Tropical Storm Ileana set to soak Arizona: Flash floods and thunderstorms expected this weekend

According to the Arizona Weatherman, between Saturday, 14 September 2024, and Tuesday, 17 September 2024, expect Tropical Storm Ileana moisture to move into Arizona from the south and cause heavy rain with localized flooding and thunderstorms.

Model rain total estimates between Saturday and Tuesday morning, 14-17 Sep 2024.Photo byPivotal Weather

My previous forecast, “Arizona's monsoon isn't over yet: More tropical moisture on the way by this weekend,” that I put out last Monday, was spot on about the development of Tropical Storm Ileana in the Eastern Pacific. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Tropical Storm Ileana is forecast to move into the Gulf of California, then become a depression by Sunday, and then move into Mexico. However, this tropical moisture associated with it will move into Arizona between Saturday and Tuesday, bringing in rain and potential flooding, especially in the state's mountains.

The graphic above depicts where the models forecast the heaviest rain amounts for the state. Inside the highlighted area, expect the potential for 1-2 inches, and in the higher terrain, even up to 3 inches over the Saturday to Tuesday time frame. Specifically, Sierra Vista expects between .10” to .50”, Benson .10” to .50”, Tucson .30” to 1”, Phoenix .20” to 1”, Payson .40” to 1.50”, Flagstaff .10” to .50”, Prescott .10” to .50”, Kingman .01” to .20”, and Safford .10” to .40”. These estimates are rainfall totals between Saturday and Tuesday morning. Localized flooding and embedded thunderstorms may also impact certain areas of the state with the heaviest rain potential on Sunday and Monday.

When you are traveling this weekend or camping on the Mogollon Rim, please be aware of local radar and NWS warnings, and be sure to stay safe. This is a developing situation; heavier rain totals, especially in the mountains, can lead to flash flooding and dangerous situations.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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