut down to flyweight in 2018 and immediately announced herself as the division’s biggest problem, laying a one-sided thrashing on Priscila Cachoeira that remains one of the most dominant displays in the promotion’s history. After eventually winning the vacant title against Joanna Jedrzejczyk , Shevchenko went about turning back all comers without much issue over the better part of the next three years. The marketing of Shevchenko as some sort of explosive striker was a bit of false advertisement, save for her brutal head kick finish of Jessica Eye in her first title defense, but it was hard to argue that she was levels ahead of the field at 125 pounds. She would neutralize her opponents with powerful counters to slow down the pace, and failing that, her ace in the hole has always been an impressively strong clinch and wrestling game, with both submissions and ground-and-pound to back it up. Taila Santos was one of Shevchenko’s more anonymous title challengers by the time her number was called in 2022, but that fight was the first sign that the division was catching up to her. Santos’ sheer physical strength took away her typical safety valves in close quarters, and the result was a split decision Shevchenko victory that easily could have gone the other way. With a new wave of young athletes making their way up the ranks, the expectation was that someone would eventually hang with Shevchenko enough physically to walk away with a win. However, it didn’t seem like many people thought that would happen against Grasso. Once Grasso got her shot in March 2023, it quickly became apparent that it would be a tough fight. Shevchenko found success slowing Grasso down with her wrestling, but the Mexican prospect proved to be the more effective striker early on. Shevchenko eventually found her groove and seemed ready to coast out a close win in the championship rounds—until she tried a spinning kick that Grasso had scouted perfectly, as the challenger dove onto the champion’s back and eventually found a submission.

That massive upset was a nice moment for Grasso, whose UFC career had been a rollercoaster up until that point. When Grasso was signed by the UFC in 2016, the expectation was that the top strawweight prospect would serve as the face for the next wave of Mexican mixed martial arts. However, that idea seemed to quickly fall by the wayside, as Grasso followed up an electric UFC debut with a frustrating loss in what seemed set up to be a showcase against Felice Herrig . From there, Grasso’s strawweight career was generally a case of one step forward, one step back. Every win that seemed to indicate Grasso was turning a corner would soon be followed by a loss, generally through getting outwrestled. After some weight-cutting issues caused Grasso to move up to flyweight in 2020, it quickly became apparent that 125 pounds was now her ideal weight class. Beyond the additional speed advantage she now had as a striker, performances like her 2021 win over Maycee Barber showed she now had the requisite physicality to hang with the division’s best athletes in the clinch and on the mat. That led to a fairly clean rise up to her shot against Shevchenko, and with her title win, it seemed like her destiny had been fulfilled as one of the faces of the UFC’s promotional efforts South of the Border. First, there was the matter of Shevchenko’s well-deserved title rematch in September 2023. The fight itself was a solid affair, with Shevchenko winning the balance of the fight but Grasso finding more potent individual moments before it ended in a controversial split draw. As with some other high-profile controversies, the result might have captured the spirit of the fight well given what an even affair it was, but the path to getting there didn’t make much sense, with Grasso being given a 10-8 fifth round by one judge for what was far from the most dominant round of the fight. A year later, this is still a fascinating pairing, even though it does feel like the bloom is off the rose with the delay of getting this third fight done, thanks to injuries and a season of “The Ultimate Fighter” that didn’t do much to build any sort of marketable dynamic between the two. As for the fight itself, it’s hard not to just revisit how the second fight played out. Shevchenko’s wrestling will serve as a perennial threat to eat up the clock, while Grasso’s craft as a boxer and unwillingness to be cowed figures to land her some big moments for as long as this fight is on the feet. After nine rounds of fighting that have essentially been even, this can’t be anything but a coinflip. Shevchenko probably deserved to win the last fight, but between the former champion’s neutralizing style always riding a razor’s edge in terms of being enough to win, and the fact that she’s at the age where there could be a level of athletic slippage that she cannot afford, the current champ gets the benefit of the doubt. The pick is Grasso via decision.

Jump To »
O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili
Grasso vs. Shevchenko
Lopes vs. Ortega
Zellhuber vs. Ribovics
Rodriguez vs. Osbourne
The Prelims

Featherweights

#13 FW | Diego Lopes (25-6, 4-1 UFC) vs. #3 FW | Brian Ortega (16-3, 8-3 UFC)

ODDS: Lopes (-175), Ortega (+145)

UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!
Some unfinished business gets settled here after the fairly insane goings-on at UFC 303, as Ortega and Lopes were slated to lock horns in June. However, an Ortega illness led to Dan Ige stepping in and taking on Lopes on such late notice that the fight wasn’t confirmed when the card started. At any rate, that was the latest twist in what has been a frustrating few years for Ortega, whose injury absences have distracted from the fact that he’s still quite effective. Ortega’s initial rise through the ranks was quite impressive, if only for how it defied the odds. A potent finisher, particularly on the ground, “T-City” probably didn’t win a round in any of his fights leading up to his first title shot, scoring finishes either quickly or as part of a major comeback. Ortega’s luck finally ran out against Max Holloway , who avoided all of his challenger’s best weapons and laid on a one-sided beating that forced the Californian to take nearly two years off and retool. Ortega looked unrecognizable in his comeback fight—both in terms of approach and thanks to shaving off his signature locks—and put together an excellent striking performance against Chan Sung Jung , enough so that he was rushed right back into another title shot. The script for Ortega’s second title shot—this time against Alexander Volkanovski —was much the same as the first. Ortega had his moments but mostly got outclassed by another all-time great. An attempted rebound against Yair Rodriguez ended quickly thanks to Ortega suffering a major shoulder injury, which in turn led to another year-plus layoff before a rematch in February that almost went south. Ortega injured his ankle in the cage while warming up during fighter introductions, but that made his ensuing performance all the more impressive. He nearly got knocked out immediately but bounced back to turn things into an ugly grind and eventually exhaust Rodriguez, subsequently earning a third-round submission. Ortega’s career is at a strange point where nearly all the vibes are negative but he remains one of the toughest outs in the sport, and it’s unclear if that latter point will be enough against Lopes.

