Predictions, things to watch in Minnesota vs. Nevada

The Minnesota Golden Gophers football team is riding high after a blowout win over Rhode Island last weekend and now readies for the Nevada Wolf Pack this weekend.

While Nevada isn’t an FCS opponent like Rhode Island, the Wolf Pack have struggled this season and enters this weekend 1-2 with losses to SMU and Georgia Southern, sandwiching a win over Troy. All three of their games have been decided by one score.

On the other hand, the Gophers have just this game against the Wolf Pack as a tune-up before Big Ten Play starts next weekend against Iowa.

Related: Gophers football game vs. Iowa set for primetime

Saturday’s game at Huntington Bank stadium is scheduled to start at 2:30 p.m. and will be broadcast on BTN, but first, let’s dive a little deeper into the Gophers-Wolf Pack matchup and make some predictions.

Why I’m confident

Josh: Gophers defense

Minnesota’s defense overall has been really strong so far this season, with the score against North Carolina not even indicative of how the unit played. Entering this weekend, the Gophers defense has allowed just 193.5 yards per game, the ninth-lowest average in the country.

In particular, though, stopping the run will be important this weekend, as that has been the Wolf Pack’s strength thus far.

Minnesota has ranked better against the pass thus far, but their defense is still top-50 against the run, too. The better the Gophers are able to lock down Nevada’s run game and get out to an early lead, the more the Wolf Pack will be forced to pass, which plays right into the strength of Minnesota’s defense.

Tommy: Time of possession

The Gophers love to run the ball and that should still be the mantra for P.J. Fleck's team heading into Week 3.

Sophomore Darius Taylor made his 2024 debut last week as he looks to carry momentum into his second game. When the Gophers have the ball, then run it, and it bleeds time off the clock.

Last week against Rhode Island, the Gophers held a 40:32 to 19:28 advantage in time of possession. They nearly had the advantage over the North Carolina Tar Heels as well, 1:02 off.

If Minnesota builds a lead specifically, they should be able to run the clock continuously by running the ball and making efficient short passes.

Why I’m concerned

Josh: Tackling struggles

While the Gophers defense has been strong thus far overall, tackling hasn’t been consistently good.

According to Pro Football Focus, the Gophers had 20 missed tackles against North Carolina, although only five last weekend. Still, Minnesota’s team tackling grade (53.1) is ranked 118th in the country — not great.

Nevada will test the Gophers, not only with their running backs but also their quarterback, who is the team’s second leading rusher. The Wolf Pack’s lead back, Savion Red, has also averaged over 3 yards per carry after contact in the past two games and has 11 missed forced tackles on the season.

If the Gophers can’t stop the run and make the Wolf Pack one-dimensional, Nevada can definitely make this a tight game.

Tommy: Gophers rushing offense vs. Wolf Pack rushing defense

While they run the ball a lot, Minnesota has yet to have many explosive run plays so far.

On the season, the Gophers have carried the ball 71 times but only for 194 yards, averaging 2.7 yards per carry.

The Wolf Pack hasn't been terrible in defending the run so far this season. They rank 59th in the FBS in opponent yards per rush (3.7) and 43rd in opponent rushing yards per game (110.7).

If Nevada can shut down the run game and force quarterback Max Brosmer to throw more often, it could have the Gophers working outside of their comfort zone in terms of offensive game plans.

Key matchup

Josh: Gophers WR Daniel Jackson vs. Nevada CB Michael Coats Jr.

The Gophers defense may have its hands full but the offense should be able to feast, particularly through the air.

Nevada has given up just over 250 passing yards per game this season, ranking 103rd in the nation at stopping the pass, and Coats has been their top corner. The senior allowed just two catches for 11 total yards through two games but gave up four for 45 last weekend. He still hasn’t allowed a touchdown, however.

Jackson, meanwhile, is Minnesota’s leading receiver, totaling eight catches for 95 yards over two weeks. He needs 83 receiving yards to reach 2,000 for his career, eight catches to move into a sixth-place tie for career catches by a Gopher with 147, and one touchdown to move into a seventh-place tie for career touchdowns with 15. A 100-yard game would also be his sixth, which would tie him for seventh all-time at Minnesota.

Tommy: Gophers defense vs. Wolf Pack offense

Minnesota's offense has been sporadic in the first two games but its defense has showed some consistency in giving the offense momentum.

Nevada's offense is ranked 18th overall in third down conversion rate (53.19%) while Minnesota is 102nd in the same category on defense (50%).

The Wolf Pack run the ball better than they pass it but the Gophers have held their opponents to 82.5 rushing yards per game, ranked No. 32 out of all FBS schools.

The Gophers will win a lot of their games because of its defense this season and this will be another critical area Minnesota will have to succeed to get win No. 3.

All eyes on

Josh: Max Brosmer

After a shaky Gophers debut, the quarterback was lethal against Rhode Island, throwing for 259 yards and a pair of touchdowns while completing over 78% of his passes.

As mentioned above, Nevada’s passing defense hasn’t been good this year, so there should be plenty of opportunities again for Brosmer.

Entering the weekend, he’s one of just 14 Power 4 quarterbacks to still not have thrown an interception while attempting more than 50 passes, and his adjusted completion percentage is fourth-best in the FBS. Can he shred the Wolf Pack defense and give the Gophers another big day?

Tommy: Gophers offensive line

As Fleck mentioned earlier this week, the offensive line continues to shuffle around as the Gophers prepare for Big Ten play set to begin next week.

The Wolf Pack don't have much of a pass rush as they rank No. 103 in sack percentage through two games (1.92%). Pass protection looked great last week against Rhode Island as Brosmer was only sacked once all game but he was sacked six times in the season-opener against UNC.

The run game needs to open up more as well, so look for Fleck to be switching out linemen as the game goes on as he readies his best five to six before Big Ten play.

Related: Minnesota's P.J. Fleck still tinkering with offensive line before Big Ten schedule begins

Prediction

Josh: 31-17 Gophers

If the Gophers grab control early, they shouldn’t have any problem but Nevada’s offense could make things interesting if given the chance. With how Minnesota’s defense has played overall thus far, I think the Maroon and Gold will be able to send the Wolf Pack home howling in agony.

Tommy: 28-24 Gophers

The Wolf Pack keep it close late but ultimately lose their fourth consecutive one-score game this season at Huntington Bank Stadium. The Gophers are able to capitalize through the air and dominate the clock just enough to start the season 3-0 heading into a primetime matchup with Iowa next weekend.