Pac-12 Expansion Candidates: Which Programs Make the Most Sense as Future Additions?

This year’s massive round of college conference realignment left Oregon State and Washington State as proud programs without a true home, the last remaining schools in the Pac-12. An eventual merger of some sort with the Mountain West Conference seemed inevitable, after the “Pac-2” signed a scheduling agreement with the MWC for the 2024 season. Now, the Beavers and Cougars are raiding that league for at least four members.

Overnight reports indicated that Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State were set to apply for Pac-12 membership. That news became official early Friday morning.

Oregon State will face Oregon in the Civil War, and Washington State and Washington square off in the Apple Cup on Saturday, with both games being contested as nonconference battles for the first time in over a century. Thursday morning’s news puts the Pac-2 programs on stable footing as they prepare for those games with the rivals that left them behind.

The four outgoing Mountain West schools will each owe the league $17 million, and the Pac-12 will have to pay $10-12 million per school due to the scheduling arrangement between the two conferences, according to Yahoo’s Ross Dellenger .

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The Pac-12 can’t afford to stay at six for long. The league is currently in a two-year NCAA grace period, by the end of which it must expand to a minimum of eight teams. Given the fact that it is only taking four Mountain West schools to start, the Pac-12 could go in numerous directions for schools seven and eight.

UNLV is the Pac-12’s most logical expansion candidate, but watch San José State

Every sports league seemingly wants a piece of Las Vegas, and the Rebels football program is peaking at the right time in the MWC. Barry Odom went 9-5 in his first season at UNLV in 2023, winning a division title. The Rebels are off to a 2-0 start this season, and firmly in the conversation for the Group of 5 automatic bid for the College Football Playoff. Odom, the former coach at Missouri, could get looks for Power 4 jobs this offseason, but UNLV should remain an attractive program, especially if it upgrades its conference membership.

San José State is a bit more under the radar as far as Mountain West schools go, but the program is on solid footing under Ken Niumatalolo, the former head coach at Navy. San José is part of the huge Bay Area television market. The move also would likely have significant support among political stakeholders in California.

AAC powers Memphis, Tulane may be best programs available to Pac-12

If the ACC can add Cal, Stanford and SMU, the potential for the Pac-12 to dip into the Central Time Zone doesn’t feel out of bounds.

The Memphis Tigers have been rumored as a candidate for Big 12 expansion in recent seasons, so a jump to the Pac-12 to join other top Group of 5 programs would be something worth considering. Memphis boasts one of the better NIL programs at the Group of 5 level and has earned 10 consecutive bowl trips.

Louisiana (especially New Orleans) is top-notch recruiting territory and another potential addition to the Central Time Zone for television windows. The Green Wave also have been successful in recent years, winning 23 games from 2022-23 including the Cotton Bowl over USC to cap the ’22 season.

Texas schools such as UTSA, North Texas could open valuable recruiting territory for Pac-12

With a prime location outside of Dallas, North Texas would help expand the league’s footprint into fertile recruiting territory and open up more television windows in the Central Time Zone. The Mean Green can be a consistent winner on the field, and the program has the resources and facilities (including a relatively new stadium and an indoor practice facility) to compete at a high level in the Group of 5 ranks.

The UTSA Roadrunners have strong fan support in another large media market and boast 40 victories under coach Jeff Traylor since ’20.

The Rice Owls bring a strong academic component to the league and have been competitive recently under coach Mike Bloomgren with back-to-back bowl trips. However, odds are Rice is behind North Texas and UTSA in the pecking order from additions in Texas.

Texas State is an up-and-coming program settled less than an hour from Austin and San Antonio, and an enrollment of nearly 40,000 undergrads. The Bobcats could be peaking at the right time as well after knocking off UTSA and inserting themselves into the conversation for top Group of 5 school in 2024.

Pac-12 expansion could shake up FCS

The remaining Mountain West programs likely will look toward Conference USA and potentially the Sun Belt for new members, but they also could take a swing at top FCS members from conferences such as the Big Sky and Missouri Valley. North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Montana and Montana State could be candidates for the MWC to backfill its membership.

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