Severe thunderstorms for Arizona on Sunday from remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Ileana

According to the Arizona Weatherman, this weekend, especially on Sunday into Monday morning, expect severe thunderstorm potential for Southern and Central Arizona. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have the potential for strong convective winds, hail, and localized flooding.

Model data for thunderstorms on Sunday, 15 Sep 2024.Photo byPivotal Weather

For Saturday, expect isolated thunderstorms in Southern Arizona, with only a slight chance of severe possibility. The isolated thunderstorms have better potential for Santa Cruz, Pima, and Cochise Counties. The coverage and intensity increase from Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

On Sunday, expect more scattered thunderstorms for the areas depicted above with a higher potential for severe weather. The stability indices indicate a moderate to severe possibility. The DCAPE values are 1,300 to 1,700. There is a loose potential for supercell storms, and there are also positive hail indicators. Therefore, the Arizona Weatherman expects a better chance for severe, strong, gusty winds >60 mph, up to one-inch hail, and localized flooding of 1-2 inches with up to 3 inches for the higher terrain. The more substantial rain potential is looking at Central Arizona, with Gila County in the crosshairs over the evening hours into Monday morning.

As the remnants of Tropical Storm Ileana’s moisture surge northward, expect the possibility of flash floods, especially in the higher terrain. These could produce hazardous conditions for those camping and in danger-prone areas. Keep an eye on the local radar and NWS warnings, and be safe!

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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