Briggs' picks: Believe it, Toledo football is beating Mississippi State

STARKVILLE, Miss. — Team Blade is on the road and ready for Saturday night.

Here goes with our weekly college football picks, beginning with Toledo’s big one here in the Magnolia State:

Toledo (2-0) at Mississippi State (1-1), 7:30 p.m., Saturday, ESPNU

■ Line : Mississippi State by 11½

ROCKET RUNDOWN

■ Watch Blade columnist David Briggs and reporter Kyle Rowland break down Toledo's game at Mississippi State in our weekly view series here .

While this poor-sighted squirrel has found a nut in correctly predicting a few of Toledo’s almost-upsets at bigger schools — including the Rockets’ near-wins at Notre Dame and Illinois — I have never picked them to actually beat a power-conference program.

Heaven help UT, that changes today.

The Rockets are going to beat the Bulldogs.

Sure, on paper, there’s a reason the home team is almost a two-touchdown favorite. Mississippi State features the 34th-most horsepower in the country, according to the 247 Sports Team Talent Composite, which rates teams based on how their players were ranked in high school. Toledo is 87th.

But sometimes timing is everything.

The Rockets are catching the Bulldogs not just on an awkward week — Mississippi State just played a late-night game at Arizona State arrived back in Mississippi at dawn Sunday morning — but in a period of transition. The Bulldogs under new coach Jeff Lebby were picked to finish 15th in the 16-team SEC (and would have forecasted last if folks knew Vanderbilt would beat Virginia Tech in Week 1).

Toledo is in a transition season of its own. But if the defensive line can wreak havoc up front — and I suspect it can — I like the Rockets’ chances of nabbing their second win over an SEC team (Arkansas in 2015).

At least, this should be a good one.

■ Pick : Toledo 28, Mississippi State 27

Arkansas State (2-0) at No. 17 Michigan, noon, Saturday, Big Ten Network

■ Line : Michigan by 23

The Wolverines officially have their long-term coach, with Sherrone Moore finally signing his contract this week. How about a quarterback? For all of its questions, that’s the one Michigan needs to begin to answer against an Arkansas State defense ranked 100th nationally (397 yards per game).

■ Pick : Michigan 38, Arkansas State 10

No. 24 Boston College (2-0) at No. 6 Missouri (2-0), 12:45 p.m., Saturday, SEC Network

■ Line : Missouri by 16

It is Saturday’s lone top-25 matchup, and it should be a good one. Mizzou may lead the nation in total defense, but Buffalo and Murray State — the Tigers’ first two cupcakes — are like Boston College the way I resemble George Clooney. The Eagles under Bill O’Brien are the real deal, as they showed Week 1 at Florida State in flat dominating the line of scrimmage (BC rushed for 263 yards while holding FSU To 21 yards).

■ Pick : Missouri 27, Boston College 24

No. 4 Alabama (2-0) at Wisconsin (2-0), noon, Saturday, Fox

■ Line : Alabama by 16

Another week, another SEC rout in Big Ten country. In its first two games, Wisconsin was trailing Western Michigan in the fourth quarter and labored past FCS South Dakota. Hard to imagine the Crimson Tide not dropping the hammer here and quieting what will be an absolutely electric crowd at Camp Randall.

■ Pick : Alabama 31, Wisconsin 10

Note: Bowling Green and Ohio State are off this week.