NFL Week 1 certainly had its mix of highs and lows for both fans and bettors.
Seeing Jordan Love go down last week was a bummer, but Caleb Williams getting his first win as a rookie was cool to see.
What might Week 2 bring?
Well, from a betting perspective, I've got a few wagers I like — including backing one favorite that the public is riding as well.
Let's dive into it.
(All times ET)
Sunday, Sept. 15
Colts @ Packers (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app )
Call me square, call me the Average Joe, call me whatever you’d like for this pick. But I’m taking the public favorite in the Colts here.
This number was Green Bay as a 4-point favorite before quarterback Jordan Love injured himself near the end of the team's season-opening loss to the Eagles . Without Love in the lineup, the number has moved seven points toward the Colts.
The Packers' two options at QB are Malik Willis and Sean Clifford . They have a fantastic offensive play designer and schemer in head coach Matt LaFleur, but even he can’t scheme up success with those options.
Also, Willis was just added to the roster a few weeks ago, so he doesn’t have a strong background in this offense.
The Colts are coming off a close divisional loss to the Texans in Week 1. Houston converted a third-and-11 on its final drive to seal the game. Otherwise, the Colts would have gotten the ball back, needing a field goal to win.
Indy's offense wasn’t outstanding in Week 1, outside a few super-human plays by QB Anthony Richardson . That was Richardson’s first start since early last season and rust was expected.
The Colts offense should play better in Week 2, even on the road.
PICK: Colts (-3) to win by more than 3 points
Chargers @ Panthers (1 p.m., CBS)
J.K. Dobbins : Over/Under 50.5 rushing yards
The Chargers are on the road to face the Panthers, and I’m wagering on Jim Harbaugh bludgeoning Carolina on the ground.
Harbaugh teams will run the football until they get stopped and then run it one more time before passing it. In Week 1, the Chargers called more than 50% run plays, and even when they passed the ball, it was only for 144 yards.
Ground and pound, especially on the road.
Carolina's run defense ranked 25th in DVOA last season and just lost star defensive tackle Derrick Brown for the year. The rest of that interior defensive line is just dudes and the Chargers offensive line has the clear matchup advantage.
There’s a possibility of some rain on Sunday in Charlotte as well, so I’d expect the Chargers to gear up to run the ball.
PICK: J.K. Dobbins Over 50.5 rushing yards
Steelers @ Broncos (4:25 p.m. CBS)
Mike Tomlin’s Steelers as underdogs? Sign me up. I’ll take that wager every time I can, just like I did last weekend when Pittsburgh went to Atlanta .
The Steelers not only won but covered the game. It wasn’t a pretty win, but it was the perfect Mike Tomlin game as a ‘dog. That game saw six field goals, 270 total yards and 41 rush attempts to 23 pass attempts.
Pittsburgh’s defense allowed just 10 points to the Falcons. Atlanta quarterback Kirk Cousins played like a 36-year-old coming off a major lower body injury, and the Steelers defense and pass rush were able to take advantage.
But this week is different, as they're not the underdog.
The Steelers head to Denver as a field-goal favorite. They presumably will run back quarterback Justin Fields , who did his best to not screw up the offense on Sunday. He had a few deep connections to George Pickens , but otherwise, there wasn't much in the passing game.
The Steelers are back on the road against a better defense in Denver. And the Broncos have film on the Steelers offense after one week, and settling for more field goals won’t help Black and Yellow cover this game.
The Broncos lost 26-20 to Seattle on Sunday in rookie Bo Nix’s first start. Predictably — just like his fellow rookie quarterbacks making their first starts — it wasn’t the most efficient performance. However, he showed some grit late in the game, ultimately scoring and covering the spread.
Now, he’s back home in a more comfortable environment and can improve in Week 2.
Denver will need a plan to block T.J. Watt , and I trust Sean Payton more than the Falcons offensive staff to create that game plan. Nix’s ability to run will be utilized, and I expect the Broncos to keep this close.
PICK: Broncos (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points, or win outright
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @ GeoffSchwartz .
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