Are Vikings ready for 49ers? Predictions, what to watch for on Sunday

The Minnesota Vikings dominated the New York Giants in Week 1 but this weekend brings a much tougher test.

The San Francisco 49ers have made it to the NFC Championship Game each of the past three seasons and four times in the past five years, winning it twice, and they’re among the favorites to get there again.

Was Week 1 a sign that the Vikings could make some noise this year or were they just beating up on a team that’s projected to be one of the league’s worst in 2024-25? This weekend will tell us a lot.

Related: Vikings' 3 keys to victory in home opener vs. 49ers

Why I’m confident

Josh: Aaron Jones

For the second week in a row, my answer is really Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores but I’ll go with Aaron Jones.

The Vikings hosted the 49ers in primetime last year and pulled off the upset, forcing many of San Francisco’s top players into some of their worst performances of the season. That was despite Minnesota’s top two running backs, Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers, each failing to eclipse 40 yards rushing.

This time, the Vikings not only have Jones, who racked up 94 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries in his debut last week for the Purple and Gold, but Minnesota also has a healthy Justin Jefferson, unlike last season.

Jones had Pro Football Focus’s best offensive grade by a running back in Week 1 (90.9) and trailed only Los Angeles Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins in yards per carry and yards after contact per carry.

In four career regular-season games against the 49ers, Jones has averaged 4 yards per carry and 5 yards per catch, and Jefferson should help keep the 49ers from loading the box on him.

Tommy: U.S. Bank Stadium

The Vikings are playing their home opener and the purple faithful will be shaking U.S. Bank Stadium.

It's expected that 49ers fans will travel in droves like they did last year but it didn't matter as Minnesota won that game anyways.

The home-field advantage will especially matter for a defense that thrived last week on the road against the Giants. Yes, it's a taller task in defeating the 49ers, but the Vikings will have the home crowd on their side in a loud environment.

The 49ers haven't won in Minnesota since 1992, losing seven straight matchups on the road since.

Why I’m concerned

Josh: Vikings O-line

A lot of options to pick here with everything San Francisco brings but I’m again going with the Vikings offensive line, particularly the interior.

The one new starter for the Vikings in Week 1 compared to last season, left guard Blake Brandel, was fantastic, allowing zero pressures and earning PFF’s fourth-highest grade for an offensive lineman last week. Minnesota’s tackles, Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill, were also strong, per usual. Meanwhile, right guard Ed Ingram and Garrett Bradbury had terrible showings, which unfortunately isn’t anything new.

Those two combined to allow 10 pressures, including a sack and a quarterback hit each that resulted in Sam Darnold’s lone interception against the Giants, earning two of the 10 lowest pass-blocking grades from PFF in Week 1.

Ingram’s 9.3 pass-block grade was the lowest by any guard and Bradbury’s 26.8 was the second-lowest among centers. Yes, Ingram’s run-blocking was OK but his PFF grade there was still worse than 100 other offensive linemen last week and Bradbury’s was worse than all but 13 linemen.

With San Francisco’s front, the Vikings offense could be in for a long day if Minnesota’s O-line doesn’t play amazing.

On Friday, O'Neill and Ingram were listed as questionable heading into the matchup, which could also provide further concern with this positional group if they can't play.

Tommy: Lack of proven Vikings WR

Minnesota has officially ruled out receiver Jordan Addison (ankle) for Sunday's game, meaning more pressure will be on receivers outside of Justin Jefferson.

Jalen Nailor will need to step up in Addison's absence, as well as others like Trent Sherfield Sr., Brandon Powell, and Trishton Jackson. Going up against a tough 49ers defense and secondary will create more of a challenge for the Vikings offense without one of their top pass-catchers.

The Vikings dominated through the air last year without Jefferson, going to Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson. This time, Minnesota is without the latter two and will need someone else to rise to the occasion as Jefferson is likely going to be double-teamed all game long.

Darnold could have a tough time otherwise if receivers can't get open while also facing an exceptional pass rush.

Related: Vikings WR Jordan Addison out against 49ers, 3 other starters questionable

Key matchup

Josh: Brock Purdy vs. Vikings defense

Last season, the Vikings held Purdy to his third-lowest passer rating of the season and were one of just three teams to get him to throw multiple interceptions.

Even though they only sacked him once, Minnesota pressured him 12 times and forced him to get rid of the ball quickly.

This year, the Vikings have better pass-rushers and cover corners, which should allow defensive coordinator Brian Flores to mix things up even more to try to confuse and pressure Purdy.

How successful Minnesota is against the third-year quarterback will go a long way toward determining the game’s outcome.

Tommy: Vikings running game vs. 49ers defense

In order for the Vikings to be successful on offense, they'll need the running game to balance out the passing attack.

As Josh previously noted, Jones had a great first game in purple last week against the Giants but it'll be a taller task against a superior defense.

All eyes on

Josh: Sam Darnold

Darnold looked great against the Giants but, again, it was the Giants. He’ll make his home debut for the Vikings against one of the best defenses in the league, and one that could put a lot of pressure on him.

How will he handle it? And, will he get Jefferson more involved? Minnesota’s star wideout wasn’t needed as much in Week 1 with the game well in hand but the Vikings will have to rely on him a lot more in this one to be successful, especially with Addison out.

Tommy: Jonathan Greenard

Greenard will be making his home debut on Sunday against a talented right tackle in Colton McKivitz.

The 49ers tackle played well against the Jets last week but was called for a holding and false start penalty while at home. With a talented edge rusher in Greenard (and likely others like Dallas Turner shifting around) and playing at a hostile U.S. Bank Stadium, McKivitz could be in for a greater challenge on Sunday.

Greenard could be an impact player that changes momentum for the Vikings, much like linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel, who had an interception return for a touchdown last week.

Related: WATCH: Vikings’ Andrew Van Ginkel with a ridiculous pick-6 against Giants

Prediction

Josh: 23-20 Vikings

U.S. Bank Stadium should be rocking and I think that will give the Vikings the slight edge that makes the difference in this one. I think this will be a back-and-forth game but a late field goal by Will Reichard — and maybe a defensive stand to seal it — will be the difference.

Tommy: 28-10 49ers

I'd love to give the Vikings a benefit of a doubt that they have the advantage in this one but I think the 49ers will end their seven-game road losing streak against Minnesota on Sunday in dominating fashion. The injuries are too costly for Minnesota — even though the 49ers are likely to be without superstar Christian McCaffrey — and the offense could become one dimensional. It'll cause the defense to be on the field for too long, creating opportunities for San Francisco's offense.