Cook Political Now Forecasting GOP Senate Majority As Key State Moves Toward the Republicans

AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib, File

The Cook Political Report updated its forecast for U.S. Senate races on Thursday and the change for the key Montana race effectively flipped the majority in the chamber to the Republicans.

“Today, we are moving the Montana Senate race, a match-up between Democratic incumbent Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy , from Toss Up to Lean Republican. This move puts Republicans in an even stronger position to win back control of the Senate, regardless of the result at the top of the ticket,” wrote Cook Political in an update.

The Democrats currently hold a 51-49 seat majority with 48 seats held by Democrats and three independent senators caucusing with them. The Democrats have a very difficult electoral map to retain their majority this cycle as they are defending 23 seats while the GOP is only defending 11. Of the Democrats’ 23 seats up this November, seven of them are open contests with no incumbent seeking reelection.

The seat vacated by Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in West Virginia is all but certainly flipping to the GOP, which would create a tie in the chamber – meaning the majority would be dependent on who becomes vice president. The movement of Montana toward the GOP would give them a majority in the chamber, regardless of who wins the White House and becomes the president of the Senate.

Jessica Taylor, Cook’s senior editor covering the Senate, wrote of the shift, “Democrats began this cycle with their toughest map in decades, having to defend the red states of West Virginia, Montana and Ohio — in addition to a handful of other presidential battleground states. Less than two months before Election Day, Democrats are defying political gravity in some key states, such as Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin. But glaring problems remain in those deep red states.”

“A loss in only Montana would give Republicans an outright majority of 51 seats, and their margins could climb as high as 54. The range of possible pickups is now between one and four for Republicans,” added Taylor, noting that the GOP is poised to not only flip the chamber but to gain additional seats over the majority.

Read Taylor’s full analysis here .