Justin Trudeau is not going anywhere

NANAIMO, British Columbia — Justin Trudeau’s hold on power is not stable.

Everywhere he goes, he faces questions about why he won’t step down. As President Joe Biden's exit from the race for the White House gave Democrats new life, Trudeau dug in as his Liberals floundered.

When the prime minister gathered much of his caucus of 154 members of Parliament on the West Coast last week to strategize for the fall legislative session, Quebec MP Alexandra Mendès arrived with a message. “My constituents do not see Mr. Trudeau as the person who should lead the party into the next election," she advised.

It was a timely field report as the party holds its breath ahead of a pivotal by-election test Monday in a Montreal district not far from Mendés. If the Liberals lose in the historically Liberal stronghold, all bets will be off about the prime minister's future.

Trudeau insists the by-election won’t push him out. "I'm not going anywhere," he told a Montreal radio station on Friday. "I've got a fight to lead against people who want to hurt this country, who want to hurt our communities and who want to take the country in directions that, quite frankly, are exactly the opposite of where the world needs to go."

Trudeau spent summer on the phone, in one-on-one conversations — trying to reassure MPs. Then at the tail end of summer, the progressive New Democratic Party pulled out of a deal that had them propping up Trudeau's minority Liberals. Now the prospect of an election hangs over everything.

Not one Liberal MP during the three-day retreat, Mendès included, would publicly call on Trudeau to step down. There was no hint of rebellion. Wayne Long, the only sitting MP to openly call for Trudeau's resignation, skipped the retreat.

Asked about Trudeau's future, Nova Scotia MP Jaime Battiste let slip that the boss has earned the right to "go out on his own terms."

But privately, MPs acknowledge that on the doorsteps in their districts the undercurrent is clear: Whatever the prime minister is selling after almost nine years in power, Canadians are no longer buying.

The hopeful members of the team point to economic indicators finally turning their way, and to policies that would be popular if only they could get the message across.

Winning a fourth victory in a row would require a dramatic swing in momentum.

The national mood is the polar opposite of 2015 when Trudeau vaulted his Liberal party into power four years removed from a disastrous third-place finish.

His government acted quickly to establish gender parity in his Cabinet, legalize marijuana, launch a national child care program, expand child benefits and set the stage for an ambitious climate agenda.

These days, Canadians are focused on “change.”

The gradual decline of the Liberals places Trudeau in the company of a long list of sinking incumbents who left the global pandemic with one foot in the political grave, from former U.K. Tory PM Rishi Sunak, to France’s Emmanuel Macron scrambling for survival, and Biden, who was forced out of the U.S. presidential race.

Trudeau’s rival Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives lead by an average of 17 points nationwide — in most demographics, across almost every region, according to the 338Canada poll aggregator .

Against such a bleak projection, why wouldn't Trudeau bow out?

Even after a year of reporters pelting him with the question, the prime minister's answer hasn't changed: He's not done yet.

Leading from behind

Parliament returns Monday with Liberals on the back foot. A summer of downer headlines followed a disastrous by-election loss of a safe Liberal seat in June. The polling kept rolling.

Now Trudeau’s team is losing key players. National campaign director Jeremy Broadhurst just called it quits. Rumors are rampant that Trudeau is poised to lose Pablo Rodriguez, his top minister in the must-win province of Quebec.

On Monday he faces yet another critical test. The Montreal by-election appears to be a three-way race. If the Liberals lose, Trudeau's haters will turn up the heat.

The government enters the fall without the stability of a working deal it had brokered with the NDP that powered a legislative agenda for two-plus years.

In exchange for progressive policy gains — prescription drug coverage for diabetes medication and contraceptives, labor protections, and dental insurance for routine procedures for some groups, including seniors and children — NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party propped up the minority Liberals.

These programs have yet to help Singh or Trudeau politically, while the deal brewed frustrations within the ranks of their parties. On Sept. 4, Singh announced he was “ripping up” the agreement.

The governing deal had been set to expire in June 2025, offering Trudeau a working timeline ahead of the next federal vote. Now, an election could come at any time.

Poilievre, the ascendant Conservative leader with a massive polling lead, has dared the New Democrats to join him in bringing down the government as soon as possible.

Poilievre intends to force a vote of non-confidence — a procedural tool that would essentially force an election — at his earliest opportunity.

