Severe Weather Expected in Arizona: Showers and Thunderstorms on the Horizon in Drastic Change

The weather forecast indicates an increase in unsettled conditions as a weak shortwave trough moves in from the west.Photo byJohn FowleronUnsplash

The National Weather Service in Phoenix has issued an update on the weather conditions expected for the coming days. After a relatively calm Saturday with temperatures near normal, southern and central Arizona should prepare for significant weather changes starting Sunday.

The weather forecast indicates an increase in unsettled conditions as a weak shortwave trough moves in from the west, accompanied by moisture from Tropical Cyclone Ileana, which is expected to dissipate along the west coast of Mexico. Despite the cyclone’s weakening, its moisture will enhance weather activity across the region.

Starting Sunday morning, Arizona will see a rise in atmospheric moisture, potentially leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The peak of this moisture and instability is anticipated in the afternoon, with conditions supporting strong to severe thunderstorms. Areas south-central Arizona may experience severe winds and marginally severe hail. While the severe weather threat is expected to diminish by evening, isolated showers and thunderstorms may persist into the night.

On Monday, a strong Pacific trough will bring additional showers and thunderstorms, especially in Pinal and Gila Counties. However, drier air will gradually move into the region, likely reducing convection west of Phoenix by early afternoon. The drier air will eventually push through the lower deserts by Monday evening, ending most rain chances but possibly leaving some isolated activity over higher terrain.