Climate change could kill chocolate

Halloween is coming up and we have a spooky scenario for you. Could you imagine a bag of Halloween candy with no chocolate?

Climate change might seem like a vague concept, or an issue that won’t impact us until some future date. In reality, it is already having an impact. For example, climate issues are making chocolate more expensive and could eventually kill the beloved treat.

Cultivation of cocoa began at least 2,000 years ago in the Americas. Today, chocolate popular across the world as an ingredient in desserts, drinks and more. In the U.S., the World Wildlife Fund estimates that people consume 58 million pounds of chocolate during the week of Valentine’s Day alone.

Late last year, CEO Magazine reported on increasing pressure on farmers in the West African cocoa belt, where 70% of the world’s chocolate is grown. Rising temperatures there affect humidity and rainfall and therefore have a negative impact on cocoa plants.

“Climate change is also responsible for pests and diseases that in certain cases have reduced crop yields by up to 50 percent,” said the magazine.

In 2016, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association said that over the next several decades, places where cocoa is grown are expected to grow warmer and drier. It explained that the plants only thrive in specific, rainforest environments. Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Indonesia are where most coca is grown.

“Research highlighted in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability report indicates that, under a ‘business as usual’ scenario, those countries will experience a [3.8 degree] increase in temperature by 2050, and a marked reduction in suitable cultivation area,” said the NOAA. Avocados are also expected to become endangered by 2050 .

Peter Läderach published research in 2011 and 2013 regarding the increasingly dire situation facing the world’s chocolate supply.

“Läderach and his team report that areas expected to show improved cultivation conditions are often hilly terrain. One example is Ghana’s Atewa Range,” said NOAA. “It’s a forest preserve where cultivation isn’t permitted. Cacao-growing countries may have to choose which priority matters more: growing a product to meet a global demand, or preserving natural habitat.”

According to the National Confectioners Association, each cacao tree produces 2,500 cocoa beans, and 400 make one pound of chocolate. Trees are delicate and the 40 to 50 million people who depend on cocoa for their livelihood already deal with an estimated 30% crop loss annually.

“Just last year, both Ivory Coast and Ghana received record rainfall prior to the autumn cocoa harvest. That left fungal tree infections and rotting cocoa fruit, and the global supply of cocoa beans dwindled. Big chocolate manufacturers stockpiled beans, and the price for raw cocoa more than tripled in a single year,” said a report this week from NPR .

Facing the potential loss of chocolate is something many of us likely wish wasn’t happening during our time on the planet. However, as Gandalf told Frodo in The Lord of the Rings , “all we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us .”

Apart from doing our part to mitigate climate change by reducing carbon emissions, researchers are looking into specific ways to save chocolate.

NPR’s report focused on Planet A Foods , a Germany-based company that is focused on making a sustainable chocolate substitute. While their recipe is proprietary (they tweaked it between 700 and 800 times), the company’s website said it begins with ingredients such as oats. In “CHOCOLATE: The Consuming Passion”, author Sandra Boynton said some consider carob, a brown powder made from the pulverized fruit of a Mediterranean evergreen, a substitute for chocolate.

As for the future of actual chocolate, there is still hope.

A 2021 article from JSTOR Daily noted that as cultivated cocoa will lose ground due to climate change, wild cacao has a chance of surviving. Farmers might be able to use trees that survive in the changing climate for the next generations of chocolate production. NOAA also noted that a strategy that calls for planting cacao near other rainforest trees could also help the plants thrive and cut down on deforestation.