Unity in the ranks

Immigration Minister Marc Miller, a senior voice at the Cabinet table and childhood friend of the prime minister, told POLITICO the caucus has absorbed the summertime loss in Toronto-St. Paul's — a Liberal-held seat for 30 years.

He insists the caucus is united behind Trudeau, whatever the PM's baggage.

"What we keep hearing is that MPs are ready to run through the wall for the prime minister, which is a testament to their loyalty," Miller said.

Trudeau and his deputy prime minister, Chrystia Freeland, spent the summer on the phone with their caucus. Chris Bittle, a Liberal MP first elected in 2015, said the party brass gets the nub of the problem that needs solving.

“They understand the challenges we face as a party, but more importantly, the challenges Canadians face. We have to demonstrate it — we're the ones seeking reelection," Bittle told POLITICO. "There's an understanding of the reality of that."

Bittle was part of a Liberal wave that came to power as Trudeau's charismatic leadership drew in millions of new voters. Many of those MPs still owe him their jobs.

How to sell good news

Time appears to be the Liberals' worst enemy. Ask MPs why they're optimistic and many will point to improving economic indicators. Covid chaos is firmly in the rear view.

Inflation has returned to Earth after peaking at 8.1 percent in 2022. The Bank of Canada is ratcheting down interest rates, which most economists predict will fall to 3 percent by the middle of next year. That could mean less alarming grocery bills and mortgage payments.

In a nod to MPs who want the party and government to think more about economic issues, Trudeau has tapped Mark Carney, a former central banker in Canada and the U.K., to lead a task force on economic growth that feeds the next election platform.

Liberals have seen polling that suggests households are starting to feel the positive impact of a rebate created to offset the costs of Trudeau’s signature climate policy, a hefty federal carbon levy.

Poilievre has complained that a controversial consumer-facing tax on pollution has driven up the cost of living — a claim contested by economists who blame a cocktail of global factors and, to a lesser degree, government spending.

He fires up rally-goers at events all over Canada with a simple slogan: "Ax the tax."

Getting rid of the measure, as well as the rebates, is high on Poilievre's to-do list if he takes power. The fiery Conservative has yet to offer an emission-cutting alternative.

Trudeau and his crew, as well as many economists, have for years insisted that 80 percent of households are financially better off after cashing the quarterly rebate check.

Procurement Minister Jean-Yves Duclos, an economist by trade, tried taking the offensive in Nanaimo. He told reporters that Poilievre "fears Canadians are starting to understand that [the rebate] is good for affordability. It's also good for reducing pollution."

Miller acknowledges Liberals need to communicate better.

"There is always a constant tension between the end-of-the-month debates and the end-of-the-world debates," he told POLITICO. "The environment discussions have often dealt in the latter without actually showing people demonstrably what we can do for people at the end of the month."

Trudeau's team has been saying similar things for months, but the polls have not budged. Now, they're running out of time.

When the Liberal-NDP governing deal was humming along, the clock seemed to be on the government's side.

The next vote is scheduled for Oct. 20, 2025, when the impact of those positive economic indicators could be working its way into household budgets.

Now Liberal MPs are reckoning with the uncertainty ahead. The moment a united opposition pulls the plug, they're at the mercy of voters.

Poilievre's team current lead would add up to 212 of 343 seats in the next House of Commons, 338Canada projects. The Liberals trail at 77 seats. The Bloc Québécois, a Quebec-only party that advocates for the province, would scoop up 36. The NDP trails in fourth at 16.

What is Trudeau waiting for?

Liberal MPs see the writing on the wall as they check in with constituents. They understand that voter fatigue is nothing new for Canada.

In 2015, voters were sick of Stephen Harper, the former prime minister who was trounced by Trudeau. Another former PM, Brian Mulroney, left office after his approval ratings plummeted beyond repair. His successor, Kim Campbell, was annihilated in 1993.

Some prime ministers last longer than a decade. Only two in Canadian history have won four elections in a row.

Even after a terrible summer, many of Trudeau's MPs stand behind him — even when off the record, when they speak with more candor.

Ask why their leader is sticking around despite the slog of a minority parliament and the stench of unpopularity, they all agree on one thing. Trudeau loves a scrap and a comeback.

For now, their boss still wants the fight.