A Brazilian by birth who has planted roots in Mexico, Lopes was on the verge of a callup for years until the UFC finally signed him in May 2023—with the caveat that his debut would come against rising contender Movsar Evloev , who figured to outwrestle him for three rounds. That was generally the outline of the fight, but Lopes’ aggression on the ground scored him a few near-finishes and some status as a cult favorite, and his profile has only risen with his hot streak over the last year. Lopes has an approach built around bringing chaos to his opponents almost immediately, and that resulted in three straight sub-two-minute wins before a decision victory over Ige. That’s where the cracks started to show for Lopes, at least for the first time since he has had high expectations. The Ige fight happened under admittedly rare circumstances, but it did show that Lopes’ balls-to-the-wall style does tend to have diminishing returns against opponents able to survive and settle their way into the fight. It has taken multiple rounds of high-volume abuse or an injury to finish Ortega thus far, so no matter how much success Lopes has early on—and he figures to have some—the surest bet here seems to be Ortega winning this over the long haul, likely whenever he’s able to adjust to and counter Lopes’ aggression. The pick is Ortega via second-round submission.

Jump To »
O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili
Grasso vs. Shevchenko
Lopes vs. Ortega
Zellhuber vs. Ribovics
Rodriguez vs. Osbourne
The Prelims

Lightweights

Daniel Zellhuber (15-1, 3-1 UFC) vs. Esteban Ribovics (13-1, 2-1 UFC)

ODDS: Zellhuber (-265), Ribovics (+215)

UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!
This should be an entertaining affair, as Zellhuber remains a prospect to watch in search of a true breakout performance. Tall and rangy for the division, Zellhuber looked excellent—particularly for being just 22 years old at the time—in his win on the 2021 edition on the Contender Series, staying patient and picking apart Lucas Almeida for three rounds. However, “Golden Boy” was unable to build on that performance. It would be nearly a year until Zellhuber made his proper UFC debut, and he never got going against Trey Ogden , a neutralizer that could match him in terms of size and reach. That was a necessary learning experience, as have Zellhuber’s subsequent fights, which have tended to follow the same pattern. Zellhuber has started slow and struggled to figure out his range, but he warms up by the second round and looks quite excellent down the stretch. After dispatching Francisco Prado in February, Zellhuber faces another aggressive Argentinian in Ribovics.

The Argentinian scene is quite top-heavy at the moment, and Ribovics has wound up in a similar spot as many of his countrymen. His level of competition leading up to his UFC debut was quite weak, but he’s a standout athlete who has learned the value of aggression and jumping on a finish when the opportunity presents itself. Most of Ribovics’ UFC career to date has seen him get outwrestled early, only to take over fights down the stretch. However, his May win over Terrance McKinney didn’t bother with any of that, ending in just 37 seconds with a brutal knockout. Ribovics should be able to cause some damage, but this looks like another fight—much like the one against Prado—where Zellhuber’s combination of size and speed should eventually see him through some early trouble. The pick is Zellhuber via decision.

Jump To »
O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili
Grasso vs. Shevchenko
Lopes vs. Ortega
Zellhuber vs. Ribovics
Rodriguez vs. Osbourne
The Prelims

Flyweights

Ronaldo Rodriguez (16-2, 1-0 UFC) vs. Ode Osbourne (12-7, 4-5 UFC)

ODDS: Rodriguez (-135), Osbourne (+114)

UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!
It will be interesting to see if Rodriguez can make much hay in the UFC’s flyweight division. “Lazy Boy” had some hype as a 21-year-old prospect heading into a 2020 showing on the Contender Series, but he lost his fight and wound up needing four more years to make it onto the roster. He has proven himself to be an entertaining fighter, even if his approach is often inconsistent in terms of success. He’s dedicated to applying pressure but doesn’t throw much volume, often waiting for his opponent to make a move before throwing a big counter or hunting for a takedown. Add in that Rodriguez is fairly slow-footed for a flyweight, and that makes for some frustrating affairs as he attempts to chase down his opponents—at least until he finds a moment to break the fight wide open and score a finish. That makes for a fascinating dynamic against Osbourne, since each man’s strengths match up well against the other’s weaknesses.

Osbourne is an obvious physical talent with a rare combination of size and speed for the division, and while he has landed a few knockouts against the lower reaches of the UFC’s ranks, he’s typically content to stay at range and lean on his length to frustrate opponents over the course of three rounds. If an opponent can eventually track “The Jamaican Sensation” down, that’s typically when things start to go south. Beyond a few knockout losses earlier in Osbourne’s UFC career, his last two fights have seen him get taken down and submitted. The main question here involves whether or not Rodriguez can eventually close ranks and find that type of finish. The read is that Osbourne is too fast—and Rodriguez is too slow—for the Mexican prospect to find his big moment. The pick is Osbourne via decision.

Jump To »
O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili
Grasso vs. Shevchenko
Lopes vs. Ortega
Zellhuber vs. Ribovics
Rodriguez vs. Osbourne
The Prelims