Twins enter pivotal week in playoff hunt

This could be the week that ultimately decides whether or not the Minnesota Twins make the playoffs.

Of course, with 13 games left on the schedule, every game is crucial for the Twins.

Entering Monday, Minnesota has a 2.5-game lead on the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners for the third and final American League wild card spot and a 4.5-game lead on the Boston Red Sox. The club is also 2.5 games behind Kansas City for the second wild card spot and holds the season tiebreaker over the Royals, but even that seems like wishful thinking the way the Twins have been playing lately.

It should be great news for the Twins that, in the next two weeks, they play nearly half of their games against two of MLB’s five worst teams over the past month (Boston and Miami) if not for the fact that they’ve been worse than both in that span.

Since Aug. 18 — the day the Twins’ bullpen imploded and the team failed to close out a four-game sweep of the Texas Rangers — Minnesota is 8-17, the third-worst record in MLB, ahead of only the historically bad Chicago White Sox and the Los Angeles Angels.

Additionally, the Twins have to face Cleveland and Baltimore in their other two series. Cleveland is 7-2 against the Twins this year and could deliver a knockout punch over these next four days; Baltimore swept the Twins in their only meeting of 2024 back in April.

Meanwhile, Detroit and Seattle have each won seven of their last 10 games. The Mariners still have dates with the Yankees and Astros as well as the A’s and Rangers this season while the Tigers are considered to have the third-easiest remaining schedule — at Kansas City and Baltimore this week before hosting Tampa Bay and the White Sox.

The Twins are still in a favorable spot — FanGraphs gives the Twins an 84.4% chance to make the playoffs, as of Monday, compared to 10.4% for Detroit, 8.4% for Seattle and 2.4% for Boston — and have ace Pablo López slated to pitch twice this week. Yet, it certainly seems the other way around to many Twins fans, doesn’t it?

Again, every game is huge from here on out and the race for the final playoff spot will likely come down to the last weekend of the season, but this may be the week that makes the difference for the fate of the 2024 Twins, for good or bad.