As if Week 1 wasn't a big enough humdinger to NFL survivor pools everywhere — with the Patriots shocking the Bengals in Cincinnati — Week 2 delivered a foursome of fierce upsets that left countless entrants' jaws on the floor.
Sincere condolences to your entry if your Week 2 selection was the Cowboys, Ravens, 49ers, or Lions, four bonafide Super Bowl contenders entering the season. All those mighty squads fell, to the Saints, Raiders, Vikings, and Bucs, respectively.
If you've been paying attention to this column the past couple weeks, you might still be standing. We suggested shying away from the sheep-slaughter that ended up being the Bengals in Week 1, and last week we mentioned that the Chiefs and Ravens might be best saved for later (KC eked out a one-point win over Cincy on Sunday, while we know what happened with Baltimore).
MORE: Worrisome stats after Cowboys' collapse in New Orleans
Survivor pools are not just about winning an individual week. They are about optimizing future value to stay alive as long as possible. Translation: try to avoid picking a team that has multiple high-value weeks on the horizon over a team that won't be an optimal choice the rest of the season.
Easier said than done, we get it. But, fret not! Resources like PoolGenius are in place to help your survivor journey. And by analyzing data like pick popularity and factoring long-term expected value, we can follow the basic week-to-week NFL survivor pool strategies and NFL survivor pool tips that help us achieve lasting success.
Let's take a closer look at Week 3's top teams, and break down which options might be optimal choices for this weekend and which ones might be best served for later on down the line.
All season long, The Sporting News is teaming up with PoolGenius to bring you the best weekly advice on all things survivor pools. PoolGenius subscribers have reported over $6 million in NFL survivor pool winnings.
NFL most popular Week 3 survivor picks
It's pretty easy to tell which picks will be the most popular ahead of a new NFL week. Lopsided moneylines and spreads often dictate survivor-pool action — attacking the opponent perceived as the weakest is a tale as old as time.
The Bengals entered Week 1 as 8.5-point favorites against the Patriots, the largest Week 1 opening line . Not surprisingly, that translated to the Bengals ranking as the most popular NFL Week 1 survivor pick. The Ravens were then the most heavily-favored team in Week 2 at -9.5. Both those teams lost (excuse us while we pat ourselves on the backs, since we suggested fading both those picks).
Here's the most heavily-favored teams for Week 3, along with their PoolGenius win probability odds:
| Team | Opponent | Spread | Line | PG odds |
| Bengals | Commanders | -7.5 | -400 | 75% |
| 49ers | Rams | -7.5 | -350 | 75% |
| Raiders | Panthers | -7.0 | -350 | 71% |
| Buccaneers | Broncos | -6.5 | -350 | 69% |
| Browns | Giants | -6.5 | -300 | 69% |
| Jets | Patriots | -6.5 | -275 | 71% |
| Seahawks | Dolphins | -6.5 | -275 | 73% |
| Bills | Jaguars | -6.0 | -275 | 66% |
If the goal was to simply pick a winner for this week, we would have plenty of good options from which to choose. However, we're looking at the big picture here — we want a win here and a charted roadmap to wins over the next 10-15 weeks. So, let's dive deeper.
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Bengals and 49ers both popular Week 3 NFL survivor picks
Not surprisingly, the Bengals over Commanders and 49ers over Rams already serve as two of the most popular picks for Week 3. Washington is coming off a 4-13 season, has a rookie QB under center and a brand-new head coach, and nearly three dozen new faces on its roster. The Rams, meanwhile, just lost Cooper Kupp to injury after already losing Puka Nacua in Week 1.
However, let's play Devil's Advocate here. Cincinnati has started the season 0-2, while Jayden Daniels and the Commanders came to life with a Week 2 win over the Giants. Cincy almost got a huge W over Kansas City at Arrowhead, but a costly late pass interference call let the Chiefs kick the game-winner at the buzzer.
What if that loss hurt the Bengals mentally more than we realize? What if Tee Higgins remains out next week? What if Daniels continues to improve against a Bengals D that lost to Jacoby Brissett and the Patriots at home just two weeks ago?
The 49ers give us equal pause. Sure, the reigning NFC champs seem like a good pick on the surface, given they're at home and Los Angeles is licking its wounds after losing its top two receivers. But Christian McCaffrey, the reigning Offensive Player of the Year, is also out — and top tight end George Kittle got banged up in Week 2. Sean McVay and the Rams beat the Niners in Santa Clara without Kupp as recently as January. Can we really trust San Francisco?
Both these teams will be heavy favorites a handful of times throughout the regular season. Other teams — ones that might not be as popular amongst mainstream survivor contestants — will probably have fewer future games in which they are strong favorites.
Raiders and Browns serve as strong Week 3 survivor picks
Two teams that seem like strong value based on current Week 3 projections and rest-of-season value are the Raiders and Browns. Vegas just upset the Ravens in Baltimore, now gets to host Bryce Young and the dysfunctional-looking Panthers at Allegiant Stadium. Cleveland got things going with a W over the Jags in Jacksonville, now gets to host the bumbling Giants in the Dawg Pound. Young and Daniel Jones might already be having nightmares of Maxx Crosby and Myles Garrett.
The PoolGenius NFL survivor season planner lists Vegas with 71 percent win probability odds and Cleveland with 69 percent win probability this week. Neither of those teams have a higher win probability between Weeks 4 and 18, meaning now is the time to consider taking one of them to win.
The Bengals draw Carolina in Week 4, the Giants in Week 6, and Denver in Week 17. Consider letting a perennially slow-starting Cincinnati team warm up and get healthy before picking them, especially considering better matchups await. The same applies for the Niners, who draw the Patriots in Week 4 (82% win probability) and the Bears in Week 14.
The only three other teams that spark intrigue? The efficient Bucs at home against the Broncos, the stifling defense of the Jets against the Patriots in a rivalry game, and the Mike Macdonald-led Seahawks against the Dolphins sans Tua Tagovailoa.
However, volatility comes with all three of those picks. Sean Payton and the Broncos tend to travel oddly well early in the season, the Pats have played hard for Jerod Mayo and it's a Thursday game, and the Dolphins still have plenty of weapons without Tua. For many reasons, the Raiders and Browns seem like the early leaders in the clubhouse for best survivor picks of Week 3.